USA Equity Futures: Look Out Below!

Holy Snikes!

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract are off 520 points at 11,586;
Nasdaq futures were at 1773.25, down 76.25.
Standard & Poor’s 500 futures recently were at 1265, down 60.3.

Let me hasten to remind you that this is "contained."

Imagine how much worse it would be like if it were not.

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What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. alex108 commented on Jan 21

    Looks like the next leg down may be here.

  2. bucky katt commented on Jan 21

    I post this as a public service, seriously.

    Today is the real Blue Monday, btw. Tis a date calculated to be the most depressing day of the year, the 3rd Monday of the year.

    I’m dead serious>

    This is according to U.K. psychologist Cliff Arnall, who specializes in seasonal disorders at the University of Cardiff, Wales. Apparently it has to do with money, weather, and failed New Year’s resolutions. Arnall calculated it using seven variables: (W) weather, (D) debt, (d) monthly salary, (T) time since Christmas, (Q) time since failed quit attempt, (M) low motivational levels and (NA) the need to take action.,8599,1704887,00.html

  3. scorpio commented on Jan 21

    it is contained to my diaper. so far. and boy am i glad i started wearing them.

  4. GerryL commented on Jan 21

    It’s the greatest story never told. Or is the greatest story that never happened?

  5. Florida commented on Jan 21

    Tomorrow morning is not looking like it’s going to be pretty. I’m waiting for the Asian markets to open to see how they respond to the previous session’s action.

  6. bucky katt commented on Jan 21

    Maybe this psychologist Cliff Arnall is onto something? I wonder how long before we see stories of jumpers due to severe wipeouts in the markets?

  7. JS commented on Jan 21

    I can’t understand all of the calls for rate cuts here.

    Sure they will prop up equities but how will they benefit the overall economy? I fail to see how they will help. The write-downs will continue rate-cut or not!

  8. halbhh commented on Jan 21

    I suppose confronted with the possibility of losing too much “wealth”, the nations of the world will decide to reflate, etc.

  9. bucky katt commented on Jan 21

    The idiotic and sophomoric speeches by Beranake and the President last week indicates just how asleep the people in charge really are. Clueless as to reality.

  10. Doug Watts commented on Jan 21

    Kool-Aid is actually a very refreshing winter drink …

  11. Alex Khenkin commented on Jan 21

    Could someone please explain briefly to a non-professional:
    1. who and how trades the futures on a day-off, for which date, and what’s the volume compared to a typical weekday morning?
    2. how much should we read into today’s futures if tomorrow morning they will be trading with the hindsight of the Asian/European markets’ action?
    Much obliged,

  12. BG commented on Jan 21

    I’m with GerryL. It’s the greatest story never told……at least until after COB tomorrow in case you still don’t get it!! IDIOT!! I take that back. They will never come clean. It’s sleaze to the death!

  13. Ross commented on Jan 21

    Like the guy who pulled into the far left lane of the autobahn in a Ford. You know he’s gonna get killed. But will it be a Mercedes, Porsche or a Beemer?

    Actually mayhem can be fun to watch sometimes. The old saw about the Socialistic longing for diaster.

    Honey, get my Thorazine…………….

  14. dan in michigan commented on Jan 21

    anyone know of a good (free) way to watch the asian markets? Barry, hell of a good job!

  15. lurker commented on Jan 21

    Australia and New Zealand still falling.
    No buyers have stepped up there.
    Yahoo not giving me updates on the other markets. Did they lock limit down, not open, or what? Maybe Ben’s choppers got there first……..

  16. Quiddity commented on Jan 21

    It would be interesting to see if any of the “circuit breakers” kick in. Is DOW -1350 a possibility (first breaker).

  17. Invigilator commented on Jan 21 is good for the Asian and European markets.

  18. Ross commented on Jan 21

    Nippon mkt down another 1.5%. I too was wondering if anyone had a Google count on NYSE circuit breakers.

    Lone ranger to Tonto “we are surrounded by hostiles, we are in big trouble.” Tonto ” what do you mean we, white man.”

  19. Eric Davis commented on Jan 21

    Alex, I’d like to know too.

