Presidential Politics on Intrade

Here’s some interesting data from the friendly (small and thinly traded) markets at Intrade.

Note: I care less about the politics than the group dynamics of these futures markets:
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Obama vs Hillary: 80/20

80_20_obama_hillary

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Obama fans should not get too excited though: In October, Intrade gave him a mere 10% shot of winning the Democratic nomination; In December — a mere 60 days ago — it was 20%:

Obama_chart

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And John McCain is still only a 35% chance to win — but thats up huge from under 5% for most of tlast year (June to December 2007) :

Mccain_chart

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As Dan Gross noted, "these these are less futures markets than immediate-past markets . . ."

via Intrade

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What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. Steve commented on Feb 21

    You don’t think there’s a difference between October of 2007 and today?

    ~~~

    BR: Yes, in October, Obama was not winning, and thats how Intrade “forecasted” the rest of the race.

    Now Obama has won 9 primaries in a row, and voila! 80% going forward, according to this prediction market.

  2. Chief Tomahawk commented on Feb 21

    So if the economy stalls or the evidence of such that arises, the more likelihood of Dems winning Congress and the White House, and the stock market, fearing tax increases, goes into a coma.

  3. Chief Tomahawk commented on Feb 21

    That is, provided the finance industry doesn’t have the economy fitted for a toe tag first.

  4. Knee Bound commented on Feb 21

    Ain’t no man want to vote for no woman who doesn’t get on her knees. That’s the bottom line.

  5. mike commented on Feb 21

    “Obama fans should not get too excited though”

    Why not? Do you know something Intrade doesn’t? If so, why don’t you put your money where your blog is..

  6. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Feb 21

    There isn’t one candidate save Ron Paul who spoke the truth regarding our Economy and Fiat Money System in any of the debates from either Party. He stands no chance, so I guess we will get the government we deserve.

  7. Pat G. commented on Feb 21

    I’d vote for Paul if I thought he stood a chance because Schiff is his economic advisor. McCain & Clinton are the old guard. We’re long overdue for a change!

  8. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Feb 21

    “Obama fans should not get too excited though”

    Why not? Do you know something Intrade doesn’t? If so, why don’t you put your money where your blog is..

    Posted by: mike | Feb 21, 2008 7:36:00 PM

    All right! I always wanted to see a rabid Obama fan, and here you are. LOL!

  9. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Feb 21

    All save Ron Paul are truly clueless concerning economics, Fiat Money and history.

  10. Shane commented on Feb 21

    Spectre,
    I may disagree with you on certain aspects (I think we see the same problem . . . just from different sides of the coin) . . . but you are dead on about Paul.

    What a shame that will all the brilliant people in the US all we’ve got to show is Clinton, Obama, McCain. Ugh . . . what a choice.

    Nope, I’d don’t care if I have to write him in. . . I’ll vote Paul. I’d rather give my vote to someone who stands for their convictions and “waste” it, than vote for a “winner” who is a slimeball politician.

  11. SPECTRE of Deflation commented on Feb 21

    Shane, we had a shot at someone who understands what the Hell is going on, but it a pageant after all.

    I will also be writing in Paul because I’m sick of having to choose the best of a mediocre gaggle of politicos who aren’t fit to polish Paul’s shoes.

  12. Dave M commented on Feb 21

    When someone has one dollar and they get another, they have twice as much money. When someone has two dollars and they get another dollar, they have 50% more money. When people think about money they use how they think about amounts of any kind. If you present numbers the same way people hold the concepts of amounts in their heads….then a log scale tells us a lot about how groups of people (who are all individuals) see progression…..no? Log scales make a lot of sense when presenting these numbers and may give rise to some new insights.

  13. David commented on Feb 21

    Berry,
    Welcome to Obamamania or Obamanation.
    If Obama wins, it’ll be an Obamanation or Obamamania.

    “Give me my robe, put on my crown; I have
    Immortal longings in me.” Shakespeare

  14. wunsacon commented on Feb 21

    >> the stock market, fearing tax increases, goes into a coma.
    >> That is, provided the finance industry doesn’t have the economy fitted for a toe tag first.

