September NFP

Today we get another Employment Situation report. At this point, I am bored silly by the machinations that surround them.

Here is what we know: The data has been very negative, though less so lately. We are no longer losing 500k + jobs a month, and the deep, near million job losses were in the middle of credit crunch and market collapse.

The jobless rate probably rose this month again, likely hitting a 26-year high, the worst seen since 1983.

Unemployment was 9.7%, and if it hits 10%, thjere is the possibility of a trader over reaction. Consensus is for 9.8% U3, and a payroll drop of 175,000 workers (forecasts ranged from declines of 100,000 to 260,000. Total lost jobs could hit 7.2 million, the worst since the Depression.

As noted yesterday, we are unlikely to return to full pre-recession employment until 2017.

The good news is if that 175k number is hit, it would be the smallest drop in 13 months. Call it the soft prejudice of low expectations.

Watch Temporary help, Hours worked, and the Wages for as the leading components of this lagging indicator . . .

Employment situation is out at 8:30



Post-Recession Employment Arithmetic (October 1, 2009)

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