    I don’t think the CBOT is open. So, I’m suspect of where they are trading. It’s also a thin market even on the CBOT.

    but it’s Scary.

    Just some more Kool-aid for people, but sometimes markets “Flash Red” like this to show massive problems in the economy, and are trying to get every one’s attention.

    or banks will Crash, our economy will never recover, and all assets will be Seized, not like FDIC is actually worth anything.

    I have -250 futures, but also, this isn’t the first time I’ve seen that reverse by the opening bell.

    Ya… I think the dow futures trade differently than the S&P and naz.
    “the s&P and Naz” I have are positive.

    Maybe the only place we get proper read on the Dow is the CBOT and I don’t think it opens for about 13 hours.

    I remember after the anniversary of the 87 crash when we sold off very hard and the futures were like this.

    I’m just saying have some scepticism. and if you trade, and it’s true, your going to need your sleep tonight.

  20. JayJay commented on Jan 21

    I watch the overseas markets at

    I wonder if we’re getting an “emergency” cut tommorrow?

  21. lurker commented on Jan 21

    Decoupling my arse– and I thought breaking up was hard to do…..

    what a minute that came out wrong…oops so did that.

    how bout those Giants?
    look out below…

  22. jake commented on Jan 21

    Bernanke maybe more out of touch than Michael Brown of FEMA during Katrina

  23. BG commented on Jan 21

    Dow Futures stand at -474 right now. If this thing picks up before the open in the AM, I may have to go buy a case of beer and call in sick tomorrow. This may be worth watching.

    In my humble opinion, we are really in uncharted water. Financial benchmarks aren’t “stretched like never before”. They are now off the page! I hope for prosperity in the future; but that does not make it so. Our prosperity experienced-to-date was earned by hard work and sacrifice with no funny business. What happens when everyone slowly discovers it is now ALL funny business. Nobody knows. Kilrow has not been here before.

  24. rickrude commented on Jan 21

    it is contained to my diaper. so far. and boy am i glad i started wearing them.

    Posted by: scorpio | Jan 21, 2008 5:39:03 PM

    Haaaaa I laughed so hard on that one!!!!!!!!

    some of us caught without diapers on …

    The US still has the ability to puke world markets.
    Maybe Mark Faber was right.

  25. Chris Noyes commented on Jan 21

    Instead of cutting rate how about getting rid of ethanol and food prices will drop 30%.Lealize pot and tax it .With a drugstore on every corner we are already all jacked up.Why keep spending 600$ plus a second to fight drug abuse(most is spent on pot). That alone should help the economy and free up the jails some. The banks are holding alot of bad debt and untill it comes back on the banks books we will not see bottom. It’s going to get really ugly when BOA backs out of countryfried deal .

  26. BB commented on Jan 21

    Futs quotes:

    YM(dow mini) -562
    ES (sp mini) -54
    NQ nazzie -72.50

    as of 6:47 E.S.T. those are live quotes..

    Those of course have not been changed yet and include last nights drop.
    Volume was higher last night on ES than normal.(but thats to be expected for that kind of movement)

  27. Bob A commented on Jan 21

    Ran into Goldilocks smokin meth down on the street corner earlier. She offerred sex for small change but it didn’t seem all that inviting.

  28. LP commented on Jan 21

    Barry you are so wrong…the people at Larry King’s Show on CNN keep telling us this is not the time to sell but rather to buy…so so wrong…and Suze Orman’s running a round yelling at people to dollar cost average…

    All kidding aside…if an average bear market brings down the S&P by 30% what will this bear market do?

  29. BG commented on Jan 21

    A post of the current circuit breakers and associated trading halts on the DOW would be appreciated.

    (Just something to keep in mind tomorrow.)

  30. samsin commented on Jan 21


    Not an expert but I think the values quoted earlier in the day were from the close of the futures market today. The new values you’re seeing are for the futures market for tomorrow. So they reflect (so far) gains from “yesterday’s” futures markets (which were -500, -60 and -70 for DOW, SnP, NASDAQ.)

  31. DC commented on Jan 21

    I wonder if the SEC (?) will bring back the uptick rule for short sales?

