Show Me The Shoots or we’ll see a bath tub shaped recovery

Show Me The Shoots, the green shoots that is. It is what every investor is watching and looking for as we begin Q2 earnings season, with guidance being of the utmost importance. The shape of the 2nd half recovery will hopefully get some clarity. Since I believe consumer spending will remain punk, if inventory restocking doesn’t rebound much after the inventory destocking, a bath tub shaped recovery (a stretched out U) we will have instead of a V or W. The MBA said after an 80% drop from the recent highs, refi’s bounced 15.2% while purchases rose 6.7% to the highest since early April as mortgage rates remained steady. ABC confidence fell 1 point to -52, 2 points from its record low as a rise in Personal Finances was offset by a drop in Buying Climate. New lending in China in June totaled 1.53T yuan and brings the total YTD to 7.37T and vs 4.9T for all of ’08 and highlights the enormity of the stimulus. The 10 yr note auction is key today.

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