Two different schools of thought when it comes to the rest of the week’s market action:
Bill King at M. Ramsey King Securities notes that:
"Today – Usually on the day before expiration there is a soft morning and the usual late Thursday rally attempt. This rally attempt can be amplified ahead of future’s expiration because equity futures holders often replace their expiring futures contracts via purchasing stock on Friday’s open. BUT this ploy could be greatly mitigated by the CPI report and the plethora of impact economic data that is due on Friday before the open…
Expected economic data: Import Prices +0.3%; Advance Retail Sales -0.2%, ex-autos +0.3%; Initial Jobless Claims 315k, Continuing Claims 2.495m; Business Inventories +0.5%.
Last month we commented, and produced a chart, that showed for most of 2006 the months have had a similar profile : Strong at the end and start of the month and ahead of expiration; and down the other parts of the month. January, due to the strong start of the year seasonal, and May, because of the May 10 FOMC, are the only aberrant months this year. Ergo stocks should be making a short-term top (at the least) in the next few days."
Then there’s The Stock Trader’s Almanac view on the actual (quadruple) triple witch:
Septmber Triple Witch has seen the Dow Down 15 of the last 25, and the 10th trading day of September Nasdaq has been down 18 of the last 22 (10th day = 9/15 this year)
Me? I have no opinion . . .