Media Appearance: Kudlow & Company (7/10/07)


Its the regular appearance on Kudlow tonite: And, we’ve gotten the old band together — Marketwatch’s Herb Greenberg, and Dynamic Fund’s Noah Blackstein — everybody but Ringo (John Rutledge!)

We will obviously be covering today’s market activity — Dow off 1.09%, Nazz down 1.16%, but the SPX got really schmiessed, down 1.42%.

Other factors: Crude Oil (~$73), the Housing Spillover and the Consumer Slowdown — including the big jump in Revolving Credit (+9.8% in May) — and (of course!) Earnings.

I was particularly mindful of the Financials getting shellacked:

Goldman Sachs . . . GS . . . .  -$5.90     -2.64%
Morgan Stanley
. . . MS . . . . -$2.20    -3.03%
Merryll Lynch
. . . MER . . . . -$3.02     -3.54%
Lehman Brothers
. . LEH . . . -$2.20    -3.03%
Bear Stearns
. . . BSC  . . . . -$5.93     -4.12%
. . . AXP . . . . . . . . -$2.14    -3.43%
. . . C  . . . . . . . . -$0.60    -1.163%
JP Morgan Chase
. . JPM . . .-$1.28    -2.62%
Bank of America
. . . BAC . . -$0.45    -0.92%

Should be interesting . . .


UPDATE: July 10, 2007 9:08pm

Well, that was fun —

And while I did like that pink tie, as you can see from our earlier mention of it, I was referring to the yellow one!

For sure, Larry knew not to let me answer the Jobs question — that was a hanging curveball, and this is All-Star week – it was a home run waiting to be crushed!

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Discussions found on the web:
  1. Greg0658 commented on Jul 10

    You in the new set with the jail cell window on the half round table or the old super cool studio?

  2. Matt M. commented on Jul 10

    You can get some exposure in SKF. What’s nice is the ability to be long the inverse ETF’s in retirement accounts, which was tough to accomplish pre-ETF.

  3. GerryL commented on Jul 10

    Does Kudlow ever let you answer a question when he doesnt like your answer?

  4. scorpio commented on Jul 10

    when profits were going up 25% in 2004 you could understand the market going up likewise. when profits are up 5% in 2007 should the market be up a similar rate?

  5. Eclectic commented on Jul 10

    You can say what you want to, but S&P was the key mover and shaker today.

    Man, that Rex Nutting is a ha-a-Rd mAn!:

    Reminds me of “The Searchers”

    If you remember in the movie, “The Searchers,” John Wayne’s character becomes the de-facto leader of a posse that’s chasing an indian war party, de-facto in the sense that Ward Bond’s character, the local politico heading up the posse, apparently must’ve fought the Civil War from the opposite side as Wayne, and that tension disturbed their otherwise long friendship.

    The indians lured members of the posse away from their homes under the pretense of only stealing and killing their livestock.

    The real objective was to raid their homes while they were gone to kill everyone in sight and to destroy the settlement.

    Of course the settlement’s posse, having the sense of invincibility often evidenced in emotional over-reactions to circumstances or events, decided to chase off willy nilly after the indians.

    After they’d worn out their horses and managed to kill one or two indians, they finally discovered they’d been tricked.

    As an aside: Wayne’s character “Ethan” shot out the dead indian’s eyes to keep it wandering the earth and forever unable to enter the spirit world. The only one to understand this gesture was old Mose, the settlement’s half-idiot who showed in that moment a greater understanding of the indians than did the members of the posse who’d exposed their families to this risk. This is also sometimes the characteristic of overly ambitious people. It shows up routinely in pro-forma EBITDA accountancy.

    Anyway, back to my story:

    The trick they’d fallen for was evidenced in the smoke rising in the far distance as they saw the results of their farms burning, and I’m sure visualized in that instant the horror of what was happening under the smoke.

    So, they jump to their saddles and take off again, willy nilly nonetheless, but this time with a purpose burning brighter than before. That’s what most of us would’ve done, right?

