Consensus for Q3 GDP is 3.2%; the consensus range was from 2.5% to 4.0%.
I am on the low end of the range, but given how an under-reported inflation number enhances GDP, a higher data point would not surprise me.
NT’s Asha Bangalore notes:
"Durable goods orders fell 1.7% in September, following a 5.3% drop in the prior month. The 38.7% drop in orders of durable defense items was the major cause for the drop in durable goods orders. Excluding defense, bookings of durable goods increased only 0.7%. Orders of non-defense capital goods rose 4.4% in September after a 12.2% decline.
The more troubling issue is the fact that both orders (-8.4%) and
shipments (-1.1%) of durable goods are weak on a year-to-year basis."
A few of Asha’s more interesting charts as we await GDP at 8:30 this morning:
Orders and shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, the less volatile
component of durable goods, also send a similar message:
Wilting Durable Goods Orders – Precursor of More to Come?
Northern Trust, Global Economic Research October 25, 2007