  32. Doug Watts commented on Jan 21

    I support the Containment Doctrine. And adult diapers on the back nine.

  33. BG commented on Jan 21

    Hey Bob A,

    Was LK with her? He’s a no show on his show tonight. I guess he just couldn’t suck it up for 60 minutes knowing the backdrop of reality was just before smoking his ass.

  34. Peter Davis commented on Jan 21


    Futures can be traded by anyone, anywhere – at least those on the electronic exchanges. I can’t speak to why anyone who trade them, but I suspect that today it was a mixture of foreign and U.S. traders reacting to the selloffs in foreign markets.

    This massive selloff in the futures will probably result in a huge gap down opening tomorrow. After that, who knows? I’ll be keeping an eye on foreign markets to see how they follow through from today’s selloff. I do believe that there is now panic out there.

  35. John Borchers commented on Jan 21

    If we really go down this hard TV is gonna be a blast tomorrow. I want to see Najarian sweat from all the money turned into toast from options and Cramer pass out.

  36. SteveC commented on Jan 21

    Someone asked if the futures markets were operating on thin volume. The answer is no. The futures markets are actually quite busy today. Globex opened around their normal time, which is after 4:15 PM eastern. As of 7:10, over 23000 S&P futures contracts have already traded, which is much higher than a typical late afternoon after the pits close. Just because the market is closed, don’t believe players aren’t aware of what’s happening. All pros are aware.

  37. Eric Davis commented on Jan 21

    That is awesome, the futures just gap down to a Bear…


  38. Peter Davis commented on Jan 21

    Now that we’ve had this big selloff, I suspect that we’ll be hearing more calls of “capitulation”. But consider that this selloff took place when the U.S. markets were closed, and the U.S. are the crux of this whole mess.

    While it’s pretty obvious that we’re going to open massively lower tomorrow, I believe we’re in some dangerous territory. We may get the long awaited bounce in the next few days, but I’ve also been going back and reviewing charts of 1987. Yes, the “c” word.

    I’m not saying it will happen, but it could. The panic is starting to set in just now, and my concern is that this could possibly touch off a massive deleveraging that could really send the markets spiraling.

    When the markets plunged in February of 2007, all of the major world indices sold off less than 3%, with the exception of China (which I discount a bit, given its inherent volatility). Yesterday, the world indices sold off between 4.55% and 9.85%.

    While I’m not saying we’re going to collapse, I’m keeping it in the back of my mind, because I think it’s a real possibility.

    I would not be at all surprised if the Fed jumped in and cut rates tomorrow morning. But if we get a massive rally, I may be even more weary, because I don’t think rate cuts will solve the problem. Any such rally, in my opinion, is potentially dangerous because when the markets realize that nothing has really changed, we could be in a wee spot of trouble.

    Just something to keep in mind…

  39. Byno commented on Jan 21

    Japan’s off another 4% to start the day.

    Let’s see:

    Europe – as measured by the Stoxx 50 – was off nearly 7% overnight, and Japan is down about 8% in the last two days.

    Honestly, I thought Japan would open much lower, but for now it appears that the damage to overseas markets isn’t accelerating.

    We’ll see if that proposition still holds when I wake up tomorrow AM.

  40. John Borchers commented on Jan 21

    Just think of how many companies are in the hush period right now where employees can’t buy or sell company stock.

  41. Byno commented on Jan 21



    Wait, it’s over now.

    Continue plummet.

  42. Bob A commented on Jan 21

    “can’t speak to why anyone who trade them”

    …because they’re makin money while everyone else is snoozin’ and/or telling the faithful to buy and hold.

  43. brazilian outsider commented on Jan 21

    Dow is not gonna crash. Foreigners messed with american cheese and they are putting it back in place. Dow opens at 12k.

  44. John Borchers commented on Jan 21

    Nikkei is actually down over 600 points now from live CNBC Asia.

  45. BG commented on Jan 21

    Looks like the anomaly with the S&P and Nasdaq got cleared up.

