Today’s Initial Unemployment Claims surprised quite a few people:
In the week ending March 29, the initial
claims were 407,000, an increase of 38,000 from the previous week’s revised
figure of 369,000. The 4-week moving average was 374,500, an increase of 15,750
from the previous week’s revised average of 358,750.
As you can see by the chart below, this is quite a spike:
Courtesy of Barron’s Econoday
Let’s take another look at new claims, only from a different, and much longer term, perspective.
Dennis Gartman recently used the chart below; He presented new Unemployment Insurance Claims inverted (higher on the chart means less claims). This makes the chart appear as if its of a are a rallying equity.
Note that we never get into recession territory until that Trendline gets broken:
Incidentally, this chart does not include today’s data . . .
What do the assembled masses think? Was today’s Unemployment Claims data an aberration, or proof the start of an increasingly weak labor market, and a contracting economy?
What say ye?