Revised GDP: -1.0%

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first revision (the “preliminary” report) of Q2 GDP.

Consensus is that the original print (“advance” report) of minus 1% will be revised downwards to -1.5% quarter/quarter, as we get updates on Personal consumption, gross private investment, government consumption, and the difference between exports and imports, mostly to the downside. (The green shoots crowd is looking for a greater than expected inventory reduction)

I am looking for a revised -2%.

I will update this when GDP hits. Updated:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the second quarter of 2009, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 6.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the decrease in real GDP was also 1.0 percent.

The decrease in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential fixed investment, and exports that were partly offset by positive contributions from federal government spending and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.”

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