My latest Street.com column, "Negative Sentiment Could Boost Market" is up at RM. It is loosely based upon Psychology & the Impact on Market Internals from earlier this week.
Here’s an excerpt:
"On Dec. 20, I noted in Columnist Conversation that my market perspectives remain a "bear sandwich" of sorts: "short-term bearish, then bullish into mid-2005, and bearish beyond."
I believe that the first part of that bear sandwich is now coming to an end. I sent a note to clients yesterday morning, suggesting that they should start getting long ahead of the State of the Union address. My thinking is that the next leg up is just about at hand, but I included a caveat that this leg is likely to be a dangerous move, and one that might ultimately end badly. Regardless, institutional traders measure performance in months, not years, and they cannot afford to miss a potential two- to six-month rally.
To present a clearer understanding of my thinking, let’s look at two factors: market internals and sentiment."
I tried to place the longer and shorter term expectations into context . . .
Negative Sentiment Could Boost Market
2/2/2005 1:55 PM EST