Tonite is my debut on Fast Money — a fast "Chartology" segment, from 5:30pm to 5:40pm or so, on CNBC. The show is on at 5pm and again at 8 pm.
We will be discussing the SPX, State Street bank (STT) and Stanley (SXE)
See discussion after the jump . . .
Should be fun!
UPDATE: December 4, 2007 7:36am
The Chartology segment is posted at CNBC
Not how much macro/fundie info I slipped in.
The S&P500 SPX
– Long term trend line remains in
place. That means (at least short term) we give the market the bullish
benefit of the doubt. 1500 remains key resistance, and how the market
behaves between 1400-1500 will be telling, especially in terms of
breadth and volume. In our managed accounts, we remain mostly long,
– Why wary? These 3 warning signs:
1) The SPX year over year quarterly earnings just went negative in Q3 2007 – this was the 1st time we saw that in 5 years.
2) Markets negative after 75 bps Fed Rate/Discount cuts – historically, this has not been a positive sign;
3) Dow Theory Sell signal is also a warning.
Numerous big (200-300+) up & down days over the past 90 days —
msotly on the distribution side. . This tend to suggest a change in
Sexiest name in the group (pun intended), We like stocks that are strong getting stronger and love 52 week highs
-Stanley has doubled since the summer, while the rest of the market was in turmoil.
-The company is still small, just ~$800M market
-Your ideal entries are between $30-36
State Street Bank.
the Financials have been getting creamed this year, State Street held
its own, bucking the trend in the financial sector.
-The stock is up ~16% YTD, raising its market cap to near $31 billion. Over the same period, the XLF Financials are DOWN 16%
– That’s terrific relative strength.
– Bullish consolidation above $73 support, and it recently broke out of a one month trading range to a new 52-week high.
– The entry is above this consolidation at $78 to $82, with a relatively tight stop below that line