    From Bloomberg as of 7:53PM EST

    Dow 11,609.00 -497.00 -4.11
    S&P 500 1,265.90 -59.40 -4.48
    NASDAQ 1,774.00 -75.50 -4.08

  46. bluestatedon commented on Jan 21

    As a lifelong Michigander, I’ll make the observation that not only is the rest of the world NOT decoupled from the US economy, but unfortunately it appears that the rest of the US economy is not decoupled from Michigan’s. We feel like we’ve been in a recession for quite a while now, and the rest of the country is just now catching up.

    My condolences….

  47. BG commented on Jan 21

    That’s wierd.

    From Bloomberg as of 7:58PM EST

    Dow 11,584.00 -522.00 -4.31
    S&P 500 1,262.40 -2.70 -0.21
    NASDAQ 1,770.50 -3.00 -0.17

  48. John Borchers commented on Jan 21

    Anyone watching CNBC asia? LOL.

    Chinese companies are missing estimates by about 50%.

    Growth only around 10-14%.

    Humm, same as US. They are gonna tank today!

  49. bluestatedon commented on Jan 21

    “Foreigners messed with american cheese and they are putting it back in place. Dow opens at 12k.”

    Seeing as how the Dow closed last Friday at 12099, opening at 12k doesn’t seem like a monumental thing. What is it going to close at?

    From the looks of things them furriners are replacing our bland Kraft singles with an odiferous and rank Limburger.

  50. just some guy commented on Jan 21

    You think the dow’s going to open tomorrow at 12000? Awesome, I’ll sell you some March YMs at 12000 right now. As many as you want….

    Hell, I’ll even sell you the $25 contracts instead of the little $5 YMs if you want….

  51. Alex commented on Jan 21

    Really, why would anyone take the long side in this environment? I think we are right on the edge of a crash. Too much bad news too soon, with the government obviously completely helpless. Wow.

  52. jjooey commented on Jan 21

    go to

    and click the very, very small “watch now” (in blue color beneath the text) and watch markets go down anywhere in the world!(alternatively sidebar left on the left – click “B..Television” and after that “Launch Player”

    P.S.: I never expected that we would be able to take the DAX down over 7% by ourselves, on a US holiday….

  53. Alex Khenkin commented on Jan 21

    Thanks for the answers guys, we’ll see tomorrow then. I’m mildly long, no leverage, so I’ll sleep fine.

  54. hidebound commented on Jan 21

    re MBIA and AMBAC : the govt has to backstop Buffet so that Buffet can take over the insurance of all govt/city bonds. When these monolines go under they should not take everyone with them. If they do then its the next really great depression. Even with Buffet’s support the risk of this recession turn into the big D is mighty high.

  55. Florida commented on Jan 21

    Okay, did anyone else tune in to Cramer tonight just to see what he was going to say? I had to do it, seeing where the futures markets were at today and what you have to figure the morning’s opening is going to be like.

    Cramer opened his show by lecturing his viewers that while he recommended a bunch of stocks on his show, he NEVER said anyone should actually go out and buy them. He’s gotta be sweating it that his ratings are going to start looking like tonight’s Nikkei open.

  56. John Borchers commented on Jan 21

    Cramer show should have been pre recorded as it was a market holiday.

  57. Eclectic commented on Jan 21


    Thanks a ton for that info. I’m a cheap sum-bitch and my home office TV tuner won’t tune to channel 200, my local Bloomberg channel (it won’t go past 99 – it’s about 25 years old – I’m squeezin’ the nickel till the buffalo shits) – so you’ve solved my late night dilemma for me.

  58. brazilian outsider commented on Jan 21

    Well, 12k is better than 11550 isn’t it?

    It’s a huge step actually… I take your Dow shorts at 11k later this year, how about that?

    I don’t think the market has bottomed out yet but I figure that crashes don’t come like this. Nobody announces a crash, a crash is a surprise and only some people are aware of them.

    If you look at future action earlier this month, you’ll notice that everyday the S&P futures gapped up, they went back down. How about now? Do you americans like it cheap? Here it is then, buy it…

  59. John Borchers commented on Jan 21

    Crashes can happen at anytime. All it takes is a reason that no one wants to buy and everyone wants to sell. Very simple and can happen at any time.

