Intrade Opens VP Palin Withdrawal Contract

Last week, we looked at the track record of Intrade regarding the VP nominees.

Since then, its been an eventful few days.

The Intrade prediction market has opened trading on whether "Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election." (Note: I am more concerned with the futures market than I am with the politics. Please keep this focused).

Current odds:  14.3%


What do you think the odds are?

UPDATE: Spetember 2, 2008 8:52pm

Bloomberg article: McCain More Likely to Drop Palin, Bookmakers Say

The smart money thinks there’s a better chance today than yesterday that John McCain will dump Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate.

Before the Republican senator’s presidential campaign disclosed the pregnancy of Palin’s 17-year-old daughter, bookmakers in Britain and Ireland were offering 20-1 odds or higher on a bet that she would be forced off the ticket, meaning a 1 pound ($1.78) bet would pay 20 pounds. Now that same bet will pay no more than 8 pounds.

"While it is rare that a VP candidate gets dropped, it’s not completely impossible,” said Ken Robertson, political betting analyst at Paddy Power Plc, a Dublin-based gambling company. “Lots of our punters are betting `Shocking’ Sarah’s days are numbered,” he added, using a nickname he came up with for the first-term Alaska governor.

The odds, based on wagers made online with Paddy Power and William Hill Plc and in their betting shops, also suggest that McCain is less likely to win the White House because of his vice-presidential running-mate choice, announced Aug. 29. Both gambling houses, along with rival Ladbrokes Plc, place Democrat Barack Obama, 47, as the favorite to triumph in the contest.

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Discussions found on the web:
  1. Steve Barry commented on Sep 2

    My conclusion from this nominee – McCain wants to lose the election. Who picks a VP that they only met once? One that has absolutely no clue about foreign policy, that only recently obtained a passport? McCain knows how bad the economy will be and wants no part of being president.

  2. Kirk commented on Sep 2


    I am a big fan of your market musings. I just have to wonder who slipped you the libby micky.

    Palin withdrawal contract? Sounds a bit bitter if you ask me (don’t respond with an weak explanation that you are “just reporting it is in existence”…etc.).

    McCain pulled a rabbit out of his hat and the LEFT is BLOWN AWAY. Evidence of that fact? You AND MOST EVERYBODY ELSE are typing the name PALIN.

    Why don’t you highlight the fact that six short weeks ago Obama was at 68 and McCain at 30. Now Obama (post CONVENTION bump) is at 60 with McCain at 40?

    BR: I have posted EXTENSIVELY on the fallibility of markets in general, and prediction markets specifically. (I’ve been frequently quoted on the subject). This is a natural subject for me to discuss.

    Politics is NOT my beat, but markets certainly are.

    But since YOU brought up the polls, it was a statistical dead heat 10 days ago, and now its a 50-42% race. (Don’t even try to cherry pick data points with me, son).

  3. wnsrfr commented on Sep 2

    Palin is a fake candidate; a distraction announced the day after Obama’s historic speech.

    She is there to create a mountain of talking points, only to be “harassed” by the democrats into withdrawing so that a real VP can be nominated.

    However, McCain will then have to find someone else willing to say “yes”!

  4. leftback commented on Sep 2

    Withdrawal? Already?
    Wouldn’t that be premature?
    The press hasn’t had nearly enough fun yet.

  5. Jeff M. commented on Sep 2

    @Kirk: This election is obviously a referendum on the intelligence of the American voter. With your comments, you’re clearly not passing that test…….

    At no time was Obama at “68” and McCain “38” and isn’t at “60”/”40″ now. You’re entitled to your own opinions but not your own facts.

    The reason that Dem voters are horrified by this pick is that we’re rightfully afraid of what will become of this country if McCain croaks and this woman becomes president. I would be fine with McCain winning if he had chosen someone (even Mitt) who could step in and do a decent job with national security and foreign policy in the event that McCain passes. This isn’t a superficial sporting event but arguably the most important election of our lifetimes. This pick just makes a mockery of our country and puts us in peril if she somehow slides into the presidency spot.

  6. PHB commented on Sep 2

    Whew, these comments read like a political blog site. Amazing how people take politics so personal.

    From a pure trade point-of-view, the Palin withdrawal trade on Intrade is a little strong at 14.3% IMHO. Should be fun to watch it trade through the rest of the week. I suspect she is long for the campaign.

    Careful out there mixing personal feelings with a trade, it’ll get you every time.

    Seacrest out.

  7. JustinTheSkeptic commented on Sep 2

    Now, to think that McCain’s people did not already have this knowledge of the daughters discression is ludicrous. Let’s face it, the pro-life, pro-choice camps are a miniscule amount of votes, most the votes lay inbetween. Hence, real-life dictates real choices. I find this a plus for Palin and the Republicans.

  8. SteveC commented on Sep 2

    As much as I hate to talk politics, I’m not surprised. Come on.. a runner up beauty queen, ex-sports reporter, ex-mayor of a little town in Alaska who may have never been outside the US, as 2nd in command to a very old President? You can’t make stuff like that wait you can….The comedy “Legally Blonde” comes to mind.

  9. km4 commented on Sep 2

    There is so much wrong with Palin ( the gift that keeps on giving to the Dems ) but this one took the cake.

    Palin: US Soldiers on a Task from God

    McCain has jumped the shark !

    This assclown will do anything ( including selling out America ) to try and get elected.

    BTW, the Muslim world is also reading closely so you think the US has economic problems now….wait until Mideast oil nations stop buying America’s treasury notes and see the USA go quickly into a depression.

    Palin is done because American big monied interests trump the American evangelical nutjobs.

    And stick a fork in McCain – he’s also done.

  10. Matthew commented on Sep 2

    Could be interesting if McCain introduces his real VP pick at the Republican Convention. Palin herself could withdraw herself on the basis that the media has has completely invaded her personal life to the point of insanity. I’m sorry, but the media seemed to be a little to much… the last few days… espically CNN.

    Plus, McCain could just be using this Palin-Pick to highlight why it’s important that the person becoming President has experience to lead. Imagine a statement from the old guy… “American wake-up, I might be old… but the President of the United States is required on Day One to be ready to lead, and to make key decisions about the economy, America’s security and the direction in which America should go.”

  11. Phil Gramm commented on Sep 2

    Phil Gramm Says McCain Supporters Aren’t `Whiners’:

    — Phil Gramm excluded John McCain supporters from his description of Americans as “a nation of whiners,” the characterization that forced his exit from the Republican presidential candidate’s campaign in July.

    “If you’re sitting here today, you’re not economically illiterate and you’re not a whiner, so I’m not worried about who you’re going to vote for,” the former Texas senator told attendees at a Financial Services Roundtable event in Minneapolis on the sidelines of the Republican National Convention.

    Gramm, 66, a vice chairman of UBS Securities LLC, stepped down as a co-chairman of the McCain campaign in July after telling the Washington Times that the U.S. is a “nation of whiners” facing a “mental recession.”

    In reaction to today’s comments, Democratic nominee Barack Obama’s campaign spokesman Tommy Vietor said, “The man who wrote John McCain’s economic plan further insulted struggling Americans by suggesting that if they are not attending the Republican Convention, they are not only whiners, but economically illiterate.”

    Many of those who attended the event came from the financial community, including representatives of Minneapolis-based U.S. Bancorp and the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America.

    Obama’s Response

    Obama, in his nomination acceptance speech in Denver last week, referred to Gramm’s July remarks, and pointed to “proud auto workers” in Michigan and military families shouldering the burden of family members deployed to war zones overseas.

    “These are not whiners,” Obama said. “They work hard and give back and keep going without complaint.”

