Thursday is monthly NFP data. Consensus is for minus 60k — I won’t be surprised if we see double that, a six figure plus drop — minus 100k.
But that’s not due to ADP data. They have been wildly off over the past 6 months, under-forcasting job losses. (Recall their December 2007 Jobs Surge prediction).
My expectations are more of a call based on the weakening consumer, decreased credit availability, and the ongoing housing collapse. Challenger & Gray layoffs are running +47% Year over year.
The ADP Report is a rough number, but its not nearly as bad as it can get. As the chart below shows, we are not quite at full blown recession levels. Meaning, this can get appreciably worse.
The ADP National Employment Report, June 2008
Wednesday, July 2, 2008, 8:15 A.M. ET