Last week, we looked at the track record of Intrade regarding the VP nominees.
Since then, its been an eventful few days.
The Intrade prediction market has opened trading on whether "Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election." (Note: I am more concerned with the futures market than I am with the politics. Please keep this focused).
Current odds: 14.3%
What do you think the odds are?
UPDATE: Spetember 2, 2008 8:52pm
Bloomberg article: McCain More Likely to Drop Palin, Bookmakers Say
The smart money thinks there’s a better chance today than yesterday that John McCain will dump Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate.
Before the Republican senator’s presidential campaign disclosed the pregnancy of Palin’s 17-year-old daughter, bookmakers in Britain and Ireland were offering 20-1 odds or higher on a bet that she would be forced off the ticket, meaning a 1 pound ($1.78) bet would pay 20 pounds. Now that same bet will pay no more than 8 pounds.
"While it is rare that a VP candidate gets dropped, it’s not completely impossible,” said Ken Robertson, political betting analyst at Paddy Power Plc, a Dublin-based gambling company. “Lots of our punters are betting `Shocking’ Sarah’s days are numbered,” he added, using a nickname he came up with for the first-term Alaska governor.
The odds, based on wagers made online with Paddy Power and William Hill Plc and in their betting shops, also suggest that McCain is less likely to win the White House because of his vice-presidential running-mate choice, announced Aug. 29. Both gambling houses, along with rival Ladbrokes Plc, place Democrat Barack Obama, 47, as the favorite to triumph in the contest.