    After Gramm’s July comments, McCain said, “Phil Gramm does not speak for me. I speak for me, so I strongly disagree.” People are not whining, he said, adding that “America is in great difficulty.”

    At today’s event, Gramm also defended McCain’s selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his vice presidential running mate.

    “We went through a process of vetting all possible candidates,” narrowing it down to three before choosing Palin, he said.

    When asked later whether he still has a role in the campaign, Gramm said, “I’m a supporter.”

  12. JWC commented on Sep 2

    My guess is that he will keep her on the ticket. She is his “soulmate” you know, and he won’t want to admit he might have made a mistake.

    Agree, she is getting a lot of attention and ink. However, it is scary as hell to think of her one heartbeat away from the presidency. What was he thinking?

  13. pbriggsiam commented on Sep 2

    Ignore the deadender Rethuglican McSame supporters. Theirs is a world of selfish, self-imposed ignorance that they would like to foist 4 more years upon the rest of us.

    I hold up my hand these fine fellows and ask them to ‘read between the lines’ (or fingers as it were).

  14. Mike J commented on Sep 2

    I called this Harriet Miers II a day after I first heard it. Pick some unknown-history under-the-radar somebody and when their history becomes public knowledge, they end up running with tail between their legs.

    If I wasn’t all in short BAC right now, I’d buy the InTrade contract.

  15. winslow commented on Sep 2

    What happened to the “family values” Republicans adhere to. Is out-of-wedlock sex and child-birth now being condoned.

  16. Yves commented on Sep 2

    Palin will get the axe and the real hat trick will be Condi….you watch.

  17. carwinrpc commented on Sep 2

    I think we ought to put aside all the political stuff for just a moment and look at the choice as a reflection of how McCain works through decisions. If the choice of Palin as Vice President is representative, it doesn’t say much.

    Listen, NO ONE with half a brain and the ability to test reality can think this is a good choice! I agree that much of the media coverage has focussed on irrelevancies–her daughter, her husband’s DUI(there are millions of folks out there who either HAVE DUI’s or in an honest moment will tell you they would if they had just been stopped that ONE time) none of that really matters in the long run.

    What makes her an abysmal pick is she very likely knows NOTHING about the Federal Government and how it runs. If she did, would she utter such a complacently stupid comment about someone please telling her “what a Vice President does all day?” That comment alone should disqualify her. When you add it to the lies about how she told Congress she didn’t want the money for the “bridge to nowhere”, giving the people of Alaska an increased oil dividend because the price of oil went up(it’s dishonest because she glides over the fact that she and the legislature imposed a windfall profits tax on the oil companies–I wonder how likely that information is to get into a McCain ad.

    I don’t know if this is a sign the McCain has lost a bit of mental acuity, but when you compare Palin to the wealth of candidates he might have picked from, you have to wonder.

  18. BobC commented on Sep 2

    “Check out this pic of Palin. I don’t know if its photoshopped but it is sure funny.

    Oh my. The Republicans better hope that’s photo shopped. At least it’s safe for work but it won’t go over too well.

  19. txchick57 commented on Sep 2

    I’d sell as many of those as I could find bids for.

    You Obama nuts have no idea how this pick is resonating among the “bitter Americans who cling to guns and religion” crowd. They’re just suiting up now to take the field.

    And there are a lot more of them than you.

    Sold to you!

  20. geckoman commented on Sep 2

    Man, I hate politics. It’s all about the “gotcha” moment for both sides anyways.

    Liberals get there talking points from the Huffpo and dailykos blog shrill crew that just love to make stuff up to rally their minions. Facts and truth be damned!

    The right listens to Limbaugh and Ingram and gets indoctrined that the other side is so out of touch.

    It’s all nonsense. I wonder when Americans will get the hint that the gov’t is doing this stuff on purpose to keep us from talking about the real issues and real change.

    We’re all idiots for the getting involved in the stupid political food fights.

    Face facts that there is only a small difference between these two candidates and in the end whoever gets elected won’t really be working for any of us anyway.

    This post won’t change a thing cause humans are too stupid to see the truth.

  21. geckoman commented on Sep 2

    Man, I hate politics. It’s all about the “gotcha” moment for both sides anyways.

    Liberals get there talking points from the Huffpo and dailykos blog shrill crew that just love to make stuff up to rally their minions. Facts and truth be damned!

    The right listens to Limbaugh and Ingram and gets indoctrined that the other side is so out of touch.

    It’s all nonsense. I wonder when Americans will get the hint that the gov’t is doing this stuff on purpose to keep us from talking about the real issues and real change.

    We’re all idiots for the getting involved in the stupid political food fights.

    Face facts that there is only a small difference between these two candidates and in the end whoever gets elected won’t really be working for any of us anyway.

    This post won’t change a thing cause humans are too stupid to see the truth.

  22. Jeff M. commented on Sep 2

    @txchick57: My opinion has nothing to do with being an “Obama nut” (although I clearly favor him to the alternative for obvious reason) but if you’re right, this ignorant, moronic nation deserves everything it gets.

    I’m willing to bet that you’re wrong though – big numbers of angry voters will favor O this year. That’s the real story that traditional polling cannot measure.

  23. kyle commented on Sep 2

    does the name Harriet Myers ring a bell?

  24. larster commented on Sep 2

    I’m surprised that no commenter brings up the fact that she has limited, if any, financial experience during the worst financial crisis in this country, since the depression. Coupled w/ the foreign policy weakness, her only strength seems to be in her ffamilies ability to create more R’s. Seriously tho, I wonder what the reaction of the foreign govs, corporations, and sov entities would be should these two economic adolescents be elected.

    I think she will withdaw after the convention.

  25. txchick57 commented on Sep 2

    Geckoman: Time to spend a little time off the fringes (coasts) and with the real people. They’re the ones who vote.

    And if Obama does win, I hope you’re a short seller cause that will be the game for the foreseeable future.

    Over and out.

  26. tranchefoot commented on Sep 2


    if it’s really true she supported the secession of alaska from the union, she won’t last long.

  27. km4 commented on Sep 2

    McCain campaign looking idiotic and totally unprepared for factual and reasonable questioning about Palin as VP that they should have known was coming i.e. even the softballs from the MSM.

    If they aren’t ready for this then how can McCain rationally justify his position as a leader and any decision he makes as President of the United States ?

    3 words – deluded, desperate, and pathetic !

  28. Jeff M. commented on Sep 2

    @txchick57: Get those GOP talking points ready because this market’s going down with or without Obama (or Jesus Christ himself running this nation) and it isn’t his or McCain’s fault. Not all people who live off the coasts (the “fringes”, as you put it) are as ignorant as you make them out to be. I live smack dab in the middle of the country myself.

    @larster: Good point re: her financial services experience/background (or lack thereof). Given that McCain already admitted that “the economy is not his strong suit”, this is troubling.

  29. txchick57 commented on Sep 2

    Jeff: Works for me, I am a short oriented trader.

    And as for the other comment, I wasn’t aware she was nominated to be the Treasury Secretary or head of the Federal Reserve. Must have missed that PR.

    And thirdly, you guys are vastly underestimating the effect of this nomination on female voters. Not the harpies who write in the NYT or HuffPo, but real women who have real lives.

    And really, I’m just answering Barry’s question. I’d take the short trade at 14.3 bid with the information that is out there right now.

  30. be nice to people commented on Sep 2

    Odds Palin withdrawing: very low

    Odds McCain 2008 = Goldwater 1964 in a conservative rout by Dems: very high!

    The religious right would rather lose big time than be co-opted by the middle especially when John Paul Stevens is 80/90-something years old.


