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If you are in front of a screen at 6:10 am tomorrow (Tuesday), I’ll be on Bloomberg TV (US) for a quick Fed/Oil/Markets discussion . . .
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UPDATE June 28, 2005 6:40am
A shrewd observer passes the following along:
Having gotten slapped around on Thursday when the tides turned suddenly, the Punditsyare now crying “Crude” all over the place; the S&P 500 has given back its narrow gain on the year and now stands year-to-date, -1.68%. Just like that.
Question: Crude printed $59.70 on April 4 (July basis; printed $60 August basis the same day). The Transports, having made the high for the year on March 8, were still a lofty 3717 when Crude made the high tick back in April.
So why is $60 Crude bad for Transports now? Why were we able to overlook these prices just a couple of months back? Is there that much more of a negative economic impact with Crude at $60 than say, Crude at $59.50 or $57.25? Absolutely not.
I think FDX earnings release last Thurs fomented the sell-off last week- as much as oil prices or protectionist rhetoric… maybe more
it’s because the efficient market hypothesis is wrong. information may or may not be disseminated instantly, but markets are emotional as well as rational. sometimes it takes time for emotions to grow to the point where they command our attentions and affect our actions. intellectual rationales for emotional behavior always wind up seeming weak and inadequate. trying to identify one specific trigger for a mass emotional reaction is an interesting exercise, but the reaction is the thing.
And in today’s world those emotions are fed by simple minded mass media market hype. “Rounding” out the list along with $60 oil are such things as $3.00/gallon gas or GOOG $300 or DOW 10,000 or $400 gold … and we can take that a bit further into the realm of the non-financial: the 1000th US soldier killed in Iraq was[is] certainly a more impassioned headline event than #1739, #1740, #1741, #1742 ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,#, #, # ,#,#,#,#,#,#,#,#,#,#,#,…
And in today’s world those emotions are fed by simple minded mass media market hype. “Rounding” out the list along with $60 oil are such things as $3.00/gallon gas or GOOG $300 or DOW 10,000 or $400 gold … and we can take that a bit further into the realm of the non-financial: the 1000th US soldier killed in Iraq was[is] certainly a more impassioned headline event than #1739, #1740, #1741, #1742 ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,# ,#, #, # ,#,#,#,#,#,#,#,#,#,#,#,…