NYSE % of stocks > than 200 Day Moving Average

NYSE % of stocks > than 200 Day Moving Average

chart courtesy of Fusion IQ


As seen on the chart above the percentage of NYSE stocks > than their 200 day moving average has slipped (not incl. today) to almost 20%. This reading is similar to readings at other past significant lows such as the 1998 low and the 2002 low.

That said we don’t think we have seen the absolute low in the markets yet given the recent trend line break in the S&P 500. However, given these indicator readings we are starting to see the signs of a capitulation building — one more shot down may be necessary to set a better, more solid low.

NOTE:  When the % of NYSE stocks over their 200 day moving average drops to ~20%, it gives a reliable buy signal . . .


UPDATE: January 17, 2008 4:00

This is a 10 year, weekly chart. I thought that was self explanatory, above. Some of you seem, tot hink this is a bottom call right now. It is not precise to the day. When you look at the 1998 and 2002 lows, these are processes that develop over weeks and months.  I thought that was clear from the graph, but apparently a few of you misunderstood it. I regret any ambiguity.

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  1. Marcus Aurelius commented on Jan 17

    One more shot down…

    …watch that last step, it’s a doozy.

  2. Steve Barry commented on Jan 17

    This chart does not reliably call any significant top or bottom. It generally shows 2003 (highest reading on chart) to be a terrible time to buy stocks, when in fact it was a great time. The time period of the chart also coincides with the biggest stock and real estate bubbles of all time. This indicates potential oversold condition, but in a bear market, market can remain oversold for a long time.

  3. Rod Roth commented on Jan 17

    Do you have a chart on the number of stocks below their 200 day moving average that covers periods in which the financial excesses leading up to the low were comparable to the present era? For example 1974, or 1942, or 1932…

  4. GRG commented on Jan 17

    Economic stimulus package on the way, baby! Of course it’s full of the same exact stuff that got us here in the first place.

  5. Fred commented on Jan 17

    ISEE put call hit the low 20’s today…the prior lows had been ~ 50. It is considered bullish below 100.

  6. scorpio commented on Jan 17

    Louise Yamada saying sell any rallies, big leg down coming. anyone know her exact call? heard refernce on Bloomberg this morn

  7. cinefoz commented on Jan 17

    Good chart. We’ll see how today ends. The capitulation is close. Nobody acts as if the dip is only a blip anymore. Most appear to think that a rising market is long off or, as you, are talking bottom.

    Money has to go somewhere and stability invites risk. No more NEW bad news invites stability.

    If I called a bottom too early, shame on me. I know it is close and I still have a lot of cash ready to go for another buy. Plus, the bottom is near, if not here. Thus, I still will make an excellent return by, if not well before, end of year. Especially when the dogs I bought turn with an improving economy. All are well below normal averages and the US Economy is only temporarily slow, not going out of business

  8. Auto Mechanic Guy commented on Jan 17

    cinefoz says:

    Plus, the bottom is near, if not here.

    THE bottom, or just A bottom. This market is not priced for a recession yet according to people a lot smarter than me.

  9. Mike M commented on Jan 17

    Interestingly, many stocks have broken down but the major averages have been OK (well, relatively speaking). I wonder what happens when those few stocks holding up the averages really start to falter.

  10. Auto Mechanic Guy commented on Jan 17

    I’m not clear Barry, do you agree with Roth of Miller Tabak, or do you think he is overstating it? You make it sound like we’re just about there…he makes it sound like we’re going to take a big dive…

    Miller Tabak’s Roth says the S&P 500 may fall as much as 15 percent in the next three to six months. The percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is still too high to signal a market bottom, he said.

    About 21 percent of the shares on the New York Stock Exchange were trading above their 200-day moving average as of Jan. 15, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with 16 percent when the S&P 500 fell to its bear market bottom on Oct. 9, 2002.

    “There’s been tremendous naivete and complacency about the market and it’s gradually dissipating,” said Roth, 43, chief technical market analyst at Miller Tabak in New York. “More than likely we’ll have a number of weeks of recovery at some point and then another leg down.”

  11. scorpio commented on Jan 17

    today’s loss is just the loons who thot that Ben would save them today, or tomorrow, or the next Fed mtg or the interim cut AD NAUSEUM. the reason he hasnt cut today or yday or tomorrow is he knows he’s got few arrows and this economy is coming unstuck NO MATTER WHAT HE DOES.