    Only, Ethan didn’t. He’d been fooled too, just like the rest, but in that instant he knew it was worthless to take off hell-bent-for-leather back to the settlement. Why?

    Because he’d used up his horse and he knew everyone else had used up theirs as well. The horse was totally exhaused… it needed feed and rest, and he knew all he’d do was kill it in a mad attempt to transit the approximate 50 miles to the settlement (You can drive for miles and miles and miles in many places in the west and still see the communities and cities lined up behind you).

    It was just as hard for Ethan to stop then for the sake of the horse because he could all too well imagine the horror in the distance, and if you think I wasn’t paying attention to the movie, then, yes, I did recognize that he loved his brother’s wife, likely not ever consumated, clearly reciprocated by the brother’s wife, and likely not ever expected by the brother himself… but it was there for anybody with eyes, a heart and a brain to see.

    If you haven’t seen the movie, or never recognized that in it, just watch it again. If there’s any mistake when Ward Bond’s character (the “constable”) lights his pipe and takes one glance at Ethan watching his brother’s wife, then you come back and tell me what I missed.

    Anyway, much as Ethan loved her, your horse is your life in the desert, and he knew it was too late to do anything about it. All that was left was to change tactics and deal with the new situation in a new way.

    Rex, you’d better be careful or you’ll shoot out some eyes… and they won’t be able to get into the spirit world.

  6. Fred commented on Jul 10

    The market may be setting up the bears (again). The Commitment of Traders report today should give the bears angina. Commercials are at a record long position. At the same time small speculators have near record low equity exposure. Guess which group has a better track record?

  7. the cds trader commented on Jul 10

    hardly surprising the financials are getting smoked, the credit markets have been PUKING the last few days. high-yield risk, ABS risk, sellers of bonds and buyers of protection everywhere. amazing how quickly it has moved from pretty much record low credit spreads in the corporate market to where it is now in just one month (CDX Crossover index out from 142 to 220 in a month or so). am amazed that equities have held up, think it’s just a matter of time before the real down move begins. very few equities seem to hold any value, and even if stocks were 20% lower most would still look pretty rich.

  8. fred commented on Jul 10

    Fred – Commitment of Traders report? you mean for commodities?

  9. Chief Tomahawk commented on Jul 10

    Hey BR, if you do Larry’s show for free, he ought to at least fly you to his better remote locales!

  10. Thomas commented on Jul 10


    It is my theory that Kudlow didn’t dare let you and Herb get going. He was more than happy to burn the time available. On the bright side, nobody goes on Kudlow for more than entertainment value anyway. You guys oughtta go on something like Charlie Rose or Bill Moyers. Then you could lay out some hard facts without interruption.

    Best regards from academia

    Ithaca, NY

  11. Winston Munn commented on Jul 10

    Quote: “At the same time small speculators have near record low equity exposure.”

    They are also near record levels of debt, record levels of bankruptcies, and record levels of home foreclosures.

    I guess you still can’t charge equities on the Visa card.

  12. MAS (San Diego) commented on Jul 11

    Once again Larry told the viewers to read Barry’s blog and once again the URL was absent from the screen. I’d complain.

  13. Fred commented on Jul 11

    Fred…I was referring to equity futures. The professionals are record long while the small specs are way underinvested/short.

    As for commodities the professionals are SHORT oil. Intersting, no?

    I also see that NYSE Short sales (Odd Lot) are approaching the March Feb levels. Sentiment is fugly….as many on this blog clearly show (a majority view).


  14. Smokefoot commented on Jul 12

    The Investors Intelligence Survey shows a lot more Bulls than Bears. The put/call ratio is also low, indicating relatively low levels of bearishness. Bearish sentiment may be a local phenomena – I don’t see evidence that it has hit the stock market in general.

  15. Fred commented on Jul 12

    Sentiment surveys are not worth much, imho…watch what they do, not say. The NYSE Odd Lot Short numbers show massive bets placed against the market. The Put Call has been high…not low. Stop losses (read: short covering) has just begun. The pain will be intense….and quick.

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