  60. Winston Munn commented on Jan 21

    Gee, what do you know – more profit taking.

  61. PR commented on Jan 21

    Whirr, whirr (that’s the sound of Big Ben’s helicopters warming up for tomorrow’s 75bp rate cut and massive liquidity infusion, maybe even coordinated with ECB and BOJ)

  62. Steve Barry commented on Jan 21

    I predicted on 1/2 on this blog that this would be the worst year in the history of the S&P (down 43% in 1931). I didn’t mean for that to happen by Feb 1. I feel like a basketball palyer who doesn’t call glass before banking a three.

  63. jjooey commented on Jan 21

    Eclectic, you can of course also watch a CNBC (US, Asia, Europe) live stream, but you have to get a CNBC Plus membership for 9.95$ a month – but then it is probably cheaper to get a new tuner…

    And thanks for this nice “squeezin’ the nickel till…” phrase. Hadn’t heard that before…

    Good night from Germany!

  64. D.H. commented on Jan 21

    Looks like the bounce prognosticators may learn something about capital preservation.

  65. Todd commented on Jan 21

    I can hear Kudlow already bleating about how stocks are such bargains and you have to buy the panic.

    Honestly, with everything else the Bush Adminsitration has f*%*(ked up, it should come as no surprise that a stock market meltdown should occur during his presidency. And, this way Republicans can’t blame it on the Democrats as they so want to if it happens now instead of in 2009.

    George W. Bush – WORST STORY EVER, EVER, EVER, EVER TOLD !!!!!

  66. Todd commented on Jan 21

    I can hear Kudlow already bleating about how stocks are such bargains and you have to buy the panic.

    Honestly, with everything else the Bush Adminsitration has f*%*(ked up, it should come as no surprise that a stock market meltdown should occur during his presidency. And, this way Republicans can’t blame it on the Democrats as they so want to if it happens now instead of in 2009.

    George W. Bush – WORST STORY EVER, EVER, EVER, EVER TOLD !!!!!

  67. gunthestops commented on Jan 21

    BIG gap down!!! I like it—I’m giddy as a school girl!!!

  68. Street Creds commented on Jan 21

    This is the part of the movie where all the cowboys run out the front door of the saloon. I can’t imagine a rate cut having much of an effect here. It just might scare everyone. And, its not gonna help. There’s been a lot of sinning in the last eight years.

  69. Eclectic commented on Jan 21


    Dank, aber ich sind ein zu preiswerter Bewegungsfernlastfahrer (“motor trucker”), zum der 9.95 zu zahlen. Froh genossen Sie die Büffelmetapher.

  70. KK commented on Jan 21

    “what will this bear market do?”

    It will do what all bear markets do, which is end, while redestributing shares from the weak hands to the strong. When the NAZZ bear market ended on 10/09/02, the trumpets didn’t sound the all clear, and the “experts” didn’t tell you to buy.

    I wouldn’t get caught up in the dogma on the downside, as that might start getting to be a pretty crowded theme.

    As for this being uncharted or more scary than other bears/events, I think it will be obvious only in the rearview mirror, although they all feel like the big one at the time.

  71. Street Creds commented on Jan 21

    How would you like to be in the bar of a big hotel in Davos tonight? Half the crowd is puking, and the other half are clueless. How many speeches for tommorow are being rewritten on toilet paper? Maybe the repo man is at the Davos airport ferrying out someone’s G 4 as bank collateral.

  72. techy commented on Jan 21


    i like that there is still some bullishness left…

    after all we want some one to bid tomorrow, otherwise where is the fun.

    almost 18 months of selling and 80% down and, you say it was redistribution from “weak to strong”

  73. Sergei commented on Jan 21

    I have a very small penis

  74. Street Creds commented on Jan 21

    Oh hell, its like BP said on another thread, “Go long Valium”

  75. la grande poussée commented on Jan 21

    Actually in the realm of ignorance and arrogance – and we speak of Larry Kudlow and George W.

    Larry Kudlow does not know that time has passed him by.

    George W – thinks we are not related to the Monkey, chimm etc. He is as dumb as a box of rocks

    These are the stories never told – but are about to unfold!