  12. Donny commented on Jan 17

    No one really knows how bad this is going to become, however, I think the permabulls are just now starting to understand that the current market prices are unsustainable. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a serious run on the markets in a short period of time.

  13. jake commented on Jan 17

    bernanke should stop talking and start cutting…..hes fiddling like nero while rome burned

  14. Neal commented on Jan 17

    The bottom will not be here until there is an actual public panic.

    For your comfort–the panic is almost here.

  15. Matt M. commented on Jan 17

    The bottom will be made when nobody believes a bottom can be made. Need “bids wanted” from the dealers and gap down situations. It’s coming, but noone will trust it when it does.

  16. cinefoz commented on Jan 17

    Auto Mechanic Guy,

    Believe it or not, extreme fear is a good sign, providing new bad news stops arriving in the same quantities. Nobody has a crystal ball, but history and common sense are good guides.

    1) The stock market will not fall to zero

    2) Once interest rates drop, buyers will enter the market. This will bring more buyers.

    3) In spite of the terror talk on the financial networks, a lot of people still have equity in their homes. Not everyone is a subprime pauper. Low rates will bring out the home equity borrowers.

    4) A lot of industries are still making money, just a little less at this time. Making a little less is not the same as losing money.

    5) A lot of stocks are dirt cheap right now. Even if they go down a little more, they will eventually rise to more normal levels. This is a tremendous buying opportunity.

    6) Recessions have massive layoffs. Outside of finance and homebuilding, where are they? Last dip, it was common to read about 20,000 people being laid off, multiple times per weeks from different companies. Now, if 130 people get laid off it is front page news.

    7) The drop in the Baltic Dry Ship Index is not quite as significant as you might think. Chart footnotes say the dropoff is due to a cutback in red hot demand plus NORMAL SEASONAL SLOWDOWNS. It may look scary, but it isn’t as bad as it looks.

    8) The market may not be priced for a recession because one is not coming?

  17. scorpio commented on Jan 17

    no one says the market’s going to Zero. what if SPY falls to 800 like 10/02? or to 450 like 1995, when this bullshit run began? put up a long-term chart of the market. we’re sticking out like crazy since 1995 and looks like a long way down from here.

  18. michael schumacher commented on Jan 17


    #6 does it occur to you that the reason we have not seen that yet is that may be our wonderful way of reporting on “job creation” does’nt really factor in the reality of business’ already operating the “productivity squeeze” on it’s current (about to be former) employee’s?

    #5 Totally subjective call…cheap in relation to what??? historical prices?? last 5 years?? (that doesn’t mean much since we got here on cheap money and we are starting to see the effects of that).

    #2 Buyers still have to qualify….no matter what the interest rate is. Just because we are mirroring Japan does’nt mean that these banks will all of a sudden begin to lend again. They are all in survival mode at this point…..lending money at lower rates is not something that will cause buyers to return. Lowering the inventory and dropping prices will help that but certainly not solve it.

    #8 well it better pull it’s head out of it’s ass because we are in a bear market (the loss of the August lows) but I understand why they will not admit it because they have a system that is set up (at least now) to only realize asset appreciation….down is an ugly word so it’s no surprise that we get two vastly different stories: one driven by data and economic indicators (reality) and the “trust me” story being espoused by the powers that be.

    AS far as the Merril news today they still are clueless, CFO could’nt quantify it’s remaining exposure and then Thain said, in essence, “we’re ok with it”……exactly the same thing said by JPM yesterday.

    In reality they are in the same position as C but with less exposure to consumer credit but the market reacts to Thain being a “more confident liar”……..


  19. Adam commented on Jan 17

    cinefoz, don’t ignore the possible negative macro events on the horizon:

    1. possible hangover for Chinese economy after rampant infrastructure buildup dissipates post-Olympics (think Y2K in US)

    2. Deocratic takeover of exec and leg branches of Congress means higher taxes somewhere

  20. ECONOMISTA NON GRATA commented on Jan 17

    Good chart…. However, 200 day moving average, or any other price moving average for that matter is meaningless.

    Having said this, it would come as no surprise to see a short term correction rally in the next couple of days. This could happen from any price level basis the S&P.

    The fact is that if we’re not in a recession already we will surely be in a severe and extended one in the near future. I anticipate that this will be one of those economic slow downs that will be remembered in the history books.

