Roach Sees Negative Growth in U.S. for Q2

— Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley’s Asia division, talks with Bloomberg’s Deirdre Bolton about today’s report on U.S. economic growth, the implications of a weaker U.S. dollar and the outlook for economies in Asia and a recovery in the U.S. The Commerce Department said the U.S. economy expanded at a 0.6 percent annual pace in the first quarter, reflecting an increase in inventories as consumers retrenched and companies cut investment. (Source: Bloomberg)



Roach Sees Negative Growth in U.S. for Second Quarter
Shobhana Chandra
Bloomberg, April 30 2008

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  1. Lyse commented on May 5

    The guy is unbelievable. He has been predicting recessions since 2003. MS management tried to get rid of him by shipping him to Asia, but the guy still manages to get on TV to make his recession calls. LOL

  2. Thomas commented on May 5

    There is a rumor about Obama announcing Mayor Bloomberg as his VP. Bloomberg TV has become the most facts distorting network lately (exaggerating Obama hype with constant heavy gloom and doom propaganda) – calling 12% home prices drop as “the worst since great depression” (never mind that home prices dropped by more than 50% during the depression). Now, finding the perma-bears in exile (I guess US perma-bears are embarrassed to show their faces on TV nowadays) and putting them on network.

    As far as Roach, sorry to say it but he is a clown – nobody takes him seriously anymore.

  3. Francois commented on May 5

    “but the guy still manages to get on TV to make his recession calls. LOL”


    So you believe there is no recession?

    If so, I can’t wait to read your arguments about that…provided you have any to put forth.

    Hopefully said arguments won’t be as dumb as the ones Luskin posted about the end of the housing downturn.

  4. Lyse commented on May 5

    Francois: “So you believe there is no recession?”

    It is not me. The data suggests that there is no recession.

    Look at the data around you, start with today’s ISM (services are more than 70% of US economy) is expanding (it is above 50).

    “The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index came in at 52.0 in April versus 49.6 in March.”

  5. wunsacon commented on May 5

    Lyse, the difference depends on which inflation figures you use. If you use the government’s, then we’re not in recession. If you use anyone else’s, then we are.

  6. flubber commented on May 5

    Roach is a perma-bear though, ya gotta admit. He’s been seeing catastrophe in the “global imbalances” from Bretton Woods II/USD-RMB peg for years and years.

    I’m bearish too, and think there will be hell to pay on the USD and interest rates when China discontinues its policy of buying US Treasuries (for whatever reason). But still, ya gotta wonder: if you say a crash is imminent, for five years, when it does finally come, were you right?

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