  76. CDizzle commented on Jan 21

    There are two types of investors: those who have never performed due diligence on their belief system and believe shorting stocks is “UnAmerican”, etc….and those who were skeptical enough to be up in 2008. May both groups sleep well tonight.

  77. adam commented on Jan 21

    The Nas was at 2320 on January 6, 1999. Nine years, nothing (down 25% in inflation-adjusted terms). It took 25 years to recover from the Great Depression, so only 16 years to go before we see Nas 5000.

  78. tom a taxpayer commented on Jan 21

    This is what happens when the parents go away for a long-weekend, and leave the teen-agers at home unsupervised. The adults will be returning home Tuesday morning. But the house may be in such a mess that it will not be easy to clean up.

  79. gunthestops commented on Jan 21

    techy<-----lol----we must be near a short term bottom when we get morons like you talking about 80% down--lol---must be your first down market---don't quite your 7-11 job yet!!!

  80. Donny commented on Jan 21

    Sergei said:

    “Finally after calling for a correction for the last 2 yrs – this blog finally got it right !!”

    No one can call a top or bottom to an irrational market, no mater if it’s real estate, credit, or stocks. It’s kinda like asking what a crazy guy will say next.

    However, it’s NOT difficult for anyone with an independent mindset to do his/her own study, using logic and reason, to discover if a market is not sustainable at current prices.

    Isn’t it ironic that current market averages will soon be approaching 2 year lows. Maybe, just maybe, The BP IS RIGHT! And it didn’t take a PHd in economics to realize that. A little commonsense and rational thought made it easy.

  81. john commented on Jan 21

    The Plunge Protection Team will step in tomorrow and limit this sell-off.

  82. Donny commented on Jan 21

    “George W – thinks we are not related to the Monkey, chimm etc. He is as dumb as a box of rocks”

    Not that I want to defend that guy, but I’m not related to monkey’s either, and either was my farther, or his farther, or his farther, or his farther, or his farther, etc, etc, ….

  83. john jansen commented on Jan 21

    Treasury yields are plummetting with 2year at 2.125 percent and 10year ar 3.53 percent.

  84. bt commented on Jan 21

    john jansen, where can I track US treasury yields? I’m assuming you are looking at futures as the bond market won’t open for business until Tue morning.

  85. techy commented on Jan 21


    go back and read again…it was in reply to some one…who was talking about nazz year 2000

  86. JS commented on Jan 21

    Asia getting hammered again!

  87. Stuart commented on Jan 21

    Tonight the GOP needs to determine if it wants to win the next election. If no Ben tomorrow, Dems win a certainty.

  88. Richard commented on Jan 21

    panic in the streets. getting close to buying time….but not yet. these are the moments a long term investor salivates for.

  89. Richard commented on Jan 21

    dems will kill the economy by trying to redistribute wealth and making the the ‘affluent’ pay for it. get ready for a capital gains tax increase and a repeal of the bush tax cuts essentially choking whatever is left of this stagnant economy.

  90. Bob A commented on Jan 21

    Call my cynical but I if there is indeed a team at work, as opposed to just the full moon and tides, it’s more probably a plunge engineering and profiteering team than a plunge protection team.

    Bloomberg TV Asia is interesting tonight

  91. Suge Knight commented on Jan 21

    After visting several different blogs and they infamous yahoo! message board I’m surprised to see more bullish than bearish statements, a few that stand out: “Bernanke will cut rates at the open”, “If you have balls, you should buy now, 6 months from now you’ll be rich”, “Shorts WILL HAVE TO COVER tomorrow”, etc., the shorts will have to cover tomorrow puzzles me. Why will they HAVE to cover tomorrow? I intended to go long in the morning (call me crazy) but after seeing all the bullishness, I’m not too sure this is the bottom. Wouldn’t a capitulation take place when no one expects it as opposed to when just about everyone expects it?

  92. bt commented on Jan 21

    Suge, you should ignore what people are saying on the boards w.r.t their trades tomorrow. The real action comes from big money and they won’t telegraph their moves on message boards. Follow the indexes and you notice that there is a huge selloff in Asia as we speak and the futures are down big. Talk is cheap. Action speaks louder and action now is telling you the sale is on.

