CFOs: Recession to Last Another Year

CFOs — more circumspect, and less likely to cheerlead than their CEO colleagues — are as negative as they have been in the history of the Duke Optimisim survey, falling to 71.5%.

Highlights include:

• A record 81 percent of U.S. CFOs are more pessimistic about the economy this quarter (twice as many as last quarter), and 85 percent of European and Asian CFOs are more pessimistic.

• Nearly 60 percent of CFOs say the U.S. economic recovery will be delayed until the fourth quarter of 2009 or later, while 71 percent of European CFOs expect Europe’s recovery to be delayed until at least the fourth quarter of 2009

• Employment is expected to fall by 5 percent in the U.S. and Europe in 2009, and by 0.5 percent in Asia. Capital spending is expected to fall by about 10 percent in all regions

• Weak consumer demand and financial market woes are major concerns for CFOs around the world. More than 70 percent of U.S. and European firms are concerned about the state of their financial institutions. Among users of financial derivatives, 75 percent are concerned about the risk of default


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CFO Optimism Index: Quarterly History


CFO Optimism Index: Key Measures

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Sources:
CFO Survey: Historic Recession to Last Another Year
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
http://news.duke.edu/2008/12/cfo.html

CFO Magazine Survey
Survey Director, John Graham, Finance Professor, Duke University
http://www.cfosurvey.org/

The ‘Six Months From Now’ Fallacy
David Gaffen
WSJ Market Beat, December 15, 2008, 1:42 pm
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/12/15/the-six-months-from-now-fallacy/

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