Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 7.20.18

Succinct Summations for the week ending July 20th, 2018

Positives:

1. Jay Powell’s Congressional testimony was uneventful (thank heavens for the little things);
2. Index of leading economic indicators rose 0.5%, beating expected 0.4%.
3. Jobless claims fell 8k w/o/w from 215k to 207k, the lowest level since 1969.
4. Retail sales rose 0.5% m/o/m, in line with expectations.
5. Industrial productions rose 0.6% in June, meeting expectations.
6. Business inventories rose 0.4% m/o/m, higher than the previous 0.3% rise.

Negatives:

1. Short rates are now at 10 year highs, the odds favor the Fed will keep tightening. Rate hike odds are about 60% for two more.
2. US dollar strengthened against a variety of currencies — particular weakness in Chinese Yuan will be a challenge if it continues
3. MBA home mortgage applications fell a seasonally adjusted 5% w/o/w.
4. Housing starts fell from 1.350M to 1.173M m/o/m, the lowest annualized rate since last September.
5. Same store sales rose 3.3% w/o/w, less than the previous 5.2% rise;
6. Natural gas in storage rose 46 bcf w/o/w, lower than the previous increase of 51 bcf

 

Thanks, Matt!