    Stimulation package….? I hardly think so….. ;-)


  21. cinefoz commented on Jan 17


    Look at a LOGARITHMIC chart, not a linear chart.


    Assume a 10% gain on 1000. It is 100. Now, assume a 10% gain on 2000. It is 200. Both gains are 10%, but one gain amount is 100% greater than the other. When charting linear gains like that over a long period of time, you end up with charts that point upwards after a while.

    When you use log charts, the gain or loss is normalized and you can see true relationships more clearly.

    I see a rather benign chart using logs. Using linear charts I see a line going straight up, but the annual gains have not been the massive percentages implied by the slope.

    Thus ends the math lesson.

  22. jf commented on Jan 17

    As long as you’re going to employ technical analysis, you might as well mention that the chart above looks like a ginormous triple bottom. As other commenters have stated, if you could zoom out to the beginning of the 20th Century, perhaps we could put this “range” in a more sample rich context.

  23. cinefoz commented on Jan 17


    China will not close for business after the Olympics.

    Read some books, ok?

  24. Peter Davis commented on Jan 17

    I don’t believe we’re seeing any signs of a bottom. Capitulation? None out there. Even though the selling has been steady, it hasn’t been rabid; we have yet to see any sort of panic which has historically indicated a bottom.

    Additionally, almost all sectors are in bear markets and have been for many months. And now the leaders are beginning to break down. Ags, which have been so strong, took a huge hit yesterday. Oils look like they could be topping. Big cap tech is getting slammed.

    There have been no long-term bases in stocks or indices that are indicative of a bottom. Almost everything is a falling knife right now. While I expect we’ll bounce soon, that is by no means a bottom. It will simply be a bear market rally and one that should only be bought by suckers.

    We’re only down about 13% from the top. This thing has legs.

  25. Donny commented on Jan 17


    Some of us believe that a lot of the growth in the economy and the markets the last several years is illegitimate and unsustainable.

    My ironic point is, the tide has changed directions, many people are nude.

  26. michael schumacher commented on Jan 17

    to further Peter Davis’ point:
    There will be no bottom unless there is a capitulation bottom. Currently that is not being allowed to occur since the permabulls are consistently waiting for (and unfortunately getting) the artificially created rally’s that keep the washout from happening. The same psychology can be applied to the R.E. market where it’s still 2006 to them…..

    Very few people involved in the markets have seen a capitulation bottom. I’m surprised that the old-timers have not chimed in on this more as it is an essential part of any recovery period.


  27. Michael C. commented on Jan 17

    So much emotion everywhere.

    Financials reporting endless write-downs. Bernanke constant disappointment. No rallies will hold. The bear market is here.

    Seems like almost everything is pervasive enough to start buying in. So I’m taking the hard and lonely road and will sell when all the doom and gloom dissipates as it always does.

  28. dukeb commented on Jan 17

    Somebody’s got to end the italics… I’ll take a try.

  29. Steve Barry commented on Jan 17

    Also, if the 200 day MA starts accelerating down, this metric could appear to improve, even as stock keep falling.

  30. Costa commented on Jan 17

    I have heard from a few other blogs talking about capitulation bottoms. I haven’t traded to long and this is the first I heard of this really. Does anyone have a example of what it might look like on a chart? Or what signs could hint this type of bottom?

  31. michael schumacher commented on Jan 17


    Although it doesn’t get specifically into capitulation bottoms I whole-heartedly rec. the following book for anyone who is at a similar position in there trading careers. I find myself going back to it more than most other books.

    Pay particular attention to the section on “identifying Market Tops”


    It is an old book however the concepts in it are as useful today as when it was written.


  32. Pat Gorup commented on Jan 17

    “Economic stimulus package on the way, baby!”

    Now there’s a double helping of inflation. More money being arbitrarily spent and the government promising to pay for it sometime in the future thru Paygo. Oh yeah, right. 100B is like putting a bandaid on a open arterial wound.

    I think Cinefoz is a CNBC mole.

  33. Peter Davis commented on Jan 17

    I’d agree that there’s a lot of gloom out there, but I’ll further my initial point with four more:

    1) There’s a lot of junk still in the trunk. While there’s a lot of bad news out there, more comes out every day. It is my opinion that the credit market problems extend far beyond the mortgage mess and that there is much more to come. I am also of the opinion that there is a serious systemic financial risk right now. I’m not saying everything’s going to meltdown (I’m not an economist nor am I fundamentalist); I am saying that there is significant risk.

