Change in Dow Components

Mike Panzner on the Net change in the constituent members of the Dow from the January 14, 2000 record close through earlier today…

Dow Components

Eastman Kodak      -62.22% [No longer in Dow]
General Motors      -60.74%
Intel   Corp      -60.18%
Microsoft   Corp      -51.27%
Home   Depot Inc      -41.21%
Merck   & Co      -39.47%
Intl   Paper Co      -38.47% [No longer in Dow]
Du   Pont      -36.06%
Honeywell   Intl      -31.31%
IBM      -31.19%
Alcoa   Inc      -30.83%
General   Electric      -29.46%
Coca-Cola   Co      -26.62%
Wal-Mart   Stores      -23.24%
AT&T   Inc      -21.05%
Hewlett-Packard      -18.83%
Disney   (Walt) Co      -7.43%
McDonalds   Corp      -6.35%
JPMorgan   Chase      -4.43%
******************************
Dow   Jones Indus. Avg -0.12%
******************************
Procter   & Gamble      7.72%
American   Express      19.73%
Citigroup   Inc      24.22%
Johnson&Johnson      38.18%
3M   Co      50.67%
Exxon   Mobil Corp      59.09%
Boeing   Co      80.93%
United   Tech Corp      98.52%
Caterpillar   Inc      153.77%
Altria   Group Inc      220.83%
SBC Communication [Now part of AT&T]

>

What’s amazing is that 20 of the 30 Dow Components are off their
highs, and that so many of the them are WAY OFF their 2006 highs. Of
the 20 Dow components that are below their 2000 peaks, 14 of those 20
off by more than 25%.

That is the nature of a price weighted index . . .

>

UPDATE:  October 27, 2006 11:10am

Attention Slate readers:  Be sure to also see our comparisons between the Dow vs Money Market since the market peak. You may be surprised to learn that since January 2000, cash (yes, cash) has outperformed the Dow.

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What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. Bear Mountain Bull commented on Sep 27

    Unimpressive

    Note to CNBC: As youre trying to cheer the Dow on to a new record close, you should probably drop that banner that says:
    Only 10 of the Dow 30 higher since last record high.
    It doesnt look good.
    Update: At The Big Picture,…

  2. Paul Jones commented on Sep 27

    How would one begin to factor in inflation, or relative strength of the dollar into these numbers?

  3. Mike commented on Sep 27

    Per CNBC talking heads, denominated in euros, the dow is still something like 40% off its high… at least that is what I think I heard. Watching this channel all day everyday, it starts to all run together. But I at least think I’m right on that.

  4. Will commented on Sep 27

    Does this include dividends?

  5. RMX commented on Sep 27

    per “SBC Communication [Now part of AT&T] ”

    More accurately, the “old” AT&T is now part of SBC . . which then changed it’s name to AT&T to leverage the more well known brand.

  6. David Silb commented on Sep 27

    You know this list makes me think that maybe the DOW is a bad idea.

    What if all you want to do is show the positive side of the economy. I mean by adding and removing DOW components to project a biased “up” picture of the economy. Is it as simple as just remove the factor holding back the average.

    Is this really a good picture of the United States Economy or a better indictator of the world economy with a little US thrown in?

    I am not sure but as this market and this current period economy moves along I am starting to see a disconnect between the man on the street and the DOW.

    This may not be the topic at hand but this is as good a place to discuss this a any.

  7. Michael C. commented on Sep 27

    There was that $TICK 1250+.

    Now after that minor dip, all the shorts are nervous and all the longs are thinking they are untouchable.

    Great setup. Now the fun begins.

  8. Michael C. commented on Sep 27

    And how about that Cramer comment when he said oil has no where to go but down and he was about as certain of this as anything. That was at $60.80 and within a day of the bottom.

    Oils at $62.80 now.

  9. jjr commented on Sep 27

    Dow has lost half of its value compared to gold, since 2001. I don’t hear the cheerleaders discussing this. Also, why are the all-time highs in gold/oil/etc reported in nominal terms, but the Dow is not. Makes no sense.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU:$GOLD&p=M&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0

    If you’re not a subscriber, looks like stockcharts only goes back 3 years, but this chart is nothing new.

  10. Mike commented on Sep 27

    Will, I don’t know if dividends are included. It was one of those stats people spout off to support their argument.

    David, it is very easy to argue that the average joe isn’t experiencing wall street’s optimism. All you need to do is cite the negative mutual fund flows over the last few months. The low volume “stealth” rally doesn’t have much support from the public.

    Lastly, watching CNBC makes me think I am the only one of the planet who isn’t an uberbull.

  11. Ollie commented on Sep 27

    Rotten durable goods report? Buy oil!
    Slowing construction? Buy oil!
    Fed not yet out of the picture? Buy oil!
    And then buy gold!

  12. Paul Jones commented on Sep 27

    To RMX: Take the DOW for what it is worth: it is a blue chip index. If you don’t retire stocks from the index you will have an index that doesn’t reflect a changing economy at all.

  13. bill commented on Sep 27

    If you consider AT&T’s reverse split, it went down closer to 60-80%. Oh, how I know it. While watching the internet bubble, the telecom bubble went unnoticed by me.

  14. David Silb commented on Sep 27

    Mike good point on the “stealth” rally that is a good way to define it.

    And actually that is a good way of looking at this market. Institutional investors / hedge funds / big players are the ones with money in it. The rest are just sitting in their overleveraged ATM’s waiting for a weatherman to tell them which way the wind is blowing.

    Cramer predicts Hurricanes.

  15. David Silb commented on Sep 27

    Paul jones,

    You probably were addressing me. Names are listed under posts not above.

    And I agree but should we also pick some losers as well as winners. Retiring a stock is one thing but shouldn’t we put companies that reflect changes in the economy as a whole.

    Maybe the concept of the DOW is past its prime. Harking back to a time when yes an economy was defined by a key set of companies and if they were doing well then the economy was doing well.

    But maybe now we should focus on a truer picture of the economy, if you want to show the state of that economy. Maybe we need to add losers into the winners. Or just use the DOW as one big marketing tool for stockbrokers hawking securities.

    It is just a thought and not really thought completely through.

  16. permabull commented on Sep 27

    Seeing good companies languishing for some years whilst their earnings and dividends rise always makes my old heart beat a little faster.

    Let’s throw in PFE, VZ and AIG – and take out IP, EK – to reflect the current Dow 30.

    Are there not 5 good companies at reasonable value in there?

    Companies whose current and 5 year average ROE, ROIC ( ex financials), earnings and dividend growth is above 10%. And that are selling for reasonable value at the moment. And whose history suggests a good chance of nicely surviving the next recession.

    Of course there are.

    There’s some dreadful companies in there too – but they don’t have to be bought.

    The people who make these lists have to put in all the rubbish as well.

    They deserve our sympathy – but not our loyalty.

    Now, go and find those 5 good companies – I’m far too old to be doing all the hard work for you.

  17. John Mugarian Investor Alert commented on Sep 28

    Contributors for the Dow’s Recent Rise: Since January 14, 2000

    I just received this e-mail from Barry Rritholtz at The Big Picture (www.bigpicture.com) web log. Barry said; “We took apart the Dow yesterday — see this”: Click here to see the change in the Dow components: The Big Picture Thank…

  18. Kimmunications commented on Oct 1

    Dow components compared to all-time high

    I am on a plane, en route from Dallas to Atlanta. CNN was reporting the Dow was within just a few points and inching closer to its all-time high as I was getting on the plane. By now, it may

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