Looks like we are going to get fluctuated again . . .


Print Friendly, PDF & Email

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. Jdamon commented on Mar 1

    OK Barry, a full bore correction has arrived (as you have predicted). Now, how far down does it go (10%) and as a long-term INVESTOR (not trader), when do I put my 20% that isn’t long the market to work?

    Where are the support levels on each of the three indicies?


  2. Mr. Beach commented on Mar 1

    IMHO, fear has not set in just yet. Indian traders saw this pattern last year in the Bombay Sensex index:

    May 10th 2006 (high): 12,624
    June 13th 2006 (low): 9,387

    After the summer lows, the markets rose around the world. Bombay Sensex high::

    Feb 8, 2007 (high): 14,687

    The big question is do we take out last summer’s lows in markets around the world. That would be an event. This is so far a pertubation.

  3. Jim Cramer commented on Mar 1

    Nothing to worry about — its just another Dow Jones glitch

  4. Jdamon commented on Mar 1

    Dude, if you don’t think there is some fear, try losing $30g in one day. That will throw some fear into you quick.

    That being said, looks like buyers are stepping up to the plate after the initial sell-off. Hopefully they can keep the market in some sort of shape.

    Definite jitters amongst the investing crowd today. When you lose 3 months of gains overnight, I would say that got some peoples attention.

  5. Tony Winston commented on Mar 1

    Barry, By any wild chance have you read my blog? I used the exact same headline (Uh-Oh) on Tuesday. I’d be amazed if you’ve seen it.

  6. asian commented on Mar 1

    I had a bunch of Canadian dollars I needed to exchange so I went to the currency exchange window at the local bank.

    Short line… just one guy in front of me…

    He was an Asian guy who was trying to exchange yen for dollars and he was a little agitated.

    He asked the teller, “why it change? yesterday I get two hunat dolla fo yen – today I get hunat eighty? Why it change?”

    The teller says, “fluctuations”.

    The Asian guy says, “fluc you white guys too!”

  7. scorpio commented on Mar 1

    i love it when the CNBC talking heads and guests repeat their mantra “nothing in the economy has changed”, as if markets have much if any day to day correlation to economies. markets are fueled by liquidity, or the perception thereof, and can take on a life of their own, independent of any “objective” correlations. but in fact the economy is in objectively worse shape today than it was last September, before this baby rocketed up 14%. so why dont we take out just that much, then poke our little heads up and see how the world looks.

  8. John commented on Mar 1

    Only one way to settle this……Chinese Downhill.

  9. Suresh commented on Mar 1

    NYSE imposes trading curbs as stocks fall
    The New York Stock Exchange said on Thursday it instituted downside trading curbs as U.S. stocks fell sharply in early trading. …
    The trading curbs require that all program buying of S&P 500 stocks must be on an up-tick.

    What are the ramifications of this? Institutional investors would be unable to exit out of positions during an equity index free-fall?

  10. Fred commented on Mar 1

    Mr Beach…to say that there is/was no fear is laughable. Take a peek at the VIX or VXO (aka: the FEAR index). Take a peek at the put call ratios…or the bets being made in the inverse ETFs. It is not only fear but “agressive confidence” on the part of the bears. That has not ended well for those making that bet in the past.

  11. Bob A commented on Mar 1

    …because all those nice folks who were telling you to be calm and hold on yesterday are now pulling the rug out from under you …

  12. Eddie commented on Mar 1

    Why are the curbs in place with such a relatively small move? I thought it tool like a 500 point move to create the curbs..

    Also, it’d be interesting to know how these curbs work anyway.

  13. Saviano commented on Mar 1

    TIA asks the right qustion – correction of 10% is ever possible, as well a rally of 10%. An investor does not care about it. Even 15% in the major indexes is not very scary; just sleep it over…

    For ones who have bouth early (and were not irritated by worries all the run up and have hold the stocks) current downmove is nothing.

  14. Mr. Beach commented on Mar 1

    With all due respect, those suggesting there is real Fear in the markets must be young-uns.

    This is nothing. Fear starts to build when 10% of your portfolio is wiped out within minutes.

    Fear of additional losses starts panic selling. And then the margin calls begin.

    Or let me try a sailing analogy. Swells that knock your boat up and down are commonplace. Fear begins to develop when you find yourself in swells so deep that the horizon disappears. It has happened to me and it sucks.

    I suppose it is the sign of the times that a few percentage points down and everyone is talking doom and gloom. This is nothing.

  15. Fred commented on Mar 1

    The pre-market futures and opening round was a capitulative puke job. What other than fear would create that huge towel throwing?

    I respect your opinion, but my 27 years in front of this turret has me disagreeing with you. It can, of course drop more. But the complacency has reversed to fear on any metric that I’m aware of (that is measurable). If you can provide evidence to the contrary, I’m eager to see it.


  16. Jdamon commented on Mar 1

    What I’m saying is that if you don’t think there was fear when the Dow was down 500+ points, you are crazy.

    Also, the fact that so many still have fresh in their minds the absolute wipe-out they got in 2000 – 2002 when the Naz lost 80+% of its value, exacerbates that fear. I still know people who refuse to invest in the market because they lost half of what they owned when the tech bubble burst.

    The question is do we have a bubble in stocks right now? I don’t see it, but some (like Barry?) seem to.

  17. Jdamon commented on Mar 1

    Also, when people talk about a 16% rise in stocks since July ’06, they need to not leave out the fact that from May to June we had darn near a 10% correction. Net, net, the market isn’t really “flying high” over the last 4 years of this “bull” market.

    What is the avg. annual gain for the S&P since 2003? I bet it is less than it’s historical avg. Bull market my a$$.

