Last Week’s Trading Call

Last week’s trading call, unedited, typos and all, is now posted: Welcome to the Second Half!

Here’s the money quote:

However, given the ongoing decay in the fundamentals — the economy is
actually getting worse, not better — we would look at any bounce as
just that: An oversold counter-trend rally that should be sold into,
not chased upwards.

Not the greatest timed trade, but the overall sentiment is about right . . .

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What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. zackattack commented on Jul 9

    Reading a theory about the lack of fear in the VIX, which is that the selling was actually stock sales from mutual fund redemptions.

    These guys usually have in their charter that they can’t hedge with options, so it didn’t spike the VIX.

    Color me skeptical, but it’s the best thing I’ve heard.

    I am net long here. Index longs, pharma and tobacco.

  2. leftback commented on Jul 9

    That’s right. Market fall is nothing to do with deleveraging or the historic levels of personal and government debt. It’s Obama’s fault.

    Nice call, Barry, only a few days out. As money rotates out of energy funds, we should get a rally here. Of course it is not going to go very far and we will see a lot of churning.

    This morning was interesting, The oil bulls on TV have actually begun to sound a bit desperate. They have had their shot of data and now all they can do to stop crude falling is cry wolf over Iran again. Not sure anyone is going to listen.

    The gasoline inventory build is quite significant and an early sign of demand destruction – once that demand destruction feeds back into crude, the longs are going to panic – then this bubble is well and truly toast.

    The Fed needs to keep rates where they are, so that retired people don’t freeze to death this winter. That should be the top priority, not (insert your favorite insolvent bank), or the oil guys.

    Cheers, T Boone !!

  3. zackattack commented on Jul 9

    I think I mentioned this in another thread, but I heard the big bell ringing yesterday when my 401K plan sponsor added a 130/30 long/short fund as one of our investment options.

  4. michael schumacher commented on Jul 9

    the “real” market call was UBS, Lehman and “douche” bank calling for the biggest gain in the S&P since 1982 (back to 1630)…..all to occur in the “second half recovery”

    Of course no reason just that it will.

    On that note…..

    Ciao
    MS

  5. Portland Refugee commented on Jul 9

    I’m very pleased “douche” has become part of the financial venacular.

  6. HCF commented on Jul 9

    I think we should all stop being so bearish

    Instead, from now on, I’m going to say that I am VERY BULLISH on double-inverse funds. I’m optimistic on strengthening prospects for QID, DXD, FXP, TWM, etc. Doesn’t that sound so much happier, and yet so sophisticated? I’m long-only! I’m not a short-seller or a pessimist! There’s always a bull market somewhere, as they said and I think I found it. Up up and away!

    =)

  7. zackattack commented on Jul 9

    I like that, HCF.

    Then, to juice the Dow, we can simply add SKF.

  8. Mike in NoLA commented on Jul 9

    Sounds good to me, HCF. And I could say it truthfully.

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