  31. km4 commented on Sep 2

    The WaPo is now reporting that Sarah Palin and her husband were part owners of a business that was shut down by the state for noncompliance with state regulations:

    State records show the business ran into trouble with Alaska’s division of corporations business and professional licensing after Palin became governor of the state in 2006.

    A Feb. 11, 2007 letter to the governor’s business partner advises that the car wash had “not filed its biennial report and/or paid its biennial fees,” which were more than a year overdue.

    The warning letter was written on state letterhead, which carried Palin’s name at the top, next to the state seal.

    On April 3, 2007, the state went further and issued a “certificate of involuntary dissolution” because of the car wash’s failure to file its report and pay state licensing fees.

    How can this woman be trusted to be VP of the United States if she can’t even run a carwash in Anchorage ?

  32. Pacific commented on Sep 2

    Romney would have been a very tough VP choice for OBAMA to deal with and instead McCain picks the Alaskan Britney Spears??

  33. Bleebonic commented on Sep 2

    The Big Picture is a must read for me everyday and I normally enjoy reading the various comments. Many of the posts to this topic though seem to be a bit knee-jerk and ignorant. My concerns are with Obama and the differential treatment he is getting from the media. He can’t run on experience so he is touting his superior judgement. Was it good judgement to sit in church for the past twenty years listening to racist rants and to say nothing? What about his decision to accept money from a convicted felon to purchase a home, a decision he admits was wrong. What does that say about his judgement? Unlike McCain, almost no person of importance has given him a personal reference because so few have any history with him and those that do are either convicted felons or former terrorists. What did he do to reform the cesspool of Chicago politics? Nothing! He makes the point that McCain voted with the Republicans over 90% of the time yet he voted over 97% of the time with the Democrats. His new ad makes a huge deal of McCain’s seven houses and repeats the lie from his Denver speech that McCain thinks that everyone earning less than 5 million a year is middle class. What a crock of crap and he is not being called on it. Logic has been thrown out the window and the red meat is luring the jackals. Enjoy the meal boys, but it will be a hard one to digest.


    BR Do the names Paul Volcker or Warren Buffett mean anything?

  34. George commented on Sep 2

    I think the odds are at 50/50 right now.

  35. Dr. Waterbury commented on Sep 2

    Most of the comments above are so juvenile and below the usual intellectual level of this blog that I continue to dispair over the state of political discourse in this pitifully ignorant country.

  36. nmewn commented on Sep 2

    Palin has done what Mac failed to do by himself…she has more executive experience than BOTH candidates on the other side…COMBINED.

    A smart confident woman who doesn’t take any crap from either party (and has proved it unlike the democrat change artists)is just what the country needs.

    Did I mention she’s HOT???

  37. km4 commented on Sep 2

    Well done, John McCain. You’ve shown possibly even worse judgment than George W. Bush, which until now was almost an impossibly high bar to meet.

    McCain has jumped the shark and comes across as an desperate assclown that will do anything ( including selling out America ) to try and get elected.

    Palin is done.
    Stick a fork in McCain because he’s also done.
    And the joke of a party called the GOP is going down the tubes.

  38. kc commented on Sep 2

    You know you are pushing partisan talking points. No need to pretend. I see this same wink wink propagation of Palin trashing materials at other blogs. It really shows how weak and insecure the Democratic Party is in its “can’t lose” year. The party should have gone with Hillary, a much stronger candidate, and leave the personal attacks to the Republicans.

  39. be nice to people commented on Sep 2

    ***Did I mention she’s HOT??? ***

    bleh. She’s hot only when compared to my right hand.

    Damn you irony! I violated the spirit of my own screenname.

  40. km4 commented on Sep 2

    I love the smell of GOP desperation ;)

  41. Jeff Skilling commented on Sep 2

    Hey, at least Palin hasn’t shot anyone in the face yet…except for a moose or two.

  42. Automated Robot commented on Sep 2

    Chance of withdrawal is near zero.As long as she is veep McCain likely wins the election.If she goes the election is over and Obama wins.
    No matter what comes up she is on the ticket.
    This is McCain’s last shot and he wants to win…bad.

  43. wally commented on Sep 2

    Ater the first polling results come in, she will withdraw.
    Good thing, too. This hypocrisy that your family is your private off-limits business but other people’s private lives are not has gone way too far.

  44. bsneath commented on Sep 2

    Given the choice between old time Republicans who simply want to preserve old money wealth and liberals who will basically ruin the economy in the name of social engineering and earth worship, I for one wouldn’t mind seeing a tough as nuts hockey Mom in the VP slot and for that matter as President. She will kick some ass.

  45. equtz commented on Sep 2

    Why’s Larry focusing on politics tonight? I thought he’d be focuing on how ebulient the markets were today…

  46. km4 commented on Sep 2

    bsneath you need to get educated on definition of a Liberal.

    But if by a “Liberal” they mean someone who looks ahead and not behind, someone who welcomes new ideas without rigid reactions, someone who cares about the welfare of the people — their health, their housing, their schools, their jobs, their civil rights, and their civil liberties — someone who believes we can break through the stalemate and suspicions that grip us in our policies abroad, if that is what they mean by a “Liberal,” then I’m proud to say I’m a “Liberal.”

  47. Jeff M. commented on Sep 2

    @Dr. Waterbury: I’m with you. Very depressing indeed.

  48. Nancy Reagan commented on Sep 2

    If the boyfriend had withdrawn earlier we wouldn’t be having this discussion……

    JUST SAY NO to any additional Palin blogging.

  49. Mel commented on Sep 2

    She sounds a lot like the former Governor of Texas–limited foreign affairs acumen–believes god guides them. If you liked the last 8 years, you gotta love this choice. She’ll drop out only if the polls show she was a mistake–it’s all politics.

  50. Greg0658 commented on Sep 2

    I was wow’d by the appeal to the American idiot to clinch … Women 1st, Gun Rights, Pro-Life, Pot-Heads Unite, Go Big-Oil but be Environment Equal.

    She will be put to pasture in Washington and replaced up in Alaska with a less combative statesman
    the Washington System is letting McCain cook his own goose. The convention is just getting started. Here is a Repub CEO combination fitting for America – Romney & Huckabee. Thats 42% vs. 46% delegates.

    I won’t vote for that pro business ticket tho. It’s Obama & Biden for this whinner. Just shy of saying no more, I’ve pulled the paperpushers up with my boots and gloves. Trickledown – trickled out of America.

  51. David commented on Sep 2

    Just for kicks can someone please explain the experience Barack Obama has for POTUS??

    I can understand why people question the Palin pick, but why is NO ONE questoning Baracks experience and ability.

    My personal opinion is BO has VERY LITTLE.

    Of course you could point to his one executive venture(CAC) widely considered an abject failure to the tune of $100 million.

  52. Pat G. commented on Sep 2

    It wouldn’t matter. The Republicans have screwed the pooch so many times that even they can’t get re-elected. In addition historically; the economy does better & the income gap narrows under a Democrat.

  53. Greg0658 commented on Sep 2

    ps – I forgot to mention the President is only Commander in Chief of the Military, a puppet to all other aspects. Sarah is an unbelievable 2nd CinC.

  54. km4 commented on Sep 2

    John McCain, like all contemporary conservative Republican officials, has nothing but contempt for the American people. And if you didn’t believe that before, his choice of vice presidential running mate should erase any doubt.

