Bloomberg View

The Murdoch Market Indicator

Can the actions of any one person, in this case Rupert Murdoch of Twenty-First Century Fox, ever signal anything meaningful about financial markets? Read more

Are You Ready to Be a Muppet?


Why would a small investor be interested in any of the vehicles that offer “hedge-fund-like” investments? These tend to underperform real hedge funds, which tend to underperform the broader market. Read more

The Threat of Rising Rates


One of the oldest rules on Wall Street is, don’t fight the Fed. When the Federal Reserve is cutting rates, you want to be long equities, and when it is Read more

Getting Over Hedge Funds


Big public pensions funds might be losing their unaccountable fascination with hedge funds after many of them underperformed while charging high fees. Read more

The Inflation Truther Crank Index


Quirks in the model for measuring inflation lead critics of President Barack Obama to mistakenly think inflation is much higher than it really is. Read more

The U.S. Corporate Tax Dodge


There are ways to lower the incentives for U.S.companies to shift the location of their incorporation overseas to avoid paying U.S. taxes. Read more

How to Profit in the Second Half


The first half of 2014 turned out very different from what the experts forecast at the start of the year. What will the second half hold for investors? Read more

When Correlations Lie


If you work in finance, you will invariably come across an example of single-variable analysis. Almost daily, we see terrible examples of this sort of analytic Read more

Embrace Your Mistakes


Owning up to your mistakes pays off; it has for Ray Dalio,head of the world’s biggest hedge fund. Read more

Geithner’s Stress Test Failure


Fornmer U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner argues that the bailouts were the best response to the financial panic. His claims don’t stand up to close scrutiny. Read more

The Parasites of Finance


I am always amazed at how some business models manage to hang on despite overwhelming proof of their lack of purpose or value added. Read more

Harsh Reality of Home Flipping


Home flippers bought houses that needed some TLC, fixed them up, then sold them for a profit. They mostly went extinct during the housing crash.  Read more

Banks Take the Economy Hostage


Prosecutors are considering bringing criminal charges against two overseas banks for charges ranging from perjury and fraud to laundering money.  Read more

U.S. on Highway to Flunking Out


Roads are crumbling, bridges are collapsing, and what was once considered one of the greatest achievements of any government anywhere has fallen into embarrassing disrepair.  Read more

Do You See a Bubble?


Newsletter writer Mark Hulbert recently raised the question of what the rate of initial public offerings means for the stock market.  Read more

Bear Market Excuses


Stock market investors have many theories about why the market has slumped. None of them are satisfactory. Read more

Bulls and Bears in Role Reversal


After large gains in the stock market, bulls and bears seems to have switched places — bulls are pessimistic, while bears act as if they have been vindicated.  Read more

Tech Stocks in Retreat 


New high-stocks have taken a beating this year, while old tech stocks that are profitable and pay dividends have held up. Read more

Attention Suckers: Please Send Us Your Money


With Facebook acquiring virtual-reality company Oculus, one of the all time great sucker plays — the “Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act,” signed by President Barack Obama on April 1, 2012 — has been revealed as the massive bait-and-switch it is.  Read more

Social Networks That Breed Anonymous Stupidity


Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen is none too happy these days. The inventor of the Web browser and co-founder of Netscape is miffed at the latest Silicon Valley fad: Anonymous sniping from within the tech industry. Read more

How Market Tops Get Made


With all the bubble chatter and talks of over-valued stock markets, I thought it was time to have a discussion with someone expert on the subject.  Read more

No, Market Highs Are Not a Bad Sign


The day’s trades had barely closed, when the Johnny one-notes began their usual litany of complaints. The market is long in the tooth, we are told; the bull cycle is Fed-driven, it’s temporary, its “toppy.” Read more

George Soros Is Not a Gangster


This weekend, I found myself in the rather unusual position of defending hedge funds. Before I explain why that is so unusual, allow me to explain what I was defending them against. Read more

Why ‘Peak-Earnings Models’ Are Nonsense


Lately, there has been a spate of research, analysis and commentary telling us that earnings are at a cyclical high that must mean revert. Stock valuations, therefore, are elevated and earnings will soon begin to fall, bringing stocks down with them. Read more

Nobody Likes Bonds!: Ritholtz Chart


Earlier this week, we noted that “the Consensus Hates Bonds.” That is a small part of the reason we decided to increase our exposure to specific types of fixed income this year after having been significantly underweight bonds in 2013 Read more

Want to Know Just How Rich You Are?: Ritholtz Chart


If you and your spouse have a quarter million dollars in real estate or other real assets, and the same in financial (401k, investments, etc.) and less than $50,000 in debt, this puts you at the 85th percentile in terms of wealth in America. Read more

The Best Housing Program You’ve Never Heard Of


Of all of the various government housing programs run by various federal agencies — Federal Housing Administration, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Housing and Urban Development and, of course, Fannie Mae — HARP is the most effective and efficient one out there.  Read more

Where the Poor Are: Ritholtz Chart


If you missed it over the weekend, Sunday’s New York Times had an amazing interactive graphic on where poverty is in the U.S. Over the past 50 years, the Read more

Am I Too Bullish?

John Coumarianos of the Institutional Imperative is a prudent value guy. He wonders aloud in a recent blog post if I am too bullish?. He raises a number of interesting points via (mostly) valid criticisms. Read more

Why Do Forecasters Keep Forecasting?


Its that time of year again! All of your favorite prognosticators will soon be trotting out their favorite (albeit worthless) prognostications. You are advised to ignore them with extreme prejudice. Read more

The Five Reasons Hedge Funds Underperform


Hedge fund performance — and underperformance — is an area of research I have been intrigued about for several years now. It is a complex, nuanced issue which many folks misunderstand. Read more

Ignore the Black Friday Hype


The media will have blanket coverage of all things retail. The intense focus with be a potent combination of PR hype and wishful thinking that if history holds will be entirely wrong.  Read more

The Bubble in Bubbles


If you have been paying any kind of attention to the mainstream media the past few years, you may have noticed quite a bit of bubble chatter. Read more

A Crazy Cool Bloomberg Leaderboard


One of the things I am most excited about is working with the Bloomberg Data Visualization crew to bring some interactivity to financial and economic data. Read more

Europe’s Recovery Not Dead Yet


Perhaps it’s my bias — my clients own Vanguard’s European ETF (VGK) — but most of you folks now breathlessly declaring Europe’s recovery already over had left them for dead six months ago. Read more

A Few Words About Valuation: Ritholtz Chart


The general consensus seems to be that CAPE — the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio — is elevated, stocks are overvalued, and a crash is imminent. This is a misreading of both valuation measures, as well as causes of crashes. Read more

Don’t Sweat Margin Debt: Ritholtz Chart


One data point that has found a home among the bearish community is the total amount of New York Stock Exchange margin debt. It is at record highs, and this supposedly means the end of the bull market is nigh. Read more

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