  93. Francois commented on Jan 21

    As per MarketWatch, Asian markets are extending the sell off right now. Some commented that the tepid speeches from Bernanke and Presidyent Comrade Bush (if you practice socialism for the wealthy, it is still socialism) as one reason for the markets reaction. (hmmpph!)

    Guess the reality-based crowd out there decided to really sell real stocks for a real loss.

    Tomorrow will be an interesting day in our corner of the planet.

  94. KirkH commented on Jan 21

    They’re halting Indian markets now. Were off 7% yesterday… off 9% today.

  95. Richard commented on Jan 21

    talked to my broker on thursday and wanted to sell a few positions. he talked me into only selling one and keeping the others including a commodities fund. wonder who’s the bigger idiot me or him.

  96. KK commented on Jan 21


    i like that there is still some bullishness left…

    after all we want some one to bid tomorrow, otherwise where is the fun.

    almost 18 months of selling and 80% down and, you say it was redistribution from “weak to strong”

    Techy, market bottoms are made when the weak hands get washed out, and they usually end on a whimper. There is no rule to how long that might be, so we can only be sure in hindsight. I saw the “whimper” happen firsthand when the RTC auctioned off properties at bargain of a lifetime prices, with very little bidding, and you can look for yourself from the news stories from 10/9/02 at the bottom of the NAZZ, there was no love for the market.

    It was not hard to find good returns in the overall market in 2000 & 2001, if you didn’t mind looking away from the crowd and having a valuation bent.

    The greatest bargains are found when fear of present ‘possible’ conditions is coupled with ignorance of past cycles.

    I’m not saying it is actionable tomorrow, but I will keep looking and waiting for a fat pitch.

  97. Steve Barry commented on Jan 21

    I posted this earlier…but it says it all.

    Gravity Lesson

    If I were to short any one stock it would be GOOG…terrible chart, no short interest and losing market share.

    My advice to anyone long this market is to get out on the next 100 point up move so you can sleep at night. Target portfolio is 1/3 cash, 1/3 very short term treasuries, 1/3 QID. Do not hold gold.

  98. BrotherMaynard commented on Jan 22

    Where’s that dern uptick rule when ya need it!?

  99. snoopy commented on Jan 22

    cnbc india, major newspapers are practically begging investors to “stay invested for the long term”. Any sort of bearish commentary is being shunted out.

    One CNBC India anchor mused if it could be the start of a bear market.

    The “expert” replied (not exact quote) “Well the US bull market lasted from 1983 to 2008, so a normal bull market is 15-20 years – why should India be different.”

  100. snoopy commented on Jan 22

    India’s Finance minister on CNBC now, appealing investors to “stay calm”.

  101. Winston Munn commented on Jan 22

    Bush has ordered an end to the writers’ strike in order to get a happier-ending revision of his State of the Union Address…

  102. tom a taxpayer commented on Jan 22

    My favorite quote on the rolling financial thunder:

    “The correction hasn’t finished and will continue until optimists have been wiped out,” said Taku Yamamoto, who helps oversee $107 billion at the Pension Fund Association in Tokyo.

  103. Street Creds commented on Jan 22

    In the FWIW column I am 90% cash 10% short. I wish I was a lot shorter, but at leasts its ProFunds Ultra Short. I like to plan my moves but this is tough. THere is the smell of money, good money to be made. At this point I think following your gut is probably the best idea. Go short at the open ride it down, and that maybe until late afternoon. Decide what to do next depends on where the market is. I think there is BIG long move down so if I don’t buy tomorrow, there is still plenty of time left. I don’t want to keep my new positions overnight. If Ben drops the Fed Funds rate, after a respectable wait, Run.

  104. donna commented on Jan 22

    We’re holding.

    You’re welcome.

    We don’t need it for another 15 years anyway, so what the heck.

  105. b #347 commented on Jan 22

    This will freak you guys out:

    purports to show Ben Bernanke weeping at a recent press conference. Only a few details are remarkably wrong.

