An informative pair of charts, via Portales Partners:
Remind me again which idiots said that Housing won’t matter to the U.S. Economy . . . ?
New Home Sales and Inventory
October 26, 2007 5:45am by Barry Ritholtz
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Barry, neat how the chart shows the volitility. Any thoughts on where the monthly supply chart peaks? This time around it is on a much grander scale!
Thanks for all your work.
BR,
The idiots that you refer too, for some reason never mention the ‘ripple’ effect that the housing maket will have. We had a perfect storm in real estate, that I cant imagine will happen again. Even if rates drop to 1% (FFR), the loan programs that helped fuel that last 3 year push up dont exist any longer. So now that the first time home buyer basically doesnt exist(certain parts of the country), how can everyone else move up the ladder? Homes in California (where I used to live), just can not be purchased using the old method of qualifing, full doc, standard D.T.I.’s, 10-20% down, etc. I just dont see a quick way out of this, 2010 minimum if not longer for a bottom, then flat for awhile. Prices need to drop at least 20% to become afordable for the average ‘guy’. Oh well, time will tell..
Begs a question-
With housing falling, and local, state and federal pension plans predicting shortfalls, if private pensions (401ks, etc.) take a nose dive, where will that leave us?
I know, I’m missing a new paradigm shift in job and real wage growth:(
Unlike Greenspan, I’m not concerned with sentiment as much as I am about the *ability* to spend/consume.
If the consumer has no “cash” and can’t borrow (because of credit quality or underlying asset deflation -of borrower or lender), where will that leave us?
Keynesians would recommend government step in. What if the world won’t buy our debt?
I suspect the Mint would be ordering more paper or we’ll soon see campaigns for seniors to start pulling out their private pensions sooner to generate some tax and free cash flow, or both. The money’s got to come from somewhere.
Wait, that’s it! Cash out your 401k early and you’ll get part of your tax liability transferred to government bonds.
Each month the Census figures are revied downwards. More likely the 770 will end up somewhere around the 700-720 region
These are the NHS adjustments from 01/2006
01-06 -60
02-06 -42
03-06 -87
04-06 -101
05-06 -147
06-06 -58
07-06 -103
08-06 -41
09-06 -71
10-06 -52
11-06 -60
12-06 -101
01-07 -47
02-07 -8
03-07 -28
04-07 -74
05-07 -54
06-07 -37
07-07 -72
08-07 -60
09-07 -??
That would be your BFFE Larry Kudlow and Bail’em Out Ben.
Can I nominate Cramer and Angelo Mozilo as the new David Lereah siamese twins?
I think I’ve lost my mind. The following ran on Bloomberg:
“U.S. Homeownership Falls in Longest Slide Since 1981 (Update3)
By Bob Willis
Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) — Homeownership in the U.S. dropped for a fourth consecutive quarter, the longest decline since at least 1981, SUGGESTING MORE AMERICANS WILL MISS THEIR BEST CHANCE OF BUILDING WEALTH.”
That’s right folks. If you don’t buy a house right f***ing now, you’ll be poorer. Nevermind that you’d be buying a depreciating asset with borrowed money, or that it might be half as cheap to rent as it is to own where you live.
And this is Bloomberg, not CNBSleaze. What’s more, Bloomberg radio broadcast this drivel, repeating it word for word without any further explanation.
WTF?????
TKL,
Here is another doozie from that same Bloomberg report:
Now, declining ownership rates mean fewer Americans will be able to tap housing equity to fund education, vacations and other spending.
Huh???