Here’s some interesting data from the friendly (small and thinly traded) markets at Intrade.
Note: I care less about the politics than the group dynamics of these futures markets:
Obama vs Hillary: 80/20
Obama fans should not get too excited though: In October, Intrade gave him a mere 10% shot of winning the Democratic nomination; In December — a mere 60 days ago — it was 20%:
And John McCain is still only a 35% chance to win — but thats up huge from under 5% for most of tlast year (June to December 2007) :
As Dan Gross noted, "these these are less futures markets than immediate-past markets . . ."