    What happens if a monoliner bond insurer goes bankrupt – or even gets a credit downgrade? What happens to all the muni bonds that are insured?

    My point is that so many people keep saying that the bad news is priced in – right before more bad news comes out. There’s no way to really know what more there is, but there is definitely a pattern I see. The banks, insurers and everyone else holding bad paper have yet to fully show their hands. Instead, they’re declaring only part of their losses in the hope that, at some point, the rest of the crap they hold will actually be worth something. Case in point: Citi reports an $18 billion loss, but it still has $37 billion of subprime exposure. Anyone think they’re done?

    2. What’s most important isn’t the bad news; it’s the market’s perception of it. Just because the cat’s out of the bag doesn’t mean the market (by the market, I’m referring to all of the participants who comprise it – the crowd) will jump for joy and start buying again. If the market interprets this news as a longer-term negative for securities, it will collectively sell.

    3. Don’t discount the shock effect. We’re in a fragile state right now. What if consumer spending falls off a cliff? What if there’s a shock to the oil market? It’s no secret that about 50 Islamic fundamentalist groups would love nothing more than to blow up the Saudi oil refineries. Wonder what that would do to the market?

    My point is that any such shocks could have a very strong effect on a fragile market – much more so than if we were in a healthy rally.

    4) Wait for confirmation. I’m not here to preach certain trading/investing methods. But if you’re trying to time the market, I do believe it is imperative to learn to read the technicals. The technicals are telling me that this market is going down and won’t be stopping anytime soon. (This includes a bear rally.)

    If you’re Jim Rogers and a) don’t care to time the market and (b) have the pockets to withstand large drawdowns, that’s fine. But if you’re more concerned with limiting your risk, don’t go jumping into the long side simply because your own logic tells you we have to get a rally. Oversold can become very oversold in bear markets. Again, we’re only down 13%. In the scheme of things, that’s nothing.

  34. Steve Barry commented on Jan 17


    You could have a capitulation bottom on a minute by minute chart that lasts for a day…you can have a bigger capitulation that lasts for weeks, months or years. It is a sharp drop and rebound on the same day. August 16 2007 is what a capitulation bottom looks like. That one led to a sharp 2 month rally. I never trusted that rally, as it came on half the volume as the decline phase and I was proven correct as now we are breaking the 8/16 lows.

  35. michael schumacher commented on Jan 17


    In no way was that a capitulation bottom…..
    Not even close….

    It may appear that way through the volume traces…but that was not one.

    It will occur and it will take the form of something that we have never seen before (even the mid 70’s won’t be a tell because rates were already high and had room to drop-we don’t have that luxury now).

    It will be fast, furious and unrecognizable….having said that I still underestimate the perception of the Fed and Treasurey…..they can and will do everything to avert the inevitable. But I think the only thing they have going for them is the perception of doing something…that is powerful enough to stall it but will not keep it from happening.


  36. Steve Barry commented on Jan 17


    It is semantics really. If you are a day trader, 8/16 was a pretty good capitulation. If you buy and hold for 10 years, it wasn’t. Capitulation requires context of your time frame, IMO.

  37. Peter Davis commented on Jan 17

    MS –
    You got it right. It’s gonna be U-G-L-Y.

  38. michael schumacher commented on Jan 17

    Well the title of this blog is “Big Picture” so my comments/observations are from the standpoint of more than just a day…..


  39. Steve Barry commented on Jan 17


    That being said, I am on record on this blog from 1/2/08 saying this would be the worst year in S&P500 history (-43% in 1931) if you apply a historically generous 1 times multiple on S&P revenue I estimate of 900 per share.

  40. cinefoz commented on Jan 17

    Pat Gorup,

    Nope. I’m just someone who values education, as opposed to the usual uninformed, repetitive blather that qualifies as opinion, but nothing else. I’m also vain enough to know that some people might value an informed analysis of current financial events, such as mine.

    Also, I find that writing about stuff forces me to actually understand the concepts of which I claim to know. This is beneficial and profitable.

  41. Red Pill commented on Jan 17

    I see a rather benign chart using logs. Using linear charts I see a line going straight up, but the annual gains have not been the massive percentages implied by the slope.

    Thus ends the math lesson.

