Provocative discussion in last week’s Barron’s, predicting GOP pick ups in both the House and Senate:
“THE STATE OF THE UNION is cause for anxiety. Our military is stretched thin in Afghanistan and Iraq; the profligate Congress has turned a surplus into a record deficit; and the economy is threatened by trade imbalances, job losses, high oil prices and a health-care affordability crisis.
In light of this doleful litany, you’d expect voters to “Throw the bums out!” The bums in this case are the Republicans, who control not only the White House but both branches of the legislature. But the throwing-out will not materialize, in our view. While it’s too soon to predict the presidential race, the GOP looks poised to strengthen its grip on Capitol Hill once all the votes are tallied after Nov. 2 and all the legal challenges are adjudicated.
Barron’s predicts that the Republicans will pick up seven additional seats in the House and three more in the Senate, adding to the gains of the 2002 midterm election.
In the House, we foresee the Republicans with 234 members to the Democrats’ 201, for a 53.8% majority, up from the current 227-205, or 52.5% majority. In the Senate, we believe the Republicans will end up with 54 members to the Democrats’ 46, up from the current 51-49 advantage.”
Why the GOP will strengthen its grip on Congress Kings of the Hill
Barron’s October 11, 2004