Markets leap up from the open on a better than expected ADP Payroll report.
Given the history of the ADP report’s failure to correlate very well with its bogey (BLS’ Non-Farm Payroll), the reaction is revealing of sentiment, not actual recovery prospects. (Challenger job layoff announcements rose 47% from year-ago levels in April, signaling ongoing deterioration in labor markets). Less bad is the new good.
Any excuse will do to take ’em higher, but after the huge run from March, and as Doug Kass noted yesterday, greed has now replaced fear.
ADP Goes Back to the Drawing Board (January 7th, 2009)