    1. Bernanke wears a plain heavy gold ring.
    This doppleganger’s is ornate black and gold band.
    2. Bernanke doesn’t wear cufflinks, just plain white shirts with buttons. This dopplegangers looks like CiC’s seal.
    3. This doppleganger has a mole on his
    right cheek. Bernanke doesn’t.

  106. Mongo commented on Jan 22

    This is going to be a rough week. Fastening your seat belts may not be enough for this ride. Better superglue yourselves to the floorboards and pray for God’s mercy.
    — James Howard Kunstler

  107. AGG commented on Jan 22

    — The World, October 29, 1929

    Stocks Up in Strong Rally; Rockefellers Big Buyers; Exchanges Close 2-1/2 Days
    By Ferdinand Lundberg

    Revived by spontaneous investment buying and declarations of large extra cash dividends by leading companies, and free of the delirium that has recently gripped share owners, the stock market yesterday received a fresh start and scored a record comeback. Volume on the Stock Exchange totaled 10,727,320 shares, the third largest day on record.

    The high spot of the day from a stock market viewpoint was the statement by John D. Rockefeller that there was no need to destroy values and that he and his son, John D. Rockefeller Jr., had been heavy buyers of stocks for investment in the last few days, and would continue to buy at present prices…

    — New York Herald Tribune, October 31, 1929

    Very Prosperous Year Is Forecast

    Guenther Analyzes the Report of Mellon Covering 1929

    That 1930 may be a very prosperous year, industrially and otherwise, without the peak conditions that made 1929 and exceptional year for business prosperity, is an observation made by Louis Guenther, publisher of the Financial World, in a statement based upon Secretary Mellon’s fiscal report…

    “To grow too fast is often unhealthy because of the suddenness with which a readjustment must be met. By far and large the country would be better off were further progress made along more normal lines…

    Fortunately, we have returned to a more normal mind in appraising prospects. We are not looking for the Midas touch on everything to which we turn. That makes us more satisfied with normal incomes and normal profit returns.”

    — The World, December 15, 1929

  108. Johnny Vee commented on Jan 22

    8:00 am EST:Ben cuts 100 bases points;
    10:00 am EST: Bush announces a plan to freeze all teaser and option arms.

  109. Johnny Vee commented on Jan 22

    8:00 am EST:Ben cuts 100 bases points;
    10:00 am EST: Bush announces a plan to freeze all teaser and option arms.

  110. Johnny Vee commented on Jan 22

    12:00 noon EST Market continues to free fall.

  111. engineer al commented on Jan 22

    Is this the Larry Kudlow “Bush ka-BOOM” yet?

    Joe Granville has been predicting a stock market crash since 1982. He’s finally right.

  112. bassface commented on Jan 22

    Johnny Vee–

    Say it ain’t so!

  113. Eric Davis commented on Jan 22

    “excess stock speculation causes market crashes” Debunked that one.

    Anyone want to make bets when we hit the first circuit breaker?


    When will Ben be out of office?

  114. tom a taxpayer commented on Jan 22

    Tick Tock! Tick Tock! Tick Tock!
    Like an episode of ’24’.

    Only 6 hrs until NYSE opening bell.
    Uncle Ben, the clock is ticking.
    The U.S. dollar has strengthened due to the stock market sell-off around the world. The stronger U.S. dollar gives you the leeway for the Fed rate cut.

    However, this leeway for the Fed rate cut can not be counted on past the opening bell. Once the market opens, the U.S. market will get pummeled like the rest of the world markets. Things may spiral out of control during the day. The U.S. dollar may suffer like the Euro suffered on Monday. Or, the $ may maintain or even strengthen. But that is all a gamble if you wait until after the opening bell rings.

    Announcement of a Fed rate cut before the bell is as close to a sure thing in terms of starting from U.S. dollar strength as anytime over the next two weeks.

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  116. Mongo commented on Jan 22

    Can anyone say “Ursury”?

    I knew you could.

  117. PR commented on Jan 22

    Nailed it at 8.41 last night – 75bp! Woohoo, we’re all saved! Thanks PPT. Up by the end of the week.

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