NFP: Upside or Downside Surprise?

I am hitting the road to got to David Kotok’s Shadow Federal Reserve meeting in Grand Lake Stream, Maine (I will have access to internet while up north).

Before I head off to La Guardia, I wanted to post these two charts.


Looking at the ADP and Challenger data suggests payrolls might be better than expected:

(Thanks MH!)


But looking at Bruce Murray’s analysis (He is CEO of WANTED USA), we reach a different conclusion:


Bruce adds:

Following up from our prior exchange, our July forecast for Non-Farm payrolls shows a loss of 440,000 jobs. More information is here:, and I’ve pasted a chart below.

If you are interested in following our forecasts of monthly changes in US Non-Farm Employment, you can find them here:

Because we use data collected from online job boards, we can produce a forecast earlier than other estimates. (Ours comes out two weeks prior to the BLS figures.) Also, over the past 30 months, our forecasts have been more accurate than the so-called “Consensus Estimates.”

The data we collect is also supplied to The Conference Board which uses it to produce its monthly Help Wanted Online Data Series. That’s here:

I am inclined towards the latter argument . . .

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