  55. Jeff M. commented on Sep 2

    @David: For “kicks”, here goes:

    Obama has I believe 8 years in the IL state senate, 3 years in the country’s Senate, graduated at the top of his class in Columbia undergrad and Harvard Law, specialized in studying constitutional law at Harvard, was president of the Harvard Law Review, taught constitutional law (remember the constitution) at the University of Chicago, and has been roundly praised by many of his professors as “one of the most brilliant students” they’ve ever had. He’s also run a brilliant campaign for the last nearly 2 years (which takes A LOT of leadership) and with over 18 million votes in a brutal, bruising primary vanquished the most powerful political couple in our country in the process. He’s also a brilliant speaker who INSPIRES people to act and do things they might not normally do under a less inspiring “leader”. That is the real definition of a “leader”.

    Why do we hate smart people in this country? Are we just a country of morons? I think we are if we elect these two to office in November.

  56. tw commented on Sep 2

    The Palin pick has redefined the race, and now BO is running against her and not McCain. Any questions about her leadership ability, foreign policy experience, experience in general are now, and will continue to be measured against Obama. This will be a devastating exercise for a man running on “judgement” and “change”.

    As for the first test: the daughters pregnancy, I think you might be surprised on how people view this as a real personification of the difficulty raising young people in a highly sexualized moral vacuum that prevades culture today. It’s a tough situation, that a good many people can relate to and identify with. She is in for the long haul. If you want to see someone dropped, your bets should be on Biden. With a reputation for a set of loose lips, and an excellent practitioner of the fine art of “copying”, he is now a huge liability to the Obama campaign.

    Remember folks, its all those other potential candidates that have presided over this massive financial debacle we are going through right now. Perhaps its time for a fresh face and some new thinking.

    Considering the number of people who have trashed President Bush, a man who came to office with more overall experience than anyone in this race, it seems a bit trite to trash her because one day she might have to lead the country. Ironic indeed.


  57. Rich Shinnick commented on Sep 2

    I don’t know, I was kind of hoping to hear her in the debate with old Washington Joe before passing judgment, but, it looks like most posters here have already made up their minds on this lady.

    Her foreign affairs experience is pretty much a “push” with Obama and I (for one) do not think her daughter’s pregnancy is relevant.

    I just want to hear what the lady has to say and how she says it……….

  58. bozo commented on Sep 2

    No, there will be no withdrawal of candidacy
    1) McCain holds a mean grudge, and seldom prefers to admit losing
    2) There is an implicit assumption that an other candidate for VP ballot spot would not have any problems of their own
    3) This is a relatively minor issue when it comes to the direction of America over the next 4 years. Let people wear themselves out early, and then try to spin it with the hope of a draw. In the end, no one is going to vote against someone because their daughter had 2 babies before age 18.

    I’m sure McCain and crew are aware of recent polling, and could even have been surprised by some post-announcement revelations regarding Palin (the best way to get rid of a bad boss is to recommend them for promotion).

    He would drop her from the ballot instantly if he knew that it gave him a better chance of winning the election — I don’t think he has any better alternatives.

    Signed, a lefty foreigner

  59. bdg123 commented on Sep 2

    How fun is this? The global economy is cratering and people are focused on the fact that this lady’s husband got a DWI twenty years ago and her daughter got pregnant. Welcome to the real world. I find it refreshing to have candidates that are hated by their own party elites, have no experience and are representative of real people. How much worse could Washington be if we elected an all new Congress and President with zero experience in politics? My God, how refreshing that would be.

    It is an elitist attitude that someone needs experience to be a politician. Were experience the litmus test, the most qualified person on earth is Dick Cheney. How’s that working for you?

    The media elite will tear Palin down and do so at their own risk. At the risk of jeopardizing their chosen one – their overwhelmingly favorite candidate.

    Now, the prior Palin “stuff” may be a problem but having a pregnant daughter and a husband with a DWI simply tells me she lives in an unvarnished real world and has taken her lumps like the rest of us.

  60. km4 commented on Sep 2

    Quick summary of 8 years of Bushco and 4 more with McSame
    1. tax cuts for upper 1% of Americans
    2. tax cuts for corporate America
    3. crony capitalism at its finest
    4. rapidly deteriorating infrastructure in America
    5. rapidly shrinking middle class
    6. you, your children, and grandchildren paying for 8 yrs of Bush/Cheney looting of US treasury for decades.

  61. km4 commented on Sep 2 does a better job of vetting than McCain. And they really do help you find your soulmate.

  62. Mark E Hoffer commented on Sep 2

    It has been, truly, amazing, to watch this unfold.

    That said, the quote: 14.3 +11.3 has “Hit Me.”(the bid) written all over it.

    current spread now 12.0/14.8 (nice chop)

    past that, talk about “Ink Blot” tests…

    further, the sad thing is that this: “Man, I hate politics. It’s all about the “gotcha” moment for both sides anyways.

    Liberals get there talking points from the Huffpo and dailykos blog shrill crew that just love to make stuff up to rally their minions. Facts and truth be damned!

    The right listens to Limbaugh and Ingram and gets indoctrined that the other side is so out of touch.

    It’s all nonsense. I wonder when Americans will get the hint that the gov’t is doing this stuff on purpose to keep us from talking about the real issues and real change.

    We’re all idiots for the getting involved in the stupid political food fights.

    Face facts that there is only a small difference between these two candidates and in the end whoever gets elected won’t really be working for any of us anyway.

    This post won’t change a thing cause (far too many, ed.) humans are too stupid to see the truth.

    Posted by: geckoman | Sep 2, 2008 5:39:56 PM

    won’t get the second thought it deserves..

  63. Portland Refugee commented on Sep 2

    If there is anything neocons are not interested in doing, it’s “Pulling Out”.

  64. loyal reader commented on Sep 2

    As this site drifts into petty politics, I bid adieu.

  65. loyal reader commented on Sep 2

    As this site drifts into petty politics, I bid adieu.

  66. Donny commented on Sep 2

    I cannot believe that there are so many people that are willing to vote against their own interest.

    Let me just say this, if Obama does win, he and a left of center congress will screw this country. Just like Jimmy Carter and his compadres did 30 years ago.

    Don’t believe me — watch and learn.

  67. MRegan commented on Sep 2

    The intrade numbers are an interesting topic for chatter but I suspect their predictive powers offer little. Regarding Palin as a VP pick by McCain, if one considers McCain’s preferred game of chance, craps, then things come into focus. It seems to me at first blush a wildly risky choice, given the plague of corruption among Republicans in Alaska. Politicians in general, and Republicans in particular, should be glad that most Americans are unwillingly to dedicate much time and effort to informing themselves. I doubt Palin will withdraw. Then again, McCain has hired the b^stard (Tucker Eskew) who smeared him and his family in the 2000 South Carolina GOP Primary, so anything can happen.
    When contemplating the deterioration of the Republican party, do party faithfuls simply cling at any sliver of hope to assuage their fears of DEMOCRATIC DOOM? It’s enough to make one tap dance in the men’s room or sing barbershop quartet (I’m talking to you, Mitch).

  68. km4 commented on Sep 2

    “A nation of well informed men who have been taught to know and prize the rights which God has given them cannot be enslaved. It is in the region of ignorance that tyranny begins.” – Ben Franklin

    geckoman more educated and enlightened Americans can identify with this quote however the ineffectual GOP conservative asshats ( like McCain ) and wacko fundamental Christian nutjobs ( like Palin ) piss on it and Americans with contempt because it cuts across their sordid agenda.

  69. Bleebonic commented on Sep 2

    Obama’s Motion To Suppress
    By INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY | Posted Tuesday, September 02, 2008 4:20 PM PT
    Free Speech: It appears Team Obama will stop at nothing to intimidate and harass those who would expose his long and cozy relationship with terrorist William Ayers. As in the ’60s, lefties think freedom of speech applies only to them.

