Seiders seems to be rather reasonable, he is looking for modest starts tomorrow.
Note that he actually is looking for starts to stay low to help eliminate supply — compare his level of honesty and suitable caution versus NAR . . .
Excerpt from Bloomberg:
Confidence among U.S. homebuilders was unchanged in August at a record low, signaling there is no relief in sight from the worst housing slump in a quarter century.
The National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo sentiment index held at 16 for a second month, the Washington- based group said today. Readings under 50 mean most respondents view conditions as poor.
Builders are delaying projects as sales drop, foreclosures throw more houses on the market and prices tumble. Job losses, stricter lending rules and growing buyer pessimism indicate builders will need to cut prices further to stimulate demand.
The NAHB index of buyer traffic was unchanged at a record low of 12 for a second month. The measure represents the number of prospective buyers visiting properties.
The increase in two of the three components "may be an indication that we are nearing the bottom of the long downswing in new-home sales,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders in a statement. "Our current forecast shows stabilization of sales during the second half of this year, followed by solid recovery in 2009 and beyond.”
Sentiment improved in two of four regions. It rose to 16 from 14 in the Northeast, and to 14 from 10 in the Midwest. The index was unchanged at 20 in the South and fell to 11 from 14 in the West.
Other housing measures continue to show weakness. Total single-family home sales in June were down 37 percent from a peak reached in July 2005, the biggest drop since 1982. Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 15.8 percent in May from a year earlier, the biggest decline since records began seven years ago.
US Builder Confidence Index Unchanged at Record Low
Bloomberg Aug. 18 2008