Is the Recession Over?

Floyd Norris highlights a survey that implies globally, the recession is over:

The worldwide recession appears to have ended, with surveys showing manufacturing activity is on the rise nearly everywhere.

“It is the emerging markets that are leading, with the U.S. following and Europe lagging,” said Chris Williamson, the chief economist of Markit, a company that surveys manufacturers in many countries.

Regular readers know my aversion for asking Humans questions, and then drawing big conclusions. We tend to read too much into the answers, which history has shown to be unreliable.

Still, the surveys “have a reputation for showing turns in the economy, often before other indicators do.” The chart (below) implies things are not only less bad, but actually starting to improve in places.

I remain less than fully convinced, but willing to recognize that in some sectors and regions, the economy is improving. For example, luxury spending jumped 29% this quarter from last. (Most be that $23B in Goldman bonuses getting spent!)



Chart courtesy of NYT


By Some Reliable Measures, Recession Is Over
NYT, October 16, 2009

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