It was a rare week: no new records or milestone: The Dow slipped below below 12,000, as it fell a little bit every day. Despite higher-than-expected wage growth, and rising oil prices, the Dow still didn’t give up a full 1%. The Dow ended the week off 104.22, while the S&P 500 declined
13.04 points. The best looking index was the
Nasdaq, which declined less than 20 points over the five sessions.
Just about all of the macro-economic news was bad — the lone exeption being the unemployment rate falling to 4.4% (a 5 year low). While NFP were soft, the revisions were decidely not. Given the ostensibly tight labor pool and rising wages, the Fed is unlikely to lower rates any time soon.
Oil, while still under $60 a barrel, popped over $59 Friday due to Nigerian unrest. Barron’s trader column noted warnings of kidnappings and bombings in oil-producing areas made energy traders a bit skittish.
We are in the home stretch for quarterly earnings, and while the economic data will be light this week, all eyes are on Tuesday’s Mid-term elections.
That’s what ahead; Here’s what’s currnetly worth reviewing: Weekend linkfest!
• Don Hays has been all over this: Global Cash Glut Fuels Investment Boom
• RealMoney is offering students and profs a free subscription through May 31, 2007.
The only requirement: You must have an email address that ends in ".edu." Email email@example.com to start your free subscription.
• The plunge in Canadian stocks may be a lesson for U.S. investors: Governments do impact equity markets; On a related note, see all of the Major Enacted Tax Legislation 1940 – 2006
• 8 Ways to Trade the Elections; Van Kampen funds looks at how elections have impacted market performance: For Investors, Elections are Only the Beginning
• Bloomberg magazine gives the nod to the The World’s Top Analysts
• Morgan Stanley makes a couple of big bets on Hedge Funds and on Trading Carbon Dioxide
• Merrill strategists say trim energy, financial stocks; add technology, media, in Ten investing ideas for the next 12 months; Jim Jubak also sez: Buy Tech Stocks
• 30 Years of Insurance Returns; Speaking of which: Without hurricane losses, Berkshire Hathaway Q3 profit soars; Also: Buffett’s Buys Target($269 million), J&J ($1.47 billion)
• An Effective Way to Track the Market
• Land Prices Bury Margins for Homebuilders
The Wall of worry continues to build:
• Morgan Stanley’s Great Debate on economic growth outlook
• We haven’t a clue what actual NFP data is . . . hence, the Retiring of the Over/Under Bet
• WSJ: Goldilocks Gets Eaten (if no WSJ, go here)
• Our Retail Preview & Update was very accurate; So much for the "Gasoline Effect"
• The Unemployment Rate tends to hit bottom just before Recessions
The Economist looks at the long term structural changes in the US Economy: Slow road ahead
• Bloomberg notes that Profits Rise 23% in U.S., Led by Banks, Insurers;
• Pretty mediocre: Wal-Mart’s October U.S. Same-Store Sales Rose About 0.5 Percent; The giant retailer is slashing prices on Electronics and beginning their holiday discounting early.
• What miracle? Productivity slows to a standstill
• An emailer asks: Why are you so obsessed with housing? The answer is found here: Can the economy survive the housing bust?
• I’m not even close to being Wall Street’s most Bearish economic pundit; that’s a battle between David Rosenberg and Nouriel Roubini
• An interesting discussion between two academic economists on an area of economics known as "political business" cycles: How Much Do Election Shakeups Affect the Nation’s Economy?
• The American Enterprise Institute looks at the U.S. economy, which
has slowed to a level below trend growth rate in 2H ’06, and asks is the process is self-correcting or self-reinforcing?
• Japan’s Household Spending Drops for Ninth Month
• Survey sez: Manufacturers’ optimism on economy wanes
• A Bloomberg video twofer:
Jim Rogers Says U.S. Economy Is Probably Already in Recession
JPMorgan’s Glassman Disagrees; Says Jobless Rate Doesn’t Reflect a Slowdown;
• Confessions of a Data Dependent: The speech by (8th inning) Fisher on relying on faulty data was an eye opener; Another must-read was the Journal’s Bad Data Helped
Fuel Rate Cuts, Housing Speculation (free)
• Hopes for Fed rate cuts die; The result: Treasuries Fall Most Since July 2005 as U.S. Jobless Rate Drops;
• Fed’s Lacker: Economy `Resilient’ to Higher Rates
• The National Association of Realtors decided they need to drop $40 million to tell you It’s a great time to buy or sell a home! The interesting about the advert: EVERY SINGLE STATEMENT IN IN IS MATERIALLY FALSE OR MISLEADING
• The Good News: Single-Family Home Prices have had a great run (inflation adjusted); The Bad News: They are are only starting to roll over
• Hard to argue with this headline: The New Word in Home Sales: ‘Canceled’
• As Homeowners Face Strains, Market Bets on Loan Defaults; also RealtyTrac: Nat’l Foreclosures Up 17 Percent in 3Q
• The NAR’s Chief Economist was forced to change the cover of his book; Scroll down to item #4 to see these future changes to the book’s cover (hysterical!)
• Homeowners an optimistic bunch: Despite news of the housing market slipping, just 6% of homeowners surveyed said they believe their own home’s value will decline over the next 12 months.
