Uh-Oh: Dangerous Black Swan Chart Formation!

June 2, 2008 8:42pm by

This is a very dangerous formation, as detailed in Nassim Taleb’s Book The Black Swan. Traders should be very careful anytime this chart appears . . .

Click for full version of the exponentially regressed, parabolic, dreaded Black Swan:

Black_swan_spy


via Elite Trader

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What's been said:

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  2. trail commented on Jun 2

    this is funny, very very funny!

  3. MLM commented on Jun 2

    Black swan? Ha! If you had been around charts and technical analysis as long as I have, you would recognize that as a speckled turkey. It has only appeared 7 times in the last 97 years of market history. Always followed by a market correction of at least 32%, along with cranberry sauce and a long weekend.

  4. Eric commented on Jun 2

    Love your technical analysis. I think the only thing not hitting this market right now is swan poop.

  5. Douglas Watts commented on Jun 2

    When people ask who killed the golden goose, I’ll point them to Fusion IQ.

  7. Douglas Watts commented on Jun 2

    Is this a market signal to duck?

    Or a market signal to ducks?

    Only your professional investment advisor knows for sure.

  8. Stav commented on Jun 2

    I believe that is the even more frightening “Black Duck”!

  9. PeterR commented on Jun 2

    Funny Barry IMO that you post a “joke” chart which may actually be the harbinger of things to come, especially given your pessimistic view of things.

    See Buffett’s “Hair Trigger” quote under the first chart on my list at SCC.

    We live in precarious times IMO.

    Cheers,

    Peter

  10. cap commented on Jun 2

    I think the ‘inverted cock and ball pattern’ is a better technical indicator.

  11. Colin commented on Jun 2

    quack. you fooled me.

  12. Mich(^IXIC1881) commented on Jun 2

    Ron U!

    For a minute, I thought the payday was here..

  13. bsneath commented on Jun 2

    Too bad today isn’t April 1st – it would be a classic.

  14. Andrew G commented on Jun 2

    AWESOME. Best post ever.

  16. Kevin commented on Jun 2

    I just spit tea all over my screen LOL!

  17. Andy Tabbo commented on Jun 2

    Well….

    While you may be joking around, an Elliot Wave Technician will tell you that what you’re observing is actually a very ominous pattern.

    The five wave move down that completed in March may have only been an initial first wave down….we’ve recently completed the wave 2 last week….and now we’re descending in what may be a wave 3….

    If we’re in the beginning of Wave 3 down….then hide the swans and every other animal, man, woman and child you can find…because it means there’s some bad news coming…..

    -AT

  18. blackchip commented on Jun 2

    Hi Barry,

    Glad you like my chart. How about proper attribution?

    ~~~

    BR: Yeah, it came via email without attribution — I’ll fix above

  19. Mich(^IXIC1881) commented on Jun 2

    Barry, could you sprinkle some grains at the 126 level, so to encourage a duck down.

    Also, I wish you didn’t say it was a joke..If markets were to crash tomorrow, it wouldn’t have surprised me that, the “formation” made it to the TA books, albeit in the anecdotes section and find its place in the history as one of the greatest market calls, however exotic.

  20. Mich(^IXIC1881) commented on Jun 2

    Thanks blackchip, that is a funny posting… I am sure the credit was an oversight, Barry always references stuff he uses. (yes, he is paying me $10 per shill activity.)

  21. Mike in NOLA commented on Jun 2

    My compliments to whoever created the chart. It was laugh-out-loud funny. Glad my mouth wasn’t full.

  22. Billy G commented on Jun 2

    Scary. Very scary… What would Kunstler say???

  23. Antoine commented on Jun 2

    You Mock! Taleb………shame……..funny…..but shame nevertheless!!…..:)

  24. Winston Munn commented on Jun 2

    Only the terminally pessimistic can look at a chart of “The Goose that Layed the Golden Egg” and see a “Black Swan”…..of course, in Chartrology there are no birds, and it is plain to see in this chart that Taurus is rising from Scorpio’s moon…

  25. Michael Davis commented on Jun 2

    Hilarious!!! …in so many ways. That is good medicine. I feel 5 years younger.

    Thanks!

  26. Rob Dawg commented on Jun 2

    Foie Gras futures soar on the technical indicators. Kudlow remarks after the fact that if it quacks like a duck then it must be the greatest story never told.

  27. Sherman McCoy commented on Jun 2

    OMG! This is really telling… And now I just looked outside at the stars and I saw that the stars formed… MORTGAGE PIG!!! (Lipstick too…)

    We are all going to die.

  28. michael schumacher commented on Jun 2

    funny chart however if it was truly a sign it wouldn’t mean a thing since charts can’t speak to manipulation and futures buying…

    technicals have been largely useless as a gauge of future direction since early last year…they have tried to keep it “real” but it’s just ridiculous the amount of crap news that gets bought over and over.

    BTW check out a former colleague of mine who was “busy” yesterday changing his underwear after this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSsorp6F36s

    Ciao
    MS

  29. Soho_frankie commented on Jun 2

    I just spat beer on my laptop. Other than that I have nothing additional. We laugh because it’s funny……..

  31. Ritchie commented on Jun 3

    Looks more like a goose. As in “our goose is cooked”.

  32. DavidDT commented on Jun 3

    I think the author of this picture deserves clearer credits – if it was me I would be calling copyrights attorney :-)

  33. blinblin commented on Jun 3

    Hilarious, yet so full of insight.

    The only thing missing is the completion of the pattern, which would be a puking or regurgitative action.

    Give it some more time to complete the pattern, eventually ‘the black swan’ call becomes one of the most original and accurate calls of this generation.

  34. Jack commented on Jun 3

    make sure to update that picture when that duck barfs up some red candlesticks in june

  35. Marsu Pilami commented on Jun 3

    For different reasons than Andy Tabbo and MLM above, I second their conclusions. Come the last week of June or first week of July of this year, the U.S. equity market will suffer drastic events reminiscent of October 1929 and 1987. This will be remembered as a great irony that you, Barry, had forewarned the financial world of the coming crash. This black swan joke post makes you a true modern day Cassandra.

  36. Steelduck commented on Jun 3

    For different reasons than Andy Tabbo and MLM above, I second their conclusions. Come the last week of June or first week of July of this year, the U.S. equity market will suffer drastic events reminiscent of October 1929 and 1987. This will be remembered as a great irony that you had forewarned the financial world of the coming crash. This black swan joke post makes you a true modern day Cassandra.

  38. Yves commented on Jun 3

    Love it !!

  39. PhatMary commented on Jun 3

    Looks like a grey goose to me. (cognitive dissonance). Line em up barkeep!

  40. dukeb commented on Jun 3

    blackchip: I returned Taleb’s crock of a book before hitting the 100th page. If your chart had been his book cover, I might have finished reading it. Hilarious!

  41. TC commented on Jun 3

    That’s given the office a case of the yuks!

  42. michael schumacher commented on Jun 3

    I can’t return the May 17th issue of the Economist which is laughable at discussing the banking system. Anyone else able to get through it???

    Ciao
    MS

  43. Roy commented on Jun 3

    Without question, this is the first-half post of the year – lol!

  44. eurocnt commented on Jun 6

    dukeb: same here, I was “Fooled by Barry” into thinking the guy had invented garlic soup or sliced bread or something… Taleb is so arrogant

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