The intractable problem of polling sampling error and bias continues to be an issue for those investors trying to track possible outcomes to the election. The WSJ covered this issue extensively last month.
Consider for instance the pollster Gallup: On election eve 2000, they had then Governor Bush with a double-digit lead; Bush actually lost the popular vote by some 540,000 ballots.
Presidential Incumbent Approval Level (2001 – 2004)
click for larger chart
Source: Professor Pollkatz
DePaul University economics Professor Stuart Eugene Thiel has come up with a rather elegant solution to the issue of bad or biased polling: He maintains a “Pool of polls,” with every poll result from nearly all organizations simultaneously represented. It very cleverly solves a host of data problems.
Quote of the Day:
“The Political problem of mankind is to combine three things: economic efficiency, social justice, and individual liberty.”
–John Maynard Keynes