Your mileage may vary:
"In the average bear market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 30% and sometimes much, much more. The Dow decline of 2000 through 2003 involved a loss of 55%, the bear of ’73-’74 caused a 50% loss and the 1929 market wiped out a full 85% of the Dow’s value."
"We think we’re still quite a ways from a bottom. Over the next year, the Dow could fall 30% to 50% from its October ’07 top. The market could enjoy a few short-lived rallies during that span, like the one we experienced from March through May. But each rally is apt to result in a lower high and a lower low in the market."
-Paul Desmond, Lowry Research, quoted in Barrron’s
Q&A: Paul Desmond of Lowry’s Reports (February 2006)
Part II — Q&A: Paul Desmond of Lowry’s Reports (February 2006)