(With apologies to Paul for stealing the headline) Last month, we took a look at Why Prediction Markets Fail, reviewing some of the more blatant misses. That theme was picked up in a longer NY Times piece today, titled, Looking for Sure Political Bets at Online Prediction Market.
For those of you who are as intrigued about these markets as I am — warts and all — its a must read.
Here’s the NYT Ubiq-cerpt:™ :
It’s no wonder, then, that the site has become a phenomenon. In
recent months, when I have asked former advisers to Mr. Bush or Bill Clinton what they think will happen in 2008, they’ve often talked about Intrade. The Wall Street Journal and The Financial Times run regular online features based on the odds. Journalists — me included
— have praised Intrade as a miniature version of the stock market,
where the collective wisdom of the masses reveals a larger truth.
But now a little backlash has begun. Barry Ritholtz, author of the popular Big Picture economics blog, has put together a list
of Intrade’s misses. Last Tuesday, meanwhile, I e-mailed a high-profile
Democratic economist and asked what he made of the dueling numbers
coming from the California polls and from Intrade. He replied with a
two-word message, the second word of which was “Intrade.”
Fun stuff . . .
Looking for Sure Political Bets at Online Prediction Market
NYT, February 13, 2008
Why Prediction Markets Fail
Friday, January 11, 2008 | 07:50 AM http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/01/prediction-mark.html
Prediction Traders Put Their Money on Obama
WSJ, February 13, 2008; Page A8