Another Bull$%^* McKinsey Prediction

The McKinsey Global Institute has just released a new report with the following gloomy prognostication:

Our analysis suggests that over the next 20 years, total returns including dividends and capital appreciation could be considerably lower than they were in the past three decades. This would have important repercussions for investors and other stakeholders, many of whom have grown used to these high returns.

This report does one of the things I like least: It makes a forecast.

Longstanding readers probably will be familiar with my aversion to this type of marketing hype. What’s more, it’s for events so far in the future that not many people who are reading the report today will remember to hold McKinsey accountable 20 years from now (unless the forecast is right, in which case someone there will surely trumpet it).


At least the report has a pretty colored graphic to go with it:

Source: McKinsey

There are a number of issues with this sort of report that deserve a more detailed critique.

First, it is filled with all manner of assumptions about growth in the U.S., Europe and Asia; some of them may be correct, but many of them are likely to be wrong.


Continues at Forecasters Keep Trying to Predict the Future