Don’t ignore China anymore

While many are surprised by the pullback in global equities this morning, people forgot last week what lifted the global economy off the mat in March and that was China. Chinese stocks as of Friday fell 12% over the past week and a half, with the S&P’s mostly ignoring that correction, and another 5.8% today. An earnings miss from Ping An, a large Chinese insurance company led the decline and the rest of Asia sold off also in response to Q2 GDP in Japan that rose less than expected but was the first positive report in 5 quarters. Global bond markets, the US$ and the Yen are the beneficiaries as was seen during the Sept thru March time frame. The US consumer is also of concern on the heels of last week’s weak retail sales and consumer confidence data as LOW missed both revenue and earnings estimates. A stock market correction has been well overdue with the degree of buying on the dip now being the real question with sentiment clearly bullish. The Aug NY Fed survey, June TIC data and the Aug NAHB survey are the key data points today.

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