Media Appearance: CNBC’s Squawk on the Street (3/5/08)


This morning, I am on CNBC’s  Squawk on the Street, at 9:30 – 9:40am for the opening bell.

The last time I was on with Mark and the lovely Erin was Jan 10 for their "Top Dog" segment — I was the top forecaster in the WSJ for 2007 (you can see the Video of that appearance is here, where I discuss why these contests are meaningless).

My views remain the same as that January 10th show: At the time, I said we thought the first half of the year would be choppy with a negative bias, and its been pretty ugly since. (We had a good trading call on Morning Call Jan 23, but it was just a trade).

Also on January 10th, I mentioned Agriculture, Energy, and Consumer Staples as safe havens. I also said more weakness was in store for the US dollar, and that would be good for Oil and Gold prices, as well as mining stocks (we still like ’em).

I also said stay away from Tech and Financials, and I would reiterate that view today. We have been short AIG and short FNM for some time now, and they look like there is more pain to come.

All of these calls seem to be working in our favor at the moment.

So to reiterate, we remain cautious on US Equities, downright Bearish on overseas bourses, and believe things are likely to get even uglier before this is over. However, we could have a negative sentiment rally AGAIN — like the Jan 23 call. But again, that’s just a trade.

A few things to watch: Precious Metals remain our favorite sectors . . . Silver and Nat Gas are interesting also.

And, the January lows become crucial.


UPDATE:   March, 5, 2008   2:14pm

click for video


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What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. Ross commented on Mar 5

    I start to get really worried when others start talking my book. You’re talking my book, boy. Are you still considered a contrarian? Hope so.

    Loved the market action yesterday. I’ve seen many a panic bottom and yesterday was not one of them. Retest, passhaw!

    They’re going to give you 10 more minutes of fame? I just hope you get a word in edgewise.

  2. michael schumacher commented on Mar 5

    Why is an artificially created event (January lows) given so much credence as a support level when it was very obviously created as a back stop. Only when we “tested” those lows was it ever a support level.

    Support is relative….especially when it is manufactured so readily.

    the problem is the blatant manipulation upwards….look at the volumes from yesterday and today….no comparison…..but that SPX buyer is VERY ACTIVE today.

    GLD came back nicely…..I guess Spain dumped more yesterday…..will look for a confirmation


  3. Lars commented on Mar 5

    Thanks for your insights Barry. We live in interesting times.

  4. michael schumacher commented on Mar 5

    BTW forgot to mention thanks for the newest short reload….


  5. Barry Ritholtz commented on Mar 5

    Well, you start out as contrarian, then the rest of the world catches up — so then its off again to look for other contrary plays . . .

  6. TempusFugit commented on Mar 5

    “the rest of the world catches up” = “it’s priced in”

    From the comments above it would seem that long EEM would be the contrarian play now.

  7. kk commented on Mar 5

    contrary plays metals & ag? Sounds like a lot of mo to me.

  8. Crim Jamer commented on Mar 5

    You looked good Barry…and “smoove” talking. You crack me up because when the camera is not on you (but you can still be seen, i.e., long shot) you kind of make facial gestures (eyebrow raising, etc). I’ve seen it before. It is a sort of lively animation that stands in contrast to Mark Haines who looks like he is going to keel over onto his desk any second.

    I’m sort of surprised they didn’t bump you for Charlie Gasparino. He heard a rumor at the hair salon–Mrs. Tortellini told Mrs. Garbanzo that some bankers are still talking about the possibility that there might or might not be some kind of solution, or non solution, to the Ambak woes.

  9. CB commented on Mar 5

    I still have a lot of trouble with a bullish call on metals and energy at this stage in the game. Am I missing something? Are these trades not crowded with momentum and currency speculators? Precious Metals I get, as they are not raw material inputs to industry, rather, simply a store of value. But for base metals and energy, does demand destruction not trump the FX argument at some point? Or do you believe supply drops at an accelerating ST rate faster than demand?

  10. David commented on Mar 5

    Great blog Barry, keep up the good work.
    The handwriting is on the wall, people have stop buying stuff, the prices will go down.

  11. John commented on Mar 6

    CNBC video sucks – I can never see the video, only hear the audio. I have no problems running anyone else’s video feed, only theirs.

    Yes, my computer us up-to-date: WinXP, AMD Athlon, 512MB vid card, 4GB dual-channel DDR RAM, all the latest Flash/WinPlyr/etc software.


  12. Dan Ruck commented on Mar 7

    Please comment next Monday on why the talking heads on the morning stock show (CNBC? Plain ole’ NBC? I’m not sure) why all they talk about is what stocks investors should be buying. The market can be down 200 points on the Dow, and these tweedle-dees are asking, “What should investors be buying at these levels?” Never a mention of cutting your losses and running like hell. Never a suggestion of selling short. It’s just buy, buy, buy. I guess their advertisers make them do that at gunpoint.

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