Consumer Confidence down and Present Situation hits lowest level

The Oct Consumer Confidence # was a weaker than expected 47.7, almost 6 pts below forecasts and down from 53.4 in Sept. While the headline figure is still well above the bottom of 25.3 back in Feb, the Present Situation fell to the lowest level since Feb 1983. Expectations fell 8 pts to 65.7 but are still more than twice the lows and the discrepancy between the two highlights the still very difficult consumer position today with hopes for a better future. All signs point to the tough labor market for the subdued confidence as those that said jobs were Plentiful fell .2 pts and those that said jobs were Hard to Get rose 2.6 pts, both to levels last seen in ’83. Those that plan to buy a home within 6 mo’s fell a touch to near the lowest since ’82 and those that plan to buy a car also fell slightly. One year inflation expectations were unchanged at 5.3% vs the 20 yr average of 4.7%.

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