Initial Claims totaled 623k, 5k less than expected but last week was
revised up by 5k to 636k, so a push. Continuing Claims continued higher
and rose to a new record coming in 43k more than estimated. The claims
data continues to be influenced by the goings on in the auto sector both
in terms of auto plant shutdowns and dealer uncertainty and closings.
Apr Durable Goods rose 1.9% headline and .8% ex transports, both well
above expectations BUT Mar was revised much lower. Also, Non Defense
Capital Goods ex Aircraft, the pure cap ex component, fell 1.5% after
dropping 1.4% in Mar. New Orders of vehicles and parts rose after 6 mo’s
of declines and fits with the thesis that the massive inventory drawdown
seen may be followed by replenishment. Shipments, which gets directly
plugged into GDP, fell by .2%. The inventory to shipments ratio did fall
to 1.88 from 1.89 and has been stable at this elevated level since Jan
at the highest levels since ’92.
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Miller Tabak + Co., LLC believes to be reliable, its accuracy and
completeness cannot be guaranteed. This report is for informational
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