• Whah? Floyd Norris says changes in Consumer Confidence point to a GOP loss in 2008
• Pollock painting may be priciest ever
• The WSJ’s favorite "cult" wine: Screaming Eagle at $1595 per bottle; (Perhaps it goes well with last week’s $454 cigar)
• Mark Hulbert notes the Wall of worry has become slope of hope
• Maslow’s Theory of Human Motivation
• Some interesting sentiment data via Lew Rockwell
• CNBC’s Kudlow & Company just recorded their biggest year-to-year growth (134%) in the key 25-54 demographic
With 4 days to go til the mid-term elections, there lots of political
ground to cover (then we can put this category away for a while):
• Election Update, final part Tradesports some changes. Freefall: GOP has a less than 21% chance of retaining control of the House; Odds for retention of Senate were down nearly 4 points: Senate at 70% even.
• The Economy?
-Bush Gains Ground on Economy, But Iraq Still Tops Voters’ Agenda
-Bush, Republicans Find Strong Economy Doesn’t Win Middle Class
• Bushenfreude—the phenomenon
whereby high-income beneficiaries of the Bush tax cuts use their windfalls to
fund Democratic candidates—is still raging
• Futures Sites React to Kerry foot-in-mouth Speech; See the troops’ response here.
• Republican Rebels of ’94 Now Face Their Own Revolt
• Candidates Are Ignoring $1.35 Trillion Alt. Minimum Tax ‘Time Bomb’
• Bechtel wraps up Iraq projects; their role in reconstruction is "over."
• File this under WTF: US stops audit of Iraq rebuilding;
• What to do with Tehran: The Case for Engagement in Iran
• Pentagon gears up for new media war
• Wild commercial from The World Wildlife Foundation
• Carter Says North Korea was in Nuclear Compliance until "Axis of Evil" SOTU comments
Technology & Science
• Powers of Ten: here’s what adding a zero does
• Only ’50 years left’ for sea fish
• Jeff Matthews asks "Guess what company just reported a decline in internet revenues last quarter?" Give up? highlight the following word Microsoft !;
• Defective-by-Design looks at all the gadgets and toys at Amazon that have restrictive DRM . . .
• God gets away with murder, not to mention a cushy, tax-free existence. So says Richard Dawkins in a Bloomberg discussion
• What are Web’s societal, scientific consequences? The academics weigh in
Music Books Movies TV Fun!
• One of my quant buddies recommends Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals
• I’ve been going a bit Jazz crazy lately: We Three (Roy Haynes With Phineas Newborn and Paul Chambers), The Roy Haynes Trio, Sarah Vaughan’s Swingin’ Easy, and Ella at Juan-Les-Pins;
• Waiting to arrive: Donavon Frankenreiter’s Move by Yourself; I am also totally jazzed over the remastering of The Pretenders, arguably the greatest debut album ever.
• Diebold gets into a pissing match with HBO and demands the cancellation of a documentary on their voting machines; Film saying they can be manipulated ‘inaccurate’
• Michael Lewis on Going beyond ‘Moneyball’
• Nothing like having the WSJ announce you are a horndog
• Forget clay pigeons, we want to shoot up bigger things!
• I like to drive fast, but I keep excessive speeds confined to the track. Not this guy (start at the 3 minute mark) Note the speedo on the Bike is in kmh, not miles, so 297km/h is roughly equivalent to 185 mph.
• Beware blind Lip Gloss tests
• A Guy witnesses an accident . . . too funny!
That’s all from my corner of the North Shore of Long Island, where I am off to a few days of hot laps in Sebring Florida.
The long term trend growth rate of the US economy has been 3.5%.
But AEI starts out by claiming it is 3%.
Talk about changing the rules in the middle of the game.
Maybe someone should point out to them that we had much stronger growth in the 1990s without igniting inflation.
But we would not want to confuse them with the facts.
does anyone read Between the Hedges blog at hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com? If you post a comment that contradicts his stance on the market, he bans you from making comments on his site…how ridiculous is that?? I made some points about the slowing economy, rising inflation, and he banned me from making comments. WITHOUT an explanation. I wasn’t rude nor did I use inlfammatory comments.
rip up the track!!!! i signed up for the free real money!!!!
tell cramer oldskooldave says “what’s good?”
Silicon Valley’s reported median prices may be holding up. However, we increasingly see evidence of manipulation of the data.
We see it in our own neighborhood:
and also in reported county-wide stats:
http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com for all the latest numbers and news.
Let us know how the shoe stores rate down there… are they pumps or flats compared with NYC.
“• One of my quant buddies recommends Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals”
Interesting, Barry. From the publisher’s description, it looks like a worthwhile read.
I’ve done a little low-brow quant trading with some success (just buying straddles with low current implied volatility vs. historic) and currently have a set of straddles that are more or less delta-neutral. But it seems to me that to do more sophisticated quant things like trade the skew, you probably have to be willing to take on a lot of leveraged risk to make any serious money. Ignoring suitability, is this even practical for a small-ish “investor?”
Regrettably, I do not have LTCM-sized leverage/credits at my disposal, nor am I inclined to bet the farm on theoretical statistics. Quant stuff sounds reasonable enough, but is it so scale-driven that little guys can’t really take advantage of it without going all-in?
Before the Fundamentalists show up, I would add that there is nothing wrong with traditional T/A when used for its intended purpose and not as a crystal ball. I would rather guess at whether my chart reading was correct than whether some gasbag CEO is lying about revenue, thank you very much.
After lurking for a few months(hooked on BP)I read in the DMN that Ford has 88 day supply of Trucks and the new models are coming out, online story doesnt state that.
Sooo,,, 26% Auto sales growth in 3Qt GDP? Huh?
Leading shares are set for a cautious start to the week as Wall Street slipped below the key 12,000 level on Friday and as investors stay cautious ahead of Thursday’s rate decision, dealers said.
The dollar is one input to its forward-looking forecast for U.S. inflation and real growth.