    Hey Chief, glad you followed up the first post with the second. It’s not like the next GOP administration would get us out of the s***storm created by the present administration (with support of most in the GOP, save the likes of Lincoln Chaffee and Ron Paul…and Paul O’Neill…and…well, there’s a bunch of them).

    SPECTRE, I love Ron Paul’s views on some items and voted for him in the primary. (For the items that I disagree with him on, I doubt he’d succeed on pushing them thru were he elected. So, I still thought he was my best option.) But, I’ll take Obama. If that means I have to be a “stand-in” defender for his ideas, then I’m up for the occasional jab. (To gripe, email me at Yahoo though.)

    >> so I guess we will get the government we deserve.

    I’ll say that sometimes. But, then I remind myself:
    – “We” should not include “me”.
    – Even the people who *do* get the “government they deserve” (i.e., voted for) don’t “deserve” the government they usually get (incompetent, corrupt). Whether they know it or not, they deserve better.

  15. stockmarketadvantage commented on Feb 21

    Intrade is as good a predictor as any. At least it shows where people are willing to put their money. As it gets more popular and more dollars are involved it will become more efficient.

    The stock market can be a horrible predictor as we all know from the tech-bubble of 1999-2000.

  16. Dave commented on Feb 22

    Barry, I’m not sure if you know &/or care, you were highlighted in a CNN Money article.

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/21/news/economy/inflation/index.htm?section=money_topstories

    “I find it funny that people who didn’t think there was any inflation in the pipeline are now talking about stagflation,” said Barry Ritholtz, CEO director of equity research for Fusion IQ. “This is nothing like the 1970’s, which was a pretty dismal period and not just because of polyester and disco.”

  17. Movie Guy commented on Feb 22

    If the thug Clinton wins, I’m selling my muscle cars and moving to North Korea.

    There won’t be much of a difference, but I might be take over in a few years.

    >>

  18. Grodge commented on Feb 22

    The trade here is for McCain at 35%. He will likely close that gap as the general election campaign begins, up to at least 40 and probably 45% at some point… that’s a 25% gain on your trade. The likelihood of downside is remote.

    When was the last time an election was a runaway of 65% or more?

  19. skateman commented on Feb 22

    No the trade is Hillary. She may not win the primary, but she’ll go from 20 to 40 in a heartbeat when she wins Ohio.

  20. Dave commented on Feb 22

    I think the Democrats should give McCain the same benefit of a doubt that the GOP gave Clinton. The Dem’s should apppoint a partisan special prosecutor, then spend five years and $20 million digging through all his financial transactions back to grade school. Then force all his friends to testify against him under threat of imprisonment, then force him to testify under oath whether he was ever in a room alone with her.

    If the Dem’s do anything less, then they are giving him special treatment. Maybe 35% is just right. Is there a line in Vegas?

  21. RW commented on Feb 22

    Agree the trade with the biggest potential bang for the buck is probably Hillary, she’s oversold and a win in any of the ‘big three’ (Ohio, Texas, and/or Philadelphia) could give some very nice pop in a relatively thinly traded market.

    Needless to say there is no prediction going on with this stuff: It’s just a Keynesian beauty contest that will eventually converge on a real-time outcome whose logic will appear inevitable in retrospect making champs of some and chumps of others …until next time.

    OT but MG I thought love it or leave it was your line? Say it ain’t so, I’m going to miss the incremental additions to the rhetoric of apocalypse if you go, truly (I hear getting online in NK is even tougher than getting porcelain instead of stainless steel for tooth caps).

  22. Grodge commented on Feb 22

    Even if Hillary wins Ohio or one other state, she will not gain much on Obama– she needs to win all three next week, and that is only a remote possibility.

    But, any rise in Hillary primary futures will see a commensurate rise in McCain general election futures because it is envisioned that he can beat Hillary but not Obama.

    The trade is still McCain at 35%.

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