When “Fringe” Sentiment Dominates Psychology
It is never wise to ignore market, economic or voter sentiment. Discount it, yes. Put it into broader context, for sure. But ignore it at...
S&P500 Cycle Trend, 1997-2016
One of my favorite quarterly chart books, updated for Q2, from JPM: S&P500 Cycle Trend, 1997-2016 Source: JPM ...
Overestimating Recession Odds
My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at why so many pundits overstate the...
Are Earnings Forecasting a Recession?
One of the big concerns for investors is the health of corporate profits, which have declined in the three of the past four...
Months Between Recession
Source: Irrelevant Investor Mike Batnick writes: “Since 1926, recessions have happened on average every 59 months. We’re...
Recession Calls Are Premature
Invictus here: There are those of us, like me, who are always looking at numbers and data. It’s just in our DNA. What do the data...
Corrections and Recessions, Bear Markets and Crashes
Corrections, Bear Markets, Recessions and Crashes Volatility comes in waves. Bloomberg, January 22, 2016 The recent...