    Posted by: cinefoz | Jan 17, 2008 12:33:19 PM

    Very naive. Mathematics is an abstraction we “overlay” onto natural phenomenon to gain insight. You should become familiar with what is at the end of these exponential curves in real world situations.

    Additionally, there is the disturbing presence of fantasy thinking in this post which focuses on the look of the data (“benign chart”) and not what it means. We live in a closed system. You should think long and hard about what that means in the context of exponential curves (whether we take the log or not). This type of fantasy thinking is why we have bubbles. It sounds on the surface like a strong point, but is actually empty. I think we understand taking the logarithm of an exponential gives a linear function. Also in the news, the derivative of a function gives the instantaneous slope.

    I’ll get my math lessons elsewhere, thank you.

  42. michael schumacher commented on Jan 17

    >>forces me to actually understand the concepts of which I claim to know. >>

    if you need to write about them to understand them then…. Writing about it is the manifestation of comprehension….but not according to you.

    Nevermind…..As I’m sure he’ll continue to ignore anyone challenging what he “needs to write about in order to fully understand it”


  43. cinefoz commented on Jan 17

    Red Phil,

    Using log charts removes exponential variation from the chart. Look at Yahoo S&P using both linear and log. One uses compounding, creating a line that eventually goes straight up. The other shows normal activity.

    Try learning how graphs work by taking some math classes, and not by poking at the entrails of some road kill in front of your house.

  44. Steve Barry commented on Jan 17

    Next stop on the Dow is 11,300. Google is sure to go to 500. I am all long QID.

  45. cinefoz commented on Jan 17

    michael schumacher,

    So, you prefer to write about things you know nothing about? Is this more pure to your philosophy? Thanks for the heads up. Now I know how much credibility to give your posts.

    I still prefer to know what I am talking about. Sorry you don’t hold such things in the same high regard.

  46. michael schumacher commented on Jan 17

    you continue to prove to the assembled masses here that you fail to comprehend what you claim “unless you write about it”

    Go look up the word comprehension and then get back to us when you are able to understand that someone can have a different opinion and still have a rationale disagreement.

    You seem to not “comprehend” that at all. Good luck with the “sage” attitude over the last few days. I see right through it.


  47. Auto Mechanic Guy commented on Jan 17

    It’s scary when you even have Jim Cramer saying he’s not buying anything here because the market will continue to tank.

    (Of course he probably IS buying something)

  48. Jdamon commented on Jan 17

    Steve Barry –

    Do you like the GOPPZ.X March 560 puts on GOOG? If you were going to buy some puts, what price/expiration would you buy?

  49. Steve C commented on Jan 17

    The vix is now at 27. Up 10% today. We’re now getting close to being there. “There” will a tradeable bounce. That’s all.

  50. michael schumacher commented on Jan 17

    Selling accelerating…….
    The Fed will bail this out in the dead of night…it is a three day weekend and we re WELL below the August lows, going into an options expiry. You could’nt write a better script (even with a striking writer!!)

    Watch for it at about 1:30am EST……or right before the open depending on how the Asian markets react to this-I’m guessing not very well at this point.


  51. John commented on Jan 17

    An emergency rate cut would be suicidal. It might prompt a temporary blip and then the sell off would start. If you wanted evidence of Bernanke panic an emergency cut would be it. So it aint going to happen. Absent an October 87 moment I don’t think Bernanke gives a damn if the market goes to the low 11’s

  52. Steve Barry commented on Jan 17


    Options aren’t my bag…but the Feb 500 should soar. Don’t want to go too far out, so stick with Feb or March.

  53. cinefoz commented on Jan 17

    Crap. Missed it by one day.

  54. michael schumacher commented on Jan 17

    I do agree with you John however he is not his own man. We have seen plenty of evidence of this while he trades long term thinking for the perception of short term gain.

    Someone else will make that decision for him.


  55. D.H. commented on Jan 17

    Moving right along … the market will continue to go down until it does not. Isn’t that what the true sages say?

    So long as the news is horrible, the market will fall. We cannot have a rebound in the midst of today’s type of data UNLESS we are coming off 1987 or 9/11 type of capitulation.

    The only bet out there in the near term is whether or not some surprise info will refocus our attention from pessimism to optimism. In the mean time, all I keep seeing is more and more reasoning all over the media and web asserting why we are ready to have a bounce.

    Maybe we will have to wait until some better earnings info and short term memory loss starts affecting the less savvy crowds …

  56. michael schumacher commented on Jan 17

    BTW someone is/has spent ALOT of money propping up SBUX over the last three days…..