  70. pmorrisonfl commented on Sep 2

    She clearly plays to the same conservative evangelical base that likely delivered (or put within range) the last two elections to the GOP. People seem to think she was picked to woo Hillary voters; I see 3-4 million Republican women who won’t be staying home Nov. 4 because of her, possibly whether or not she’s on the ticket. I think she makes it to Nov. 4, perhaps out of sheer cussedness on her part, and the part of McCain.

  71. BobC commented on Sep 2

    On medias bias in favor of Obama – any links that substantiate this? There are organizations that regularly monitor and report on just such things?

    On Palin – her daughter’s pregnancy is an annoyance. I’m more concerned on McCain’s judgment in picking her. His most effective argument against Obama is his experience. But Palin’s experience is not particularly deep. As she is next in line, if her experience is good enough, then McCain seriously weakens his strongest argument. I’m also surprised that he chose someone that is obviously in lock step with the oil industry. This strikes me as politically risky. Many people believe oil companies are the 21st century robber barons.

    On economic policy. If any of you are so good at predicting the economy, then go out and get rich. Bleating about how Obama will ruin the economy or how McCain is a tool of the rich is just emotional blathering. I haven’t seen too many people that can say with significant accuracy what the economy will be like in a year from now. Lots of speculation and educated guesses but no bankable prognostications.

    I’m not sold on Obama. But McCain’s pick of Palin will make it harder for me to vote for him. Is there a good candidate to give a protest vote to?

  72. mh497 commented on Sep 2

    I second Rich Shinnick’s comments.

    It’s hard to believe this. The NY Times had 3 articles on the cover on the daughter’s baby? Are they out of their minds? Or just praying they pound Palin enough to get her to throw in the towel?

    Obviously, a lot of people are really freaked.

  73. Heidi Przybyla commented on Sep 2

    McCain Sours on His Media `Base’ as Election Nears

    The longtime love affair between John McCain and what he once called his “base” — the national news media — is on the rocks.

    McCain’s top aide, Steve Schmidt, yesterday lashed out at what he deemed “offensive” and “demeaning” coverage and questions from reporters after McCain’s running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, confirmed her 17-year-old daughter is pregnant.

    “It used to be that a lot of those smears and the crap on the Internet stayed out of the newsrooms of serious journalists,” Schmidt said at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota.

    Schmidt’s criticism is the latest example in the unraveling of what was once a fond relationship between the presumptive Republican presidential nominee and the media. Starting in the 2000 Republican primaries, the Arizona senator became a media sensation by chatting up the press in the back of his “Straight Talk Express” campaign bus. The national press corps freely mingled with McCain for hours on the bus, with no topic off limits.

    More recently, though, McCain, 72, has accused news organizations such as the New York Times, Time magazine and the NBC television network of being unfair to him. The campaign even considered pulling out of one of the three presidential debates because it would be moderated by Tom Brokaw, a former NBC News anchorman.

    `Media Scrutiny’

    “McCain’s both been close to and now, to some extent, the object of media scrutiny that he’s never had before,” said Senator John Cornyn, a Texas Republican.

    In one way, the more strained relationship may be an asset for McCain by broadening his appeal to conservative Republicans who believe the media has a liberal bias.

    “There are a lot of people who don’t like the press anymore and think they’re out of control; attacking the messenger isn’t a terrible political strategy,” said Darrell West, a scholar at the Brookings Institution in Washington who has written several books on the mass media.

    Yet it may also have pitfalls. “You still need the press to get your message out, and if you have an antagonistic relationship it can blow up in your face,” West said.

    `Straight Talk’

    As the relationship has deteriorated, McCain has stopped hosting his once-famous “straight talk” get-togethers on his campaign plane. He also has abandoned regular press conferences.

    Instead, he stops occasionally to read short written statements in front of cameras, like he did Aug. 31 in Jackson, Mississippi; then walks away from questions shouted by reporters.

    His campaign plane is custom configured with a lounge area designed for hosting question-and-answer sessions with the press. McCain inaugurated the lounge on one of the plane’s first flights and hasn’t used it since.

    Invitations for the press to visit the Straight Talk Express also have grown scarce. Local reporters are allowed the occasional visit, though journalists traveling with McCain no longer are invited to drop in. He hasn’t held a news conference since Aug. 13.

    Some of the campaign’s new approach may coincide with the bigger role taken by Schmidt, who was close to Karl Rove, a former campaign strategist and White House aide to President George W. Bush, known for keeping a tight grip on press access to his boss.

    `Identified Too Much’

    Tucker Carlson, a conservative media commentator and senior correspondent for MSNBC, said the cooling relationship reflects McCain’s evolution from primary candidate to party nominee. Journalists “identified too much” with McCain, said Carlson, who traveled with the candidate in 2000. The current situation is probably more realistic, he said.

    There have also been a series of public rifts between the campaign and the media. On July 31, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis sparred with MSNBC anchor Andrea Mitchell in an exchange about a McCain campaign ad portraying Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama as a celebrity.

    “I’m happy to talk about more substantive issues the next time I come on your program,” Davis said, capping the testy interview.

    On July 22, the McCain camp assailed the media in an Internet advertisement and an e-mail to supporters.

    `Bizarre Fascination’

    “It’s pretty obvious the media has a bizarre fascination with Barack Obama, some may even say it’s a love affair,” McCain’s campaign said in the e-mail. “The media is in love with Barack Obama. If it wasn’t so serious, it would be funny.”

    On Aug. 17, Davis sent a letter to NBC News President Steve Capus saying the network was “abandoning non-partisan coverage of the presidential race.” Davis said New York-based NBC had made “unsubstantiated, partisan claims” designed “to undercut John McCain.”

    Capus said he spoke with the McCain campaign after he received the letter and “there is no issue in terms of a broader problem.” NBC is owned by Fairfield, Connecticut-based General Electric Co.

    McCain also took a combative stance in an Aug. 27 interview with Time reporters James Carney and Michael Scherer, refusing to answer a question about his definition of honor.

    “Read it in my books,” McCain said. “I’m not going to define it.” That exchange set the tone for the rest of the interview: McCain answered a question about his opinion on premarital sex by saying, “I don’t have any response to that type of question.”

    He added, “Write what you want.”

  74. Bleebonic commented on Sep 2


    Here is the link you requested about media bias.

    Also here is a question for you:

    How many reporters from CBS, ABC, CNN and NBC are digging for dirt on the terrorist William Ayres whose foundation ran through 100 million dollars with no results and Obama at the head,


    the numbers of reporters assigned to research a 22 year old DUI conviction or the pregnancy of a 17 year old in Alaska.

    It is truly a joke. Obama is getting a free ride and the PC choice of the cultural elite.

    . . . as for getting rich, I already am thank you. That is of course until Obama gets in office. Even if McCain gets in office I would still be considered more than Middle Class according to his five million cut of.

  75. Dr N commented on Sep 2

    There are thousands of “ordinary hockey moms” in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, Montana and a few other states. McCain could just as well have picked any one of them. I’m sure some of them are just as good looking.

  76. JP commented on Sep 2

    Stick a fork in her.
    She’s done.

