Confidence rises but labor market remains tough

Nov Confidence was 49.5 up from 48.7 in Oct and above estimates of 47.3 but still remains below the high this year of 54.8 in May. The rise was all on the Expectations side which rose 1.5 pts. Present Situation was down .1 to the lowest level since ’83. Those that said jobs were Plentiful fell to the lowest since Feb ’83 while those that said jobs were Hard To Get rose to the highest since May ’83 and this likely explains why the current situation is so subdued. Those that plan to buy a home within 6 mo’s fell to the lowest since Oct ’82, even with low mortgage rates, sharply lower prices and the extension of the home buying tax credit. Those that plan to buy a car within 6 mo’s fell to the lowest since Mar. Those that said Business Conditions will get better over 6 mo’s fell .8 pts but those that said it will get worse also fell 3 pts. Because confidence is anecdotal in nature, we have to see what actions will follow these words with holiday sales

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