Feldstein: U.S. ‘Sliding’ Into Recession

Great piece by Martin Feldstein in the FT: Misleading growth statistics give false comfort 



Bloomberg:

"Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, a member of the committee that charts the American business cycle, said the U.S. economy is “sliding into a recession.”

"This is a weakening economy,” Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in New York. “If you compare where the economy is now, with where it began at the beginning of the year, just about every indicator is down.”

The comments by Feldstein, a Republican, go farther than anyone in the Bush administration has gone in publicly characterizing the severity of the U.S. slowdown. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in an interview last week said the economy is “still growing, albeit modestly.”

Sources:

Misleading growth statistics give false comfort   
Martin Feldstein
FT, May 7 2008 18:54
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4ae9ee60-1c36-11dd-8bfc-000077b07658.html

Feldstein Says U.S. Economy `Sliding’ Into Recession
Anthony Massucci and Kathleen Hays
Bloomberg, May 6 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLkqZ.fSIOdY&

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What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. Jagmohan Swain commented on May 7

    Yes It’s an weakening economy and that’s not news anymore.Everyone knows that, equity market has already signaled that one quarter back.The real question is what happens from here? Will the job losses pick up momentum or they remain muted.

    The yield curve is steep, as steep as it was around october of 2001, trough for that business cycle.Stimulus checks will have positive impact for two quarters, then yield curve effect should take control.
    -Bullish Voice

  2. Fredex commented on May 7

    Slip slidin’ away…

  3. PAUL commented on May 7

    I’m having problems with the sound on this video …just me?

  4. Francois commented on May 7

    “Treasury Secretary […] said the economy is “still growing, albeit modestly.”

    Reminds me of Churchill on Atlee:

    “The gentleman is modest, and he has every reason to be so.”

  5. yourkillingmelarry commented on May 7

    “I’m having problems with the sound on this video …just me?”

    Nope, Safari doesn’t play well with others, anyone having problems with Windows?

  6. John F. commented on May 7

    Barry,
    Do you have some kind of special subscription to Bloomberg that lets you link to archived video clips? bloomberg.com/news/av/ only keeps the most recent half-dozen or so.

  7. Barry Ritholtz commented on May 7

    A few ways to get at it:

    Bloomberg helped with their recent web restructure:

    If you search for the name of the person on Bloomberg.com — Martin Feldstein — in the right hand column are the related video. Click!

    Prior to this, you had to use Google to track down the videos.

  8. Flic commented on May 7

    CNBC still has guests arguing whether we are in a recession or not…I mean seriously, does this need to be debated? That Brian Westbury clown was just on demanding that there be a moratorium on the word “Recession”. What planet am I on….seriously????

  9. farmera1 commented on May 7

    “Yes It’s an weakening economy and that’s not news anymore.Everyone knows that…”

    Does Bush count as “everyone”, I think so. So until the leader says there is a recession it is all just noise, as in political hot air, just ask some rock solid Republicans.

    But reality is a slippery thing for Bush, yellow cake, immediate threat, mushroom clouds, you’re doing a heck of a job Brownie…
    Need I go on.

    Someday a book will be written on “truthiness”, and Bush’s reading of the economy will have a chapter all of its own.

    But the man does have character, right, afterall he must have had something going for him to get elected or is it a reflection of the electorate.

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