  77. km4 commented on Sep 2

    Bleebonic here’s a book for you

    The Republican Noise Machine: Right-Wing Media and How It Corrupts Democracy

    The author, once notorious as a conservative attack-journalist trashing the likes of Anita Hill and the Clintons, repudiated his past in the confessional Blinded by the Right. In this blistering j’accuse, Brock mounts a less gossipy and more systematic assault on the right-wing media juggernaut of think tanks, publishers, talk radio shows, Web sites and cable networks. He treats it as a disciplined political movement, inspired by Communist subversion techniques, bankrolled by a handful of right-wing zillionaires through corporate and foundation spigots, tightly yoked to the Republican policy agenda and masterminded by arch-conservative Grover Norquist at weekly strategy meetings. By Brock’s account, it constitutes a seamless propaganda machine conveying dubious scholarship, Republican talking points and antiliberal smear campaigns from think tanks and Internet rumor mills to the FOX News and talk radio echo chambers and thence through a network of conservative pundits into the quality press. Meanwhile, Brock charges, the mainstream media, cowed by spurious charges of “liberal bias,” have abandoned their role as objective arbiters of truth in favor of an uncritical airing of partisan ideology in the name of “balance.” The result, he says, is a public discourse in which the line between fact and opinion is blurred, poorly funded liberal voices get shouted down, “no issue can be honestly debated and no election can be fairly decided.”

  78. Doug_S commented on Sep 2

    She brought in, what, ten million dollars in donations in the three days since she was announced. Sure she will withdraw!

    Since the Country is well to the right of McStain, additin of a conservative to his ticket can do nothing but help him.

  79. josie the berry picker commented on Sep 2

    gee am i the only one that likes palin. she seems real unlike obama?! condi? please she is a has been……

  80. Joe commented on Sep 2

    Too bad this thread has gotten very far away from where it should be.

  81. Bleebonic commented on Sep 2

    To Km4,

    Here is a quote from “The New Republic” which is not exactly a conservative publication. Read it and weep.


    The Case Against the Case Against Palin

    A very good friend, who is a lifelong Alaskan and one of the smartest people I know, offers this word of caution to those (yes, like me) inclined to take Sarah Palin lightly:

    At the end of 2005, a close friend called to say that he begun writing speeches and talking points for a certain gubernatorial candidate.

    “Remind me,” I asked. “Who is Sarah Palin?”

    I was dismayed at my friend’s choice of political entree. Why was he wasting his time on a relative nobody, trying to beat an incumbent governor (and former three term senator) in the Republican primary? It was utter folly. “Wait until the big money starts coming in for Murkowski,” I said. “Wait until the party machinery goes to work on Palin. They will eat her for lunch.”

    Murkowski, for his part, expressed a similar view. “If I decide to,” he said, “I will run and I will win. It’s that simple.”

    The folly, of course, turned out to be my own (and Murkowski’s), as Palin slaughtered the incumbent in the primary–posting a 30 point margin of victory–and went on to win the general (over a former Democratic governor) without seeming to break a sweat. She then quickly fulfilled an implicit campaign promise by slapping down ExxonMobil, BP, and ConocoPhillips in negotiations over a proposed Alaska natural gas pipeline, even though they, too, by all accounts, were well prepared to dine on her tender little frame. Not bad for a lightweight.

    Listening to the Democratic leadership respond to John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate, one hears echoes of the Alaska Republican leadership from just a few years ago. Barack Obama’s spokesman, Bill Burton, put it this way: “Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency.” Former mayor? If you’re going to skip over her job as governor and, before that, her job heading the commission that oversees production of the largest petroleum reserves in America, why not “former high school student”? Bah, what does it matter: She’s just a small town mayor, just a hockey mom, just a beauty pageant queen. Palin has never shunned these belittling monikers, in part, I imagine, because the camouflage has served her so well. Soothed by the litany, her opponents tend to sleep too late, sneer too much, and forget who it is that hires them.

    Watching Palin operate over the past few years has been like witnessing a dramatic reading of All the King’s Men. In 2002, Murkowski had interviewed but passed over Palin in selecting a replacement for the senate seat he vacated to become governor. In a grand act of nepotism, he chose his own daughter instead. Palin was tossed a bone: She chaired the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, which oversees the production of petroleum in Alaska. When she reported conflicts of interest and other ethical violations by another commissioner, she was ignored by Murkowski’s chief of staff and ultimately resigned in frustration. One can imagine how the quick double dose of corruption–insiders having their way with the polity and its resources–sickened the young Palin. It also fired a savage competitiveness that is not, perhaps, apparent at first glance.

    What the Republicans missed about Sarah Palin then–and what the Democrats seem poised to miss now–is that she is a true political savant; a candidate with a knack for identifying the key gripes of the populace and packaging herself as the solution. That keen political nose has enabled her to routinely outperform her resume. Nearly two years into her administration, she still racks up approval ratings of 80 per cent or better.

    One might reasonably ask to what extent her local popularity is buoyed by the high price of oil (and thus, a budget surplus, and thus, the ability to carry a stick into meetings with big oil). One might speculate about the durability of her anti-corruption stance in light of her conflict of interest in the dismissal of her director of public safety. And only the truly feckless would not concern themselves about her dearth of foreign policy experience. But in probing this candidate, it would behoove the Democrats and the pundits to shed the notion that they are dealing with some dimwitted bumpkin (Dan Quayle seems to come up a lot lately) who’s going to start crying when they ask her to name the president of Azerbaijan; or that Palin is the townie who was brought into the Skull & Bones initiation night for the amusement of all; or that somehow the prom queen ballots got mixed up with the Alaska gubernatorial poll. Trivialize her at your own peril.

    Sarah Palin is a living reminder that the ultimate source of political power in this country is not the Kennedy School or the Davos Summit or an Ariana Huffington salon; even now, power emanates from the electorate itself. More precisely, power in 2008 emanates from the working class electorates of Pennsylvania and Ohio.

    Sooner or later, the Obama camp will realize that the beauty pageant queen is an enormously talented populist in a year that is ripe for populism. For their own sake, it had better be sooner.

    –Christopher Orr

  82. km4 commented on Sep 2

    2 Top Alaska Newspapers Question Palin’s Fitness

    His paper found a number of leading Republican officeholders in the state who mocked Palin’s qualifications. “She’s not prepared to be governor. How can she be prepared to be vice president or president?” said Lyda Green, the president of the State Senate, a Republican from Palin’s hometown of Wasilla. “Look at what she’s done to this state. What would she do to the nation?”

    Another top Republican, John Harris, the speaker of the House, when asked about her qualifications for Veep, replied with this: “She’s old enough. She’s a U.S. citizen.”

  83. Terry commented on Sep 2

    Short of discovery that Palin is, in fact, a serial killer, I believe McCain will stick with her as his VP candidate. The man makes a stubborn Mississippi mule look like a pushover.

    Where do I put up my money???

  84. Scott in Chicago commented on Sep 2

    As there are 80 some posts this may be redundant, but…. given the stunning ability of Americans to vote against there own interests, I’d say Palin stays on the ticket and it’s a frikkin’ tragic coin toss as to which ticket wins. I am watching the wax works known as the Republican Convention right now, and, man, who knew there was that much embalming fluid in Minnesota, eh? Be afraid people, we could be a heartbeat away from an Ice Billy president.

  85. Scott in Chicago commented on Sep 2

    Winslow states Condi will be the replacement veep?!. I got news, buddy, an old maid lesbian is not, Not, NOT gonna fly with the Repubs…

  86. km4 commented on Sep 2


    The Republican National Convention helps you fall asleep quickly, so watch it right before bed. Be sure you have at least eight hours to devote to sleep before becoming active. Until you know how you’ll react to the Republican National Convention, you should not drive or operate machinery. Do not watch the Republican National Convention with alcohol. Call your doctor right away if after watching the Republican National Convention you walk, drive, eat or engage in other activities while asleep. In rare cases, severe allergic reactions can occur. Most jingoist assholes carry some risk of dependency. Do not use watch the Republican National Convention for extended periods without first talking to your doctor. Side effects may include unpleasant taste, headache, drowsiness and dizziness. For more information, please see the Republican National Convention Medication Guide.

