The Bear is Back, Part II

Yesterday’s Bear is Back table was re-envisioned and reformatted as a chart by Jake:


via Jake

I don’t really buy breaking the 2000 Crash into 2 pieces, but that’s how it was done in the table . . .

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What's been said:

Discussions found on the web:
  1. Theinvestingspeculator commented on Jul 6

    I here the bull saying that the bear market is almost over. I think it is going to be one of the longer bears. Eli broad says it is the worst since WWII

  2. Mike in NoLA commented on Jul 6

    Pardon my intellectual laziness, but I’m too busy today to look hard. How was the beginning of the bear market determines in the table that was published?


    <>BR: We’re too intellectually lazy to look that up . . .

  3. Dave commented on Jul 6

    I don’t buy the before and after distinction either. Until you can quantify the beginning and the end of denial, migration, and panic stages, who is to really know if/which bubble we are busy correcting right now? If the stock market does any macro discounting at all, and I believe it does, this has to be taken into account. Counting day is like hoping it won’t rain on your barbeque.

  4. VJ commented on Jul 6

    I don’t really buy breaking the 2000 Crash…

    What “2000 crash” ?

    * DJIA CLOSE JAN 03RD, 2000: 11,357.51

    * DJIA CLOSE JAN 14TH, 2000: 11,722.98

    * DJIA CLOSE DEC 29TH, 2000: 10,786.85


    BR: I’m not sure if you are joking . . .

  5. Troy commented on Jul 6


  6. VA commented on Jul 6

    Scary… it always takes longer to recover from a bear than it takes for it to form.

  7. Troy commented on Jul 6

    it always takes longer to recover from a bear than it takes for it to form

    Actually I think the chart is just confusing, with the 2nd bar being the total length of the bear market.

  8. Jay commented on Jul 6

    When is the bear over? Do you have to wait for a new high or is it over when the market starts back up from the lows?

  9. Scott commented on Jul 7

    This guy is surprisingly innumerate, assuming that the average is what we will automatically get:

    More detail on bear markets from this past weekend’s Barron’s. Quoting Bespoke Investment Group, Barron’s agrees with our note last week that the average bear market sees a decline of about 30%. Further, when the market had declined the required 20% to be declared a bear, the downturn was, on average, 74% complete in terms of length. If that is so, we have 118 days to run and another 10% on the downside.

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