Real Estate Connect NYC 2008


I am speaking on a panel tomorrow at the Real Estate Connect NYC 2008 conference:

The Housing Debate: Bull vs. Bear

Wednesday, January 9, 3:30 p.m.
– 4:15 p.m.

Where is
the housing market headed? More doom? Stability? Or modest recovery? Join this
lively debate between housing bulls and bears who present differing views of
housing’s future. 


, President & CEO, Prudential Douglas Elliman
, Director of Equity Research, Fusion IQ
, Founder, RE Salesperson,
Nouriel Roubini
, Co-Founder & Chairman of RGE Monitor; Professor
of Economics, New York University’s Stern School of Business

Moderator: Andrew
Ross Sorkin
, Assistant Editor, Business & Finance, Chief Mergers
and Acquisitions Reporter, The New York


Should be fun — swing by if you can — New York Marriott Marquis Times Square (1535 Broadway)

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What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. D H commented on Jan 8

    PLEASE cite the post you made today about Jim Stack’s research. Then have an intern video the bulls while you post it for all to see. That would be priceless!!

  2. michael schumacher commented on Jan 8

    that roubini picture:

    “bend the spoon…….bend the spoon”


  3. zero529 commented on Jan 8

    Maybe it’s just because you’re between Pamela Liebman and Dottie Herman, but I think you need a better picture.

  4. joe nordman commented on Jan 8

    How to find the specifics presented today
    (Jan. 8, 2008) on CNBC prior to 12 Noon EST
    concening the relationship between consumer spending, business spending and the economy?
    What was the specific data and the data sources graphically presented?

  5. Ross commented on Jan 8

    I do so hope the panel addresses the need and merits of National House Care.

    The ‘crisis’ will abate when the cover of Time reports the death of real estate.

    Have a good time!

  6. MOB commented on Jan 8

    For those of us not blessed enough to in NYC, will this be available over the interwebs?

  7. michael schumacher commented on Jan 8

    anyone else catch the irony of the fellow from the R.E.B. of New York….

    Spinola?!! Someone please go if only to hear them introduce this guy. And I’m not prejudging this at all..he very well may have some realistic views on the situation..

    But that name…..HAHAHHAHAHAAHH


  8. Stuart commented on Jan 8

    The state coffers cannot afford a real estate downturn anywhere near what is predicted. The impact of the fall in real estate values on the state and federal budgets should be a topic that is openly discussed in this debate. The implications, per below are dire.

    [In a letter included in the 2007 Financial Report of the United States Government, David M. Walker, the U.S. comptroller general, once again refused to certify or render an opinion on the consolidated financial statements contained in the report, noting “the federal government’s inability to demonstrate the reliability of significant portions of the U.S. government’s accompanying accrual basis consolidated financial statements for fiscal years 2007 and 2006.”

    In his letter, Walker also noted the first wave of the baby boom generation has begun to leave the work force and file for retirement benefits.

    Walker observed the budget and economic implications “will only intensify as the baby boomers age,” resulting in the dire consequence “that our nation is on an imprudent and unsustainable long-term fiscal path that is getting worse with the passage of time.”

    “That’s an understatement,” Williams said. “What the comptroller of the United States is telling us is that as bad as a $4 trillion federal budget deficit and a $54.3 trillion GAAP negative net worth is, the situation with the federal budget deficit is only going to get worse as the baby boomers retire and demand retirement services, including Social Security and Medicare payments.”]

  9. Lew Dunbar commented on Jan 8

    How come David Lereah and Casey Serin aren’t part of the panel ?

  10. michael schumacher commented on Jan 8


    That is the main (mostly) premise of many of Kiyosaki’s books. The “rich dad, poor dad” series that basically takes several books to say exactly what you have posted above.

    It’s a safer bet that what has been described above will actually take hold of our market in the next 2-5 years…..just as it recovers from the current “issues”.


  11. michael schumacher commented on Jan 8

    Here’s the latest on “tangelo” via Dealbreaker

    On Monday, February 17, 2004, the National Mortgage News informed its readers that Angelo Mozilo wanted to eliminate downpayments on mortgages. Actually contributing equity to purchase a home is “nonsense,” Mozilo tells the News. He decries credit score requirements as too high.
    “The only way we can have a better society,” Mozillo says, “is to make sure those who don’t have a house have the opportunity to get one.”

    I bet halting the stock allowed some of your “friends” some opportunity to dump shares into an unknown announcement.

    How he still has a job is astounding.

  12. jult52 commented on Jan 8

    They must have photoshopped out the tinfoil hat on Roubini’s head.

  13. michael schumacher commented on Jan 8


    Almost as if “they” were waiting for that…..

    bought it off that pretty hard IMO….what do ya think they do with the November low?? they need to get it back there in a hurry…..LOL


  14. Michael C. commented on Jan 8

    I would like to know what all the banks are going to do with all the REO’s.

    Are we ever going to know? There are still REO’s that are vacant and not on the market, and there are still banks that are not accepting short sale offers.

    Will it take a major lender (ie. CFC) going out of business to finally say, “let’s get these homes off our books once and for all and price these homes so that they sell within 60 days because we are a bank/lender not a freakin’ REIT.”

  15. michael schumacher commented on Jan 8

    Here’s the scenario for tomorrow:

    market double bottoms the August lows and “they” take over and push it right back up here 12,600…….

    or we get yet another dose of “goldilocks” from (insert any gov’t sponsored agency or cabinet member’s name here).

    It might not even hold 12,600 today….we shall see.


  16. Eric Davis commented on Jan 8

    MS, I’m having a hard time even thinking about clearing anything but intraday shorts….

    I think we get lower, then bounce back to this level….
    We saw some Beautiful pain yesterday and we are almost there today. Finally we convincingly broke support.

    Every time you hit support and bounce, everyone calls Double bottom… It’s like all the double top calls that you just hear over and over.

    FWLT is down huge.

    I don’t want to curse it, but the swing trade I’m in is up 16%

    we don’t even pay attention to write downs any more…. Oh! what is another billion among the money center banks. Wake me when it’s huge.

  17. michael schumacher commented on Jan 8

    I’ve taken some profit only because I KNOW that this will be rescued in some form so I’d rather bank some profit then just add to the position.

    BTW I hope some of you got the earlier message about SBUX…..LOL


  18. Eric Davis commented on Jan 8

    You know the credit markets are fine. KBH said that anyone with a job and 2-5% down can get financing. the libor spread is fine. There is no reason for an emergency cut….
    Now next meeting I wouldn’t put a .50 or even a full point past them….
    I wonder what the affect of us being the new Carry trade would be.more dollar selling?

    I swear that “The Powers That Be” are doing everything they can to let the banks hang by the rope of their own creation.

    I like your idea 12500 then maybe a bounce over a couple days back to 12800.
    I was thinking maybe a 1370 S&P then a little rebound.

    Also, I think the shorts are getting to be such strong holders, that it’s getting hard to get a short covering rally going.

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