Barron’s Trader Column Quote


I forgot to mention yesterday that some recent comments were picked up in Barron’s The Trader column this week:

"While the bear market could persist (as this week’s cover story warns), the stock market’s worst June in 78 years — and its worst first half since 1970 — have encouraged bargain hunters looking for at least a short-term bounce.

They were egged on by a few signs: Large-cap indexes have fallen decisively to fresh 2008 lows. Energy and material stocks, the last bastion of strength, have begun to crack, and even the high-flying Market Vectors Coal exchange-traded fund (ticker: KOL) has plunged more than 15% over the past three trading days. NYSE volume reached 5.8 billion Tuesday, almost matching the decisive 6.1 billion seen at the mid-March bottom. The crop of NYSE and Nasdaq stocks scraping year lows swelled above 1100 midweek, approaching mid-March’s 1236 tally.

A pronounced spike in investor fear, matching levels seen in January or March, is no guarantee of an enduring rally, as recent selling wiped out the year’s gains. But traders hoping for the kind of climactic purge that marks a stock-market bottom remain disappointed by the almost-but-not-quite-there cues. Option-market sentiment gauges also remain unruffled. "I would have thought the most recent drop might have frightened investors just a tad," notes Barry Ritholtz, director of research at Fusion IQ. "Instead, the bottom callers were out in full force. There is still a whole lot more greed than fear."

Always cool to get in The Trader column . . .


The Bear Arrives — With Bargain Hunters 
BARRON’S, JULY 7, 2008

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  1. Mike in Nola commented on Jul 6

    “Always cool to get in The Trader column …” .” .

    Esp. when you’re right :)

  2. cinefoz commented on Jul 6

    This is just common sense. If Congress takes steps to fix weaknesses in the way investors can put money into oil and other commodities, and starts promptly upon returning from their July 4 holiday, then this is a bargain hunter’s paradise. If they don’t or if the oil ponzies win the day, then this is just the beginning of the end of the world.

    I’m in 25% now, buying in about a week ago, and will go in another 25% when I see Congress seriously take the matter up beyond the hearing stage. The remaining 50% will go in as soon as oil starts to correct.

    Then, after oil corrects, I will ask for explanations from all the lazy intellectuals who claimed we could be in an oil shortage without being in a shortage for anything made from oil. I think a lot of dumbasses with PhDs in Econ should have to wear a T-Shirt that says ‘Lazy Intellectual’ or ‘Oil Dumbass’ or ‘Green to the Point of Stupid’.

  3. john_doe commented on Jul 6

    DUMB MONEY…. and plenty still around…. as long as there is plenty of dumb money in Wall St. the market will have further to go… it always amazes me how technical dummies call bottoms…. as if it is some # written in stone…. Markets are IRRATIONAL…. they go a lot higher when it is considered OVERBOUGHT (notice no one complains about that)…. and they plummet when considered OVERSOLD… everyone keeps saying the market is oversold….I’ll let the DUMB money chase this bounce….

    This is a SNEAK sell off… the VIX is at 22, and the Dow has fallen 1800 pts… the market is falling while everyone is away… No one’s paying attention…
    Just remember… Feces @ a lower price is still SHIT…. Don’t buy shit just because you think it’s cheaper…
    The $$$ Sheik….

  4. Philippe commented on Jul 6

    Difficult to understand all this arithmetic,the equities markets are down 30% year to year in Europe and readers are told that above 20 % downfall it is to be read as a low esteem barometer.
    Should they not linearly trend towards zero? With an amicable (complacent) spirit Equities markets are a reliable, instant, precise and timely reading of discounted broker’s profits ?

  5. brion commented on Jul 6

    “There is still a whole lot more greed than fear.”

    …and a whole lot more “Pump” than either…..

    btw, Is “Pump” more closely related to Greed?…. or Fear?

  6. Charles N. Chuckray commented on Jul 6

    I’ve gotten Barons for decades, and I’ve observed they recently gotten on the positive side of the market. Its subtle, as they always seem to hedge bets in the same issue,but now there is more showcasing of the opportunities and a little less gloom and doom. Too bad, they were always reliable.

  7. philip commented on Jul 6

    people who claim we are ready for a recovery based on technical analysis are delusional. Technical analysis is the equivalent of cheating on your homework (fundamental analysis) and can be used to make a quick buck in short term trading. But when the wheels are coming off, and the people whose homework you are cheating off of also have no clue, you might as well through darts straight up in the air while burning your money. The darts are going to land soon.

  8. wunsacon commented on Jul 6

    >> If Congress takes steps to fix weaknesses in the way investors can put money into oil and other commodities

    Congress is not going to “fix” anything. The “best” they can do is advantage one group of speculators over another.

    Oil and commodity prices will “correct” once people stop consuming them with wild abandon. We’re seeing changes already with oil, in the form of fewer miles driven.

    >> Then, after oil corrects, I will ask for explanations from all the lazy intellectuals who claimed we could be in an oil shortage without being in a shortage for anything made from oil.

    Not sure who on this board you’re challenging but: since the US has not implemented price controls, we don’t have “shortages”.

    As for this Q4-Q2 price spike, blame a declining dollar, a perception that financial assets have been overvalued relative to energy, and the possibility of Bush attacking Iran. There’s no immediate shortage in oil. But, these factors have so far kept crude expensive even while consumers cut back.

    Something will change. But, I know not when. Or even what.

  9. wunsacon commented on Jul 6

    There’s a reality show for roughnecks. I saw the ad for it and stomached one show. Maybe I’ll miss some additional runup from here. But, when I saw that, I took most chips off the energy table.

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