New Column up at Real Money (03/23/05)


My latest column, "Falling Oil Sets Trap," is up at at the free site; It is loosely based upon two prior posts from last week: 

Spring Forward, or Fall Back?

Oil Top Sets up Next (Last?) Market Leg Up

Here’s an excerpt:

"Having mulled over a variety of possible outcomes with oil and its impact on
equity markets, I cannot shake one troubling scenario that I call the "oil
trap." It keeps coming up as I consider various crude price moves. What is so
dastardly about the trap is that it sets up both bulls and bears for heartache.

Unfortunately, I consider it a very high-possibility scenario.

As someone who has been bullish on oil since December 2003 — and mentioned a
$57 target here in
late-September 2004 — my expectations have been met, even exceeded. I am now
comfortable stating my expectations of an intermediate-term oil top between $57
and $59; Tuesday afternoon, crude was recently down $1.46 cents at $56 per

I expect the stock market’s response to a pullback from these levels to be
positive, but short-lived."

As of now, the intermediate top call we made in Oil last week (at $57) is looking pretty decent . . .


Falling Oil Sets Trap
Barry Ritholtz 3/23/2005 12:02 PM EST

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