  57. Steve Barry commented on Jan 17

    Barry’s Update says:

    UPDATE: January 17, 2008 4:00

    This is a 10 year, weekly chart. I thought that was self explanatory, above. Some of you seem, tot hink this is a bottom call right now. It is not precise to the day. When you look at the 1998 and 2002 lows, these are processes that develop over weeks and months. I thought that was clear from the graph, but apparently a few of you misunderstood it. I regret any ambiguity.
    I don’t think it was ambiguous. I just think using data that almost 100% covers the biggest equity and real estate bubbles of all-time simultaneously may give a false signal. Even I think we are now closer to the bottom after today. If the market falls 0.01 tomorrow, we again will be closer to the bottom. I will call a short-term cover oppurtunity when the 10 day put-call gets to 1.3 (probably in 2 weeks at this rate). As for THE bottom, I don’t see it in sight.

  58. Tim commented on Jan 17

    Thanks for the update. I understood that it was a 10 yr chart. Having said that, can you (or someone with quick access) give us an update – what was the % on the closing numbers that finished under the 200 ma.

  59. Steve Barry commented on Jan 17

    ABX indices hitting new lows. One oddity…BBB (07-01) is priced 14.05, BELOW the BBB- (07-01) at 14.09. Is this meaningful? Both may be headed to zero.

  60. Eric Davis commented on Jan 17

    Wow, Rough day guys……

    Trust a Bear market to beat the crap out of everyone… That will be the result. And honestly unless your super aggressive, and ready to take some losses… B@NDS!
    Or just stay gross short till the 3Month MA in jobs hits 100K

    There are tons of great short term ones…

    I have this Ridiculous willingness to g@mble… but I hate P@ker.(this can be a blessing and a curse.. and not the best trading strategy)

    But this market has much lower to go….. The question is always WHEN?

    cinefoz, calling a bottom is brave… and I respect the hell out of him for it…

    and if he is wrong he will pay for it, so nobody has to remind him of it.

    I also thing MS is right, if the fed doesn’t cut tonight, we could see 11K by Monday-tuesday.
    But honestly, that could have been uncle Ben’s plan, to wait for the testimony, then give the market a shot in the arm.

    but I could just be talking my book ;)

    I trade to make money, not to be right about macro economics. and where the market is going and the economics of things, have been fairly divergent for quite some time.

    I agree that Cutting is the dumbest thing to do….. but Uncle Ben keeps playing this wrong.

    Regardless of all that, I am always happy to have this blog to read, and have Y’all here Duking it out……

    It’s the best thing in the world….

    Without Disagreement,and being wrong, we learn nothing.

    further note… it only makes you look 5 years old to call names, and the other crap…

    but don’t let that stop you… I’m not even sure who I saw doing it…

    Long day for me :)

  61. wunsacon commented on Jan 17

    Echoing Eric’s statement (and Winston’s yesterday or so), please, folks, don’t make this a Yahoo message board.

    I don’t know who’s right here: MS, AutoMechanicGuy, cinefoz, PeterDavis. You all make points that seem valid (to me — which is why I’m really confused the past 6 months as an investor).

  62. Byno commented on Jan 17

    Since someone asked about capitulation bottoms, October 20, 1987 is about as textbook of an example as you’ll get. If, and that’s a BIG IF, we’re going to get some kind of capitulation bottom, it should look like that. For another great example, check out the 1998 lows (there were two, both with incredible volume spikes).

    I know these drops are no fun if you’re long (and a source of shameful joy if you’re in cash or short), but 2.5% on one day isn’t much to get excited about at bear market beginnings. For example, before that 1998 bottom, we got a couple of 4 and 5% whacks on the Dow before the REALLY big down days came. Same in ’87.

    What will be most interesting is whether or not the retail investor sets us up for some kind of mini-Black Monday or if churn for a few weeks before drifting further down.

  63. Jdamon commented on Jan 17

    Does anyone know what the worst NAZ, DOW or S&P performance has been in the month of January? If things keep on this pace, I have to believe we will shatter tha all-time record. Probably good to know this info if most are short here.

  64. Byno commented on Jan 17


    That would be January, 1982, @ -5.25%

    January returns over the last 140 years or so are Gaussian, and a return of -4% or lower has only happened twice; not surprising given that January’s non-div reinvested return is 1.65% with an S of 2.84%.

