I have not crunched the numbers of Barron’s Big Money Poll — but I am curious if it operates as a reliable contrary indicator.
I would need to look at 30 years or so of the data to draw any statistically valid conclusion.
However, I cannot help but look at the amusing graphic that accompanies the article and wonder a bit about the contrary interpretation; At least the title — Treading Carefully — is more circumspect than the graphic!:
AMERICA’S MONEY MANAGERS are still bullish about stocks, even after a blistering eight-month rally. But they also know from recent experience that trees don’t grow to the sky, and bears don’t disappear; they merely hibernate. So call our latest crop of Big Money bulls hopeful but cautious, too, about how much life is left in this rally, and how many bargains remain.
Nearly 60% of the professional investment managers responding to Barron’s fall Big Money poll say they are bullish or very bullish about the stock market’s prospects through the middle of next year. That’s the same percentage of bulls as in our spring survey, and a sure sign the pros regarded the market as severely oversold when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 6547 in early March — a 12-year low.
Today’s bullish investors see the major stock indexes making steady progress through next June, amid signs the U.S. economy is on the mend after a searing recession. The latest evidence came Thursday, when the government reported that U.S. gross domestic product grew 3.5% in this year’s third quarter, spurred by stimulus spending. That is the first uptick in a year.
Go back to the Q1 Survey and see how Bullish, as a group, the money managers were . . .
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click for larger graphic
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Source:
Treading Carefully
JACK WILLOUGHBY
Barron’s NOVEMBER 2, 2009
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125694262091319627.html
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