In honor of today being David Rosenberg’s last day as Merrill Lynch North American Economist, here are Rosie’s rules to remember (an economist’s dozen):
1. In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be combined with a market call.
2. Never be a slave to the data – they are no substitute for astute observation of the big picture.
3. The consensus rarely gets it right and almost always errs on the side of optimism – except at the bottom.
4. Fall in love with your partner, not your forecast.
5. No two cycles are ever the same.
6. Never hide behind your model.
7. Always seek out corroborating evidence.
8. Have respect for what the markets are telling you.
9. Be constantly aware with your forecast horizon – many clients live in the short run.
10. Of all the market forecasters, Mr. Bond gets it right most often.
11. Highlight the risks to your forecasts.
12. Get the US consumer right and everything else will take care of itself.
13. Expansions are more fun than recessions
(straight from Bob Farrell’s quiver!).
Good luck up north Rosie, your insights will be missed south of the border . . .