Business Week Annual Predictions


Last November (2003) I participated in Business Week’s annual market predictions — despite the fact that I find forecasting to be folly. Where the markets are 12 months from now is little more than a guess.

Hey, I’ll play along: My prediction was that the 2003 rally would have sufficient momentum to carry it into the 2nd Quarter of 2004 — peaking at Dow 11,100 — at which point it would run out of steam and sell off. I was one of only 3 forecasters (out of 65) who picked Energy as my favorite sector. My 12 month predictions were for Dow 10,403, the S&P500 at 1,150 and Nasdaq 2,200.

Since then, I hadn’t really thought about the contest, except to rue not making my second choice stock — Apple — as my best pick. Oh, well.

So you might imagine my shock when a friend (an investment strategist at another firm) called me yesterday to tell me I won the contest. Based on yesterday’s closing data — Dow 10,428, SPX 1,174, and Nasdaq  2,097 — my forecasts were off by 0.24%, 2.1% and 4.6%.

Wow, who da thunk it! Power, riches, fame — all will be mine! [Bwaahoohaahaa!]

Only they won’t. Turns out he’s wrong — the contest runs til next Friday (December 10) — at which point the Market, now in sync with my forecasts by the merest of coincidences, will have moved away from my present, prescient predictions.

It was fun while it lasted . . . 

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  1. 张家界 commented on Jun 19

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