Bear Stearns Makes $1 Billion Bet on Subprime Market Decline

Talk about late to the party!

Bear Stearns, which made a disasterous series of sub-prime bets, has found religion. They have now bet a $1Billion that the Subprime market will decline further:

Bear Stearns Cos., the U.S. securities firm that posted its first-ever loss
last quarter on mortgage writedowns, is betting more than $1 billion that
subprime home loans and bonds will continue to decline.

While I do not expect us to be done with the subprime slime yet, I do get a "Is this a bottom indicator?" sense from Bear on this.

No one firm is a reliable fade. Still, one cannot help but wonder how ironic it would be if they caught leaning the wrong way in both directions . . . 

Source:

Bear Stearns Makes $1 Billion Bet on Subprime Market Decline

Bradley Keoun
Bloomberg, Feb. 8 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ap5RXayJzChk&

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What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. UrbanDigs commented on Feb 8

    where did you hear this Barry? I think they are on the right side of this trade, even if it is late. They probably took the trade many months ago too.

    Housing is the key to this whole mess and no way this BIG SHIP will turn around on the very small propeller that is driving it! More pain to come. 4-5 years of unsustainable gains, it will take at least that to correct the problems that we are facing now.

  2. Street Creds commented on Feb 8

    I sense a lack of stategery at BSC.

  3. UrbanDigs commented on Feb 8

    oops..nevermind..see the bloomberg link.

    my bad.

  4. amok92 commented on Feb 8

    Off topic but it has to be said – Dennis Kneale = idiot.

  5. b commented on Feb 8

    It’s likely a hedging effort on the part of a “late to the party” risk management team.

  6. semar commented on Feb 8

    should we take this as a buy signal?

  7. Bearish commented on Feb 8

    I’m pretty sure 1) they’re significantly up on this trade already and 2) this is more of a business hedge.

  8. Bob_in_MA commented on Feb 8

    The FT had a story this morning about imploding CDOs needing to liquidate and the way you liquadate a synthetic CDO is to buy CDSs on the debt to close the positions that were opened writing CDSs. So even though it seems the CDS indices can’t go any lower, it may be that the will go well below what would be even reasonable to expect from the underlying debt deteriorating.

    In other words, they might not be betting on the subprime debt directly, but against the instruments used to insure it.

    Of course, that could blow up in their face because of the counter-party risk…

  9. hal commented on Feb 8

    I agree that Bear is hedging the rest of the subprime they have not disclosed

    On Dennis Kneale–did you see cramer yesterday or the day before when Knele was saying csco was a buy and could not understand why the stock was down–

    Cramer quietly reamed him out–which in cramer speak means cramer has written off knele and does not respect him

  10. Shrek commented on Feb 8

    What a f’in circus. Bear and the other IBS create bad debt and then try to short them. Anyone who thinks breaking down all financial rules was a good idea think again. This whole system needs to service the real good producing economy not this nonsense that we do now. The problem is we cant go back without blowing up the whole banking system

  11. DealBreaker.com commented on Feb 8

    Time To Go Long Subprime? Bear Stearns Shorts It For $1 Billion

    Bear Stearns has more than $1 billion of short positions on subprime, up $400 million from the end of November, Bloomberg reports. Of course, since Bear Stearns got the subprime trade so wildly wrong last year, people are already wondering…

  12. Pat G. commented on Feb 8

    “While I do not expect us to be done with the subprime slime yet, I do get a “Is this a bottom indicator?” sense from Bear on this.”

    NO WAY!! Two million ARMs will reset in the next 18 months. Despite the glut, builders continue to build homes. Realtors are still enticing buyers with kick backs, teaser ARMs and interest only loans. The greed goes on.

  13. rexl commented on Feb 8

    the banking system is blowing itself up without our help.

  14. Stuart commented on Feb 9

    Bear Stearns did get this call right.

  15. tom a taxpayer commented on Feb 9

    How about a $1 billion bet on whether the first to indict Bear Streans will be a state or federal prosecutor?

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