  18. Lawyer commented on Mar 1

    Why Kudlow’s analysis is relevant is beyond me. His claim that Bush’s lower tax rates are increasing tax revenues and decreasing the deficit are so transparently ridiculous, I’m surprised his degrees haven’t been revoked. deLong will likely cite him again in the contest for the world’s stupidest person.

  19. Michael C. commented on Mar 1



    For a while there, I thought I was going to have to convert all my trading accounts into mutual fund accounts and become a real estate broker to pass the time.

  20. Josh commented on Mar 1

    JDamon, it doesn’t take a bubble for stocks to sell off. Even if the bullish “goldilocks” soft landing scenario plays out, market growth from here doesn’t look good.

  21. Ernst commented on Mar 1

    One day might arrive when the US Government, in its paternalistic, big government, big brother style might enforce a law banning US citizens to invest in the stock market no more than an x% of their income. This is already happening. Fortunately, to the US Government I am a non-resident foreign alien (some kind of sci-fi character). This means I invest in hedge funds and other alternative investments without having to be an “accredited investor”. US citizens are not allowed to invest their own money where they please unless they have a couple of million dollars or so. In order to be consequent with the argument of protecting US citizens from “risky” investments, I believe the US Government should enact and enforce another law: To buy a house you have to be an “accredited investor”.

  22. Poncho commented on Mar 1

    The fear derives from knowing what is coming, and is this market bump the pre cursor to the big crash

    If you’re a fan of LewRockWell.com, and the gold standard crowd (like me), I would say there is a lot to fear.

    Fiat Currency anyone??

    That’s why I opened up an EverBank (Foreign Currency)account.

  23. Cherry commented on Mar 1

    “gold standard”

    Ah, yes, fiat with a smile.

  24. LAWMAN commented on Mar 1

    Gosh…the bears are salivating, aren’t they. Is this what happens when the market doesn’t fart for a couple of years?

  25. Poncho commented on Mar 1

    “To Cherry”

    Not to mention the crushing government and consumer debt (with no end in sight), the war, the aging baby boomers, and that darn housing bubble.

  26. CDizzle commented on Mar 1

    Fear and shock are two different emotions. Shock is “WOW!”. Fear is “umm…yes…what are today’s CD rates?”

    Capitulation is signing the signature card on said CD.

    Capitulation? Not…even…close…

    Realizing that the whackage (Barry’s term and I love it!) directly correlates to a reset of the retirement clock = substantive fear.

    BTW, this book that Barry recommended by Joe Ellis is topical IMHO. Basically breaks down to the consumer (consumer spending, anywho) driving the stock market. Makes a comment about how it’s all about real wage growth because consumers would NEVER fuel the majority of their discretionary spending from borrowing…

    Guess he didn’t check out the ol’ “what would GDP growth be w/o MEW chart?” prior to publication.

  27. Bob A commented on Mar 1

    I don’t think the question is whether or not we’re in a bubble.

    The question is, is there any reason why we should no longer expect normal corrections? And is a one day 3% drop a normal correction?

  28. Jdamon commented on Mar 1

    So, in this raging bull market we have been in, the SPX is up 10.65% since the first trading day January ’06. So, after 14 months I made about 4-4.5% more than I could have made in a 14 month CD. This after some of the most impressive earnings growth in the last 60 years.

    Just imagine how bad the market will get when earnings growth slows or turns negative. Heck, we might relive the ’29 crash all over again.

  29. Jdamon commented on Mar 1

    Can’t put my money in commodities, housing, bonds or stocks. What is a poor schmuck to do to invest for the long term? Head down to Zales and buy a bunch of gold bracelets?

  30. Winston Munn commented on Mar 1

    It is me or has the Fed’s meddling caused an alteration in the risk/reward ratio of shorting? Here is a quote from The Wall Street Examiner: “There was a noticeable sigh of relief in the markets yesterday as Tuesday’s freefall didn’t repeat itself. The one item helping out the markets that didn’t make it into the mainstream media was the fact that the Fed stepped up to the plate with an extra $9.25 billion in instant cash via overnight and two day repos. That action places yesterday in the top 20 add days in the last 500 trading days (top 4%). Most other times we have seen such huge adds were on days with little or no repo expirations.”

    If the downside risk of a long postion is being manipulated by the Fed pumping in liquidity, then the potential gains of the short seller are being artificially restrained, and thus even more risk is added to the short position. I find it hard to accept that out of the blue there was a $9.25 billion demand increase to buy up those bargains after a measley 3% down day. But if the Fed was trying to prevent further carnage, that number makes sense.

    And all this time I thought Republicans supported free markets – but it looks like what they actually support is the liquidity bubble.

  31. Winston Munn commented on Mar 1

    The question is do we have a bubble in stocks right now? I don’t see it, but some (like Barry?) seem to.

    I certainly cannot speak with the authority or intelligence of our host, but myself I wonder about earnings. We hear how the P/E ratios are not historically overvalued, but it seems we forget that half of that ratio is earnings. If the markets are trading in the 16-18 P/E range now, what happens in the third and fourth quarters of this year if earnings are halved – or worse? Perhaps this is the potential bubble some see?

  32. lpaa commented on Mar 1

    Out of curiosity, does anyone know where I can obtain more information about how the consumer confidence survey is conducted — the list of questions asked, and detailed info about survey non-response? I go to the conference board web site (photos of engaged, nattily dressed executives gives them away as cheerleaders), and learn that they outsource the Consumer Confidence survey to an organization called TNS.

  33. Bill commented on Mar 2

    A wicked down NYSE open after ugly Asian and/or Euro bourse suggests heavy foreign selling.

Posted Under