  87. CPJ commented on Sep 2

    I’m posting it here so there is documentable evidence of my position: I am taking a large position in 2008.PRES.McCAIN on Intrade. I don’t have the time nor inclination to attempt to defend my position within these comments. See you on November 5th…

  88. Frank commented on Sep 3

    Good going Barry…you just turned a pretty decent market-focused blog into yet another petty political sounding board. You just couldn’t resist the temptation, could you…

  89. Robert commented on Sep 3

    There is zero chance she will be withdrawn. If you understand McCain’s personality type you understand why.

  90. BobC commented on Sep 3

    Bleebonic – is an unbiased source for showing media favoritism? Puh leeez.

    I would prefer something a little less breathless and a little more academic, maybe something like a research study that encodes the language used in articles in some way so that scores can assigned and objectively compared. You have heard of that sort of thing, haven’t you?

  91. Henry commented on Sep 3

    Given that Palin wasn’t even on those markets as a possible VP pick, we’re now supposed to believe them? Heck no.

  92. Rick commented on Sep 3

    I beleive the Palin pick has made many beleive that Obama is a shoe-in. Obama’s desire for public healthcare, and more social programs requires massive tax revenue. Once in office, capital gains, income taxes will go through the roof. Market down in anticipation.

  93. Rick commented on Sep 3

    Does no one understand that she is a governor. This is an executive office, hence much more like the duties of a president than a Senator (legislative branch). Thus she has more experience than Obama. Pawlenty had to correct Katie Couric tonight when she said Palin had little experience, when in fact Obama more aptly fits that description.

  94. Rich Shinnick commented on Sep 3

    Frank writes:

    “Good going Barry…you just turned a pretty decent market-focused blog into yet another petty political sounding board. You just couldn’t resist the temptation, could you…”

    Actually, Frank, Barry did not turn this blog in to a “petty” anything, the “pettiness” came in the comments AND a “decent market-focused blog” would be remiss if it completely skipped posting on something so significant as the candidates in PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION..whichever way you lean. So, just skip the political posts if you wish, Barry puts up plenty off pure market stuff every day.

  95. Ritchie commented on Sep 3

    Mark E Hoffer: “Face facts that there is only a small difference between these two candidates and in the end whoever gets elected won’t really be working for any of us anyway.”

    Its Bush/Gore all over again. Not a dime’s worth of difference between them in 2000 and no more difference today.

  96. BobC commented on Sep 3

    Rick said: “Does no one understand that she is a governor. ”

    Alaska Population: 670,053 (2006 data)
    This would put Alaska’s population at number 18 in the list of CITIES.

    Alaska 2008 budget 2.9 billion

    Los Angeles Unified School District 2008 Budget – 19.9 billion.

    The superintendent of LA Schools manages a larger organization than Ms. Palin.

  97. CounterClckWise commented on Sep 3

    The spread seems a bit stiff, but still probably worth a sale or two. A lot of the commenters here are saying that she’ll have to withdraw by citing some scandal or media pressure or something, but I fail to see how any of that matters. There is very little short of an indictment that would require her to drop out; from her previous history, and judging by the ecstatic reception she is getting from the conservatives in the Republican Party, shorting this contract looks like a pretty safe bet to me.
    McCain is angling to run a reform ticket, which appeals as much to Republicans who are sick of Bush as it does to independents. Palin strengthens that story. McCain’s giving up the ‘experience’ talking point because it was essentially a losing position, for all the armchair pundits think it powerful. Obama wins in a change vs. experience election. But now, McCain is change too! I think it was a masterful deep post pattern; but it’s way too early to know the outcome.

  98. tradeforkeeps commented on Sep 3


    When a business fails, it’s not unusual for it to fail to file dissolution papers. There’s usually an associated fee to file for dissolution. If the business is going under, paying a state fee is the last thing on the list – especially since the state will automatically dissolve the corporation at some point in the future.

    Not documenting the car wash on a disclosure form is actually the more significant item. Even if the business was a loser, she surely knew she had a stake in it.

  99. Bleebonic commented on Sep 3


    Let me get this straight. You want me to provide you with an unbiased site that outlines the media bias in favor of Obama.

    And you want something a little less breathless and academic.

    Nope, can’t help you although I did appreciate your attempt at sarcasm.

    Some folks feel that sarcasm is the lowest form of wit but I see it as an evolutionary skill that connects people in both a negative and positive way.

    – Bleebonic

  100. Chris Noyes commented on Sep 3

    So her daughter has a bastard child. Obama is a bastard child it’s hard for him to explain that

  101. Richard commented on Sep 3

    McCain spent two days vetting her…that’s good enough for me!!!

  102. Patrick commented on Sep 3

    Why are there 100+ posts about this when the only question was how accurate the prediction markets are (answer: not much)? Of course he’s gonna keep her on the ticket.

    Let’s see.

    She’s pro life. (which is re-affirmed by her pregnant daughter and her child who has downs who they knew had downs previous to birth)

    She’s a “reformer”. Who knows what this means but whatever. It sticks.

    She’s a woman.

    She’s young and talented.

    Of course, she’s been governor for 1.5 years and was previously mayor of a 6k town and McCain is 72 and just might, given the odds, die in office of natural causes, but let’s not get all intellectual about this.

    You really think that McCain is going to go into the last hurrah against one of the finest democratic candidates in decades after already having chosen his VP just because her kid is pregnant? Get real. The Republicans are psyched.

    Psyched, until, at least, Biden destroys her in the debates. I think.

  103. yoganmahew commented on Sep 3

    My, what a long thread. Apologies if the point I am about to make has already been posted. Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and WIlliam Hill are Irish and British bookmakers. I doubt that many people from the US are betting with them. There is a bias in europe against the republican party stretching back to Reagan, but particularly reinforced by Bush Jnr. So the fact that the betting is on Republican disarray shouldn’t surprise and may be more indicative of bias than a rational market.

  104. Dr. Waterbury commented on Sep 3

    about bsneath saying: “liberals will ruin the economy in the name of social engineering…” The much-maligned New Deal created the largest concentration of wealth in the middle class the world has ever seen. Consider the following:

    Annual average 1948-2005, by income level, adjusted for inflation.

    Percentile Under Under
    Democratic Republican
    presidents presidents
    26 years 32 years

    20th +2.64% +0.43%
    40th +2.46 +0.80
    60th +2.47 +1.13
    80th +2.36 +1.38
    95th +2.12 +1.90

    It appears that the American people are much better off when a Democrat is in the White House; all of the economic train wrecks of the last 150 years have happened when Republicans were in power, because they repeatedly do what will benefit the wealthy few rather than the larger population as a whole.

  105. km4 commented on Sep 3

    Jack Cafferty sums up the atmosphere at RNC as the land of make believe.

    For four days, they will labor under the illusion their party is still relevant. It’s not. It is entirely fitting that the headliner for this masquerade is a feeble looking 72-year-old white guy who doesn’t know how many homes he owns. …

    Republicans stand to be turned out of office at every level—from the U.S. Congress to governors’ mansions and state legislatures. Republicans who remain in office will be rendered impotent by their shrinking numbers.

    Republicans under George W. Bush have done a lot of damage to this country in the last eight years—but they have done more damage to themselves. It will take a good long while and a great deal of soul searching before their brand returns to the shelves in good standing. Don’t look for it to happen in St. Paul, Minnesota. This week, Republicans will be happy in the land of make believe.

  106. Dr. Waterbury commented on Sep 3

    You took all of the column spacing out of my comment.