    Of course, the stock market’s tumble today is the lead story on the CBS Evening News, so a bounce seems reasonably imminent.

  65. ARISTOTLE commented on Jan 17

    Uhhh, Cinefoz, how many people got laid off in the mortgage industry a few months back? Yah, this is just a little correction in the bull market. NOT!

  66. A Dash of Insight commented on Jan 17

    Do they ring a gong at the bottom?

    Trading lore says that they do not ring a gong at the bottom. At A Dash we are interested in any successful approach — fundamental or technical. We are open to human interpretation of data and that derived from systems.

  67. me in OC commented on Jan 18

    This graph has its uses, but it can be very misleading.
    The “20% buy signal” is real, but all during the time at 20% (quite a while in 2002), the market is dropping. This is an acceleration graph, and a 20% reading shows prices are falling. In my opinion, there is certainly no rush to buy ANYTHING !

  68. Francois commented on Jan 18

    “Deocratic takeover of exec and leg branches of Congress means higher taxes somewhere”

    Higher taxes for who?
    Or those who have fought so hard to become financial dynasties exempt from any taxes?

    just take a look at the change in tax burden distribution in the last 30 years. Measured as a share of the economy, 43% increase in payroll taxes, 50% decrease in estate and corporate taxes and 21% decrease in individual income taxes. And…the cherry over the sundae, those who use the low rate of capital gains taxes do NOT pay the AMT, while more and more middle class people get caught by it.

    I guess this is call fairness a la Republican.

    There will be a redistribution of the fiscal burden under the guise of fairness and progressiveness. From those who can pay more to those who need it the most.

    I fail to see anything wrong with that.

  69. The Dirty Mac commented on Jan 18

    “There will be a redistribution of the fiscal burden under the guise of fairness and progressiveness. From those who can pay more to those who need it the most.”

    The AMT was enacted to endure fairness and progressiveness. A classic example of the common people knowing what they want and getting it good and hard.

  70. Sam Jacob commented on Jan 19

    the number of NYSE stocks > 200ma , is at 417 now. during the 2002 bottom , it was below 200. but that was at the end of a long bear market and most of the stocks were below 200ma for a long time. In the current scenario, most of these stocks just came down after making a top and went below 200ma after a long time. during past corrections after 2003, the #of stocks > 200ma, bottomed around 650 or above(35-40%). this time it’s different, it violated prior levels. In typical technical analysis scenario, we should see a rally that takes these stocks back to their 200ma ,and kiss the line from below, and retreat to new lows, in the next wave of selling.
    note: we had 1700(85%) reading at the beginning of 2007.

  71. Digital Prince commented on Jan 19

    While I’ve been unable to actually find a list of them, according to barchart.com (http://www2.barchart.com/momentum.asp – at page bottom) the percentage of stocks now above their 200-day SMA is 17.16%. Even though they don’t say which basket of stocks this figure applies to, I hope everyone’s happy now — even if the VIX hasn’t quite reached high enough to satisfy some.

    I’m sorta surprised no one mentioned the obvious head-and-shoulders formation easily visible on any one year chart. Such a formation has an easily calculable price objective. It depends on which index you prefer, and where you draw the neckline, but for the NASDAQ I get a number around 2300 (we closed Friday at 2340, with intraday lows at 2325).

    For the Dow and the S&P500 I get somewhat lower objectives (11,400 and 1265), but there’s no rule which says we have to reach those levels before there’s any significant rally — say back up to the neckline — or that all markets have to reach their objectives at the same time.

    Since we convincingly broke this past week the multi-year support trendline connecting the mid-August 2004 and Summer 2006 lows, the bull market which goes back many years is now officially over and done. But this doesn’t mean it’s only all downwards from here. We’re a virtually unprecedented 10+% below the 200-day SMA — about half of that in the last week (can you say capitulation?) — so we could easily rally back up quite a ways before starting down and completing the bottoming process, which could take the better part of the year.

    The nature of market sell-offs in recent decades is that they’ve become short and sharp, as opposed to the prolonged multi-year bear markets of previous eras, so we’re OK unless we take out the 2002 lows and make a big double-top on the 25-year chart.

  72. nm commented on Mar 19

    Re: percent stocks over 200MA
    Can you suggest a link to a site that will identify the component stocks that are still over the 200MA?

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