Buoyant Market

This is one tough market to keep down.

But I want to reiterate that I do not believe that this is Mr. Market anticipating a full economic recovery (and I see Mish agrees).

As noted last week, we can look at this in two distinct phases: Part 1 was the typical recession bear market — from late October 2007 to early September¬† 2008 (pre-Lehman). That was down from 14,200 to about 11,500, and lasted about ~10 months.

Phase II was the world ending, economic system collapsing, 5,000 point fall from 11,500 to 6,500 over the next 6 months.

I believe — or at least rationalize after the fact — that the rally off of the lows reflects the unwinding of that 5,000 point anticipation of Armageddon.


Recession Bear Market vs Armageddon ?

DOW 2007 - 09


What Does the Economy Have to Do with the Market? (October 6th, 2009)

The Most Hated Rally in Wall Street History (October 8th, 2009)

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