  107. tranchefoot commented on Sep 3

    For crying out loud, people! she and her husband apparently were active members of the Alaska Independence Party and supported the secession of Alaska from the union. This is anti-american activity! I don’t see how she can survive once this becomes well known.

  108. Kirk commented on Sep 3


    Regarding your comment:

    “But since YOU brought up the polls, it was a statistical dead heat 10 days ago, and now its a 50-42% race. (Don’t even try to cherry pick data points with me, son).”

    First of all…

    I ain’t your “son”…it is degrading and you know it. I could say more…but I will stay above that level.


    DON’T IGNORE the point I made. I did not bring up “polls” as you say. Using YOUR data source…Intrade…NOT POLLS…McCain is a movin’ on up. And you and I know full well the difference between polls and Intrade.

    Stick to the markets and you and I will get along just fine.

  109. Greg0658 commented on Sep 3

    Doc – its the software … try this next time

    ………….26 years…..32 years


    thanks for the quintiles, but something tells me that over that 57 years the last 24 years of quintiles in the lower end of the wage spectrum would not look so rosey and visavera much better on the top

  110. Mike in NOLa commented on Sep 3

    I’m glad Barry said to keep politics out of the comments. Hate to imagine what that would have spawned. But, in fairness, you have to talk a little about the politics to analyze the question.

    I think McCain’s got to keep her, come hell or high water, or he looks weak and dithering. It suppose that’s my answer to BR’s query.

    As for the wisdom of the choice:

    I thought it was a brilliant choice at first. Her qualifications were a match for Obama’s, i.e. very light, but not controversial, and seemingly positive. Choosing a tough, competent woman seemed like it would make it easier for him to get the disaffected Hillary fans and some independents. Her general persona, e.g. lots of kids and being a card-carrying NRA member should also solidify support in the religious right and gun nuts.

    Trouble is, she or whomever is running the campaign is unnecessarily pushing issues they don’t need to push and that risk turning off independents tired of the religious agenda of the past decade, e.g. advocating an abstinence program when she’s got a pregnant teen who demonstrates the fallacy of that approach.(It would be hard for her to say she didn’t teach abstinence to her daughter.) Her background would say to the right that she is in favor of such things without explicitly pushing them.

  111. Dr. Waterbury commented on Sep 3

    To Greg0658:
    Thanks for the tip.
    You’re right, things have been much worse for everyone except the richest Americans since 1980…these figures were meant to show that the middle class and the working poor have ALWAYS done better under Democratic presidents for a very long tome. The idea that handing the economy over to the Democrats will ruin the country is sheer nonsense.

  112. km4 commented on Sep 3

    Barry Goldwater vs the Religious Right

    “I don’t have any respect for the Religious Right.”
    “Every good Christian should line up and kick Jerry Falwell’s ass.”
    “The religious factions will go on imposing their will on others,”
    “A woman has a right to an abortion.”
    “I am a conservative Republican,” Barry Goldwater wrote in a 1994 Washington Post essay, “but I believe in democracy and the separation of church and state.”

    Goldwater’s warning to the American people.

    “The religious factions will go on imposing their will on others,” { he said,} “unless the decent people connected to them recognize that religion has no place in public policy. They must learn to make their views known without trying to make their views the only alternatives. . . We have succeeded for 205 years in keeping the affairs of state separate from the uncompromising idealism of religious groups and we mustn’t stop now” { he insisted}. “To retreat from that separation would violate the principles of conservatism and the values upon which the framers built this democratic republic.”

  113. Dr. Waterbury commented on Sep 3

    Here’s another historical comparison between Democratic and Republican administrations:


    Bush l…………..0.7%
    Bush ll………….0.5%

    So tell me again how those supply-side tax cuts for the rich helped the economy, and why anyone would want Republicans in charge of it.

  114. Michael Donnelly commented on Sep 3

    14 cents is too rich, I’d be selling at that price.

    There is probably a .1% chance a typical VP pick is pulled off the ticket. So 1% would be insanely high and 10% is just the market inable to discern a true probability.

  115. Greg0658 commented on Sep 3

    Doc you just got hit by the other typesetting downfall in here … a proportional typeface … O uses more space than I

  116. Alfred commented on Sep 3

    This is not Old Mac’s decision in the first place. The Texas oil mafia picked her for him.

  117. Dr. Waterbury commented on Sep 3

    Michael, are you serious, or are you kidding? I was pretty sure I typed time, not tome!

  118. winslow commented on Sep 3

    Can you imagine how the Rebublicans would have reacted if Obama had seleced a VP such as Palin. They would have crucified her and Obama.
    In other words, we need a completely different political system in this country.
    Hello, this system is not working.

  119. Zephyr commented on Sep 3

    Obama has no real experience, but he is a smart guy and will be surrounded by experienced advisors. I expect he will do alright. Palin has more executive experience, but like obama, she lacks substantial experience. Like Obama, she would have to rely on advisors. The truth is that all presidents must rely heavily on advisors.

    However, our rivals in the world would take advantage of either Palin or Obama as president.

  120. Whammer commented on Sep 3

    I sure hope that everyone who is enamored with Palin’s “executive experience” as the governor of Alaska didn’t vote for Bob Dole when he ran against the President of the United States…..

  121. zackattack commented on Sep 3

    I look at this, caring nothing at all for politics, and see this generation’s Thomas Eagleton incident.

    Every rock you look under is just more trailer-trashy nutbaggery.

  122. Bleebonic commented on Sep 3

    The odds are now zero.

  123. Zephyr commented on Sep 4

    I no longer think that Palin would be a pushover…

    I do now worry about ZerObama being leader of anything beyond his own fan club.

  124. Zephyr commented on Sep 4

    I no longer think that Palin would be a pushover…

    I do now worry about ZerObama being leader of anything beyond his own fan club.

  125. Rockitz commented on Sep 4

    All you libs bid up this contract so I can make some money selling it. Intrade commissions are pretty steep so make it worth my while. The only way she won’t be on the ticket in November is if she dies before then. The only shame is that she isn’t at the top of the ticket.

    Rush Limbaugh deserves a lot of credit for initiating the grand strategy now being played out this election year by the GOP since the McCain primary win (that part is the only major disappointment). Between the brilliance of Operation Chaos which

    1) kept Obama from running away with the nomination when he had an almost unstoppable momentum,
    2) kept Obama and Hillary at each others throats far longer than imaginable exposing the slimy side of each, and
    3) made it impossible for there to ever be a Obama/Clinton ticket


    the John McCain team (I doubt John was behind this) being intelligent enough to pick a VP who is

    1) a woman to pull women from left and right to fill the chasm left by Hillary’s absence on the Dem side,
    2) a conservative to appeal to the base, and
    3) a hot woman who shoots guns to energize men from the right,

    this has all of the elements of a landslide in the making. I don’t care how much money Obama has, IMHO he’s toast. A shrewd choice indeed!

  126. rational commented on Sep 4

    Rockitz, you forgot to mention these about Rush Limbaugh:

    1) Created the world in 3 days
    2) Walked on water
    3) Turned water into wine

    Now we wish he could only make his pain go away without taking illegal drugs.

  127. hr commented on Sep 4

    rational, you forgot to mention these about Barack Obama:

    1) Created the world in 3 days
    2) Walked on water
    3) Turned water into wine

    Now we wish he could only make his pain go away without taking illegal drugs (cocaine, according to his memoir).

  128. Concerned commented on Sep 4

    For God’s sake. The news coming out today about Palin is incredible. God’s work in Iraq? Jews deserve terrorism? There’s a few Youtube videos of her ranting in a fundamentalist church. It makes Obama’s minister look like JC. How can I place a bet on